Topic: CarlesPuyol Sports picks and reviews. 536W - 120L. Join the winning team - page 60. (Read 50485 times)
May 23, 2016, 03:18:38 AM
welcome back sir carles another nice idea making some fewer losses i think it is also a good reference for those who's not sure to go and bet with parlays giving your idea if the bet is risky or not thanks again i'm happy seeing you back.
May 23, 2016, 02:35:42 AM
goodluck to you Carles..
its to see you come back again..and i believe you will have more profit..stay away from martingale for now..
its to see you come back again..and i believe you will have more profit..stay away from martingale for now..
May 22, 2016, 05:12:50 PM
Much better strategy, now if you are confident in picks you can bet more regardless of the results of the last bet.
One other suggestion, it may make things a little more complicated, but can help a little since you are good at tennis (which is not usually 1.9-2 odds) and do some of these parlays that don't have ridiculous payouts is to adjust the bet amounts slightly based on the odds.
The idea is that you should be more confident in a bet that has 1.5 odds than one with 1.8 odds, regardless of whether you classify is low/medium/high confidence since it is an easier bet. To take advantage of this when the odds are below 2 you bet enough to WIN your bet amount, instead of just betting the set amount. So if you have a low confidence pick with 1.5 odds, you bet enough to win 1% instead of just 1% that way you can still bank some profit when you are correct on low odds picks.
Good luck.
One other suggestion, it may make things a little more complicated, but can help a little since you are good at tennis (which is not usually 1.9-2 odds) and do some of these parlays that don't have ridiculous payouts is to adjust the bet amounts slightly based on the odds.
The idea is that you should be more confident in a bet that has 1.5 odds than one with 1.8 odds, regardless of whether you classify is low/medium/high confidence since it is an easier bet. To take advantage of this when the odds are below 2 you bet enough to WIN your bet amount, instead of just betting the set amount. So if you have a low confidence pick with 1.5 odds, you bet enough to win 1% instead of just 1% that way you can still bank some profit when you are correct on low odds picks.
Good luck.
May 22, 2016, 03:34:57 PM
Thanks guys. Hope to get some profit with you.
Tennis
3% - 0.015
Rosol, Lukas vs. Wawrinka, Stan
1.06
Dimitrov, Grigor vs. Troicki, Viktor
1.56
Total odds: 1.65 Lose
Tennis
3% - 0.015
Rosol, Lukas vs. Wawrinka, Stan
1.06
Dimitrov, Grigor vs. Troicki, Viktor
1.56
Total odds: 1.65 Lose
May 22, 2016, 03:10:07 PM
Good to see your back, with a much better method! Have you considered allowing an "investment" opportunity where we can send bitcoins to you and you will bet on all your picks using your new method? Would be a lot better for some people who might miss your live picks, or miss some of your pre-live picks due to time zone issues. I would definitely participate (just don't take 25% of the profit like a previous pot did)
May 22, 2016, 02:27:27 PM
Nice!. I like you picks and just in time for the French open. Good luck! 
May 22, 2016, 02:24:31 PM
yesss the ;legend is back ! cant wait for the new experiemtn as this new system is a much better way of managing your bankroll rather than the martingale u use previously hope all the best for you and success !!! 
May 22, 2016, 02:13:46 PM
Next pick:
Live
1% of bankroll
HAPOEL TEL AVIV vs. HAPOEL JERUSALEM +9.5 @ 1.9 WIN
Live
1% of bankroll
HAPOEL TEL AVIV vs. HAPOEL JERUSALEM +9.5 @ 1.9 WIN
May 22, 2016, 01:35:23 PM
Good to see you back at it, cheers!
May 22, 2016, 01:21:52 PM
Hi again my friends.
After the failure in martingale system, I will continue trying to publicly build my bankroll, with safer method.
My starting bankroll is 0.5BTC
Maximum bet will be 3% of my bankroll which is 0.015BTC for now.
I will choose the amount by the system below:
1% of the amount - Low confident picks
2% of the amount - Medium confident picks
3% of the amount - High confident picks
I will also sometimes bet in live so you need to fast.
First double:
3% of bankroll - 0.015BTC
22 May 2016 20:30 Basketball: AUT ABL, Playoffs WBC Raiffeisen Wels vs. Arkadia Traiskirchen Lions @ 1.36 Open
22 May 2016 21:30 Basketball: FRA Pro A, Playoffs AS Monaco vs. Asvel Basket Points Spread: 1(-2.5) 1.29 Open
Total odds @ 1.75
After the failure in martingale system, I will continue trying to publicly build my bankroll, with safer method.
My starting bankroll is 0.5BTC
Maximum bet will be 3% of my bankroll which is 0.015BTC for now.
I will choose the amount by the system below:
1% of the amount - Low confident picks
2% of the amount - Medium confident picks
3% of the amount - High confident picks
I will also sometimes bet in live so you need to fast.
First double:
3% of bankroll - 0.015BTC
22 May 2016 20:30 Basketball: AUT ABL, Playoffs WBC Raiffeisen Wels vs. Arkadia Traiskirchen Lions @ 1.36 Open
22 May 2016 21:30 Basketball: FRA Pro A, Playoffs AS Monaco vs. Asvel Basket Points Spread: 1(-2.5) 1.29 Open
Total odds @ 1.75
May 22, 2016, 01:20:17 PM
First double:
3% of bankroll - 0.015BTC
22 May 2016 20:30 Basketball: AUT ABL, Playoffs WBC Raiffeisen Wels vs. Arkadia Traiskirchen Lions @ 1.36 Open
22 May 2016 21:30 Basketball: FRA Pro A, Playoffs AS Monaco vs. Asvel Basket Points Spread: 1(-2.5) 1.29 Open
Total odds @ 1.75 Lost
3% of bankroll - 0.015BTC
22 May 2016 20:30 Basketball: AUT ABL, Playoffs WBC Raiffeisen Wels vs. Arkadia Traiskirchen Lions @ 1.36 Open
22 May 2016 21:30 Basketball: FRA Pro A, Playoffs AS Monaco vs. Asvel Basket Points Spread: 1(-2.5) 1.29 Open
Total odds @ 1.75 Lost
May 22, 2016, 12:39:43 PM
What happened
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
Someone attempting martingale with -ev bets reached the result anyone who has taken half a statistics class knew would happen.
one of the plus sides of putting everything out here like this is that this thread is one of the best betting threads in this forum in terms of listing exact bets and odds and payouts.
My advice for anyone trying to come up with a new "system" (including carles) would be to come up with a strategy, and apply it to all the bets made in this thread (or the bets that you have made in the past.) It won't be a perfect test to see i it works, but it can at least show you if it would have survived this stretch.
Bookies make money by offering you -ev bets. The only way to beat them is to find out when they make mistakes and offer you bets that are +ev for you. the best way to take advantage of tha tis to be good athandicappingsports, and to bet more on the bets you are more sure about and less on the bets. you are less sure about
You say here very wise words Phildo.
It was just an experiment that unfortunately failed.
Very soon I will continue this thread with an old-new strategy of building bankroll.
May 22, 2016, 08:00:24 AM
What happened
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
Someone attempting martingale with -ev bets reached the result anyone who has taken half a statistics class knew would happen.
one of the plus sides of putting everything out here like this is that this thread is one of the best betting threads in this forum in terms of listing exact bets and odds and payouts.
My advice for anyone trying to come up with a new "system" (including carles) would be to come up with a strategy, and apply it to all the bets made in this thread (or the bets that you have made in the past.) It won't be a perfect test to see i it works, but it can at least show you if it would have survived this stretch.
Bookies make money by offering you -ev bets. The only way to beat them is to find out when they make mistakes and offer you bets that are +ev for you. the best way to take advantage of tha tis to be good athandicappingsports, and to bet more on the bets you are more sure about and less on the bets. you are less sure about
May 22, 2016, 12:24:14 AM
What happened
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
Carles tends to take breaks between experiments, I think that he will come back when he has a new goal/method of betting. My guess is that he has gone to practice a bit before sharing his picks with the public.
If you want to see more of his predictions, look through his post history.
May 21, 2016, 05:48:09 PM
What happened
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
No, just that the experiment did not work as planned. Almost but not too 100%. Very close just Raptors fuct it up for his bets too many times....Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
Should of stuck to tennis matches.
May 21, 2016, 05:34:06 PM
What happened
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
...Thread is dead?
Seems like he has lost all of his money and life savings on gambling here, right?
May 14, 2016, 11:35:04 PM
Well that's too bad, I still think it was pretty great achievement he almost made it to 100% ROI using this method, but ok maybe some ppl are right and it would be smarter to just bet regular way and not martingale it
Not sure how doing exactly what any math textbook says will happen if you try martingale is an accomplishment.
It's a great way to win a few bucks at a time, until it doesn't work and you lose all that money that you won and then some more.
I guess it was nice to see a real life example so hopefully the next person doesn't do it, but why did someone have to burn some cash to figure it out?
Because Carles can afford to lose that money, and it's always good to try an experiment.
Also, the experiment could have payed off well if it worked. Unfortunately, it didn't, but at least now we found a way that doesn't work. I look forward to Carles' next method and attempt.
It's not good to try an experiment for something that is known (unless you are doing a 6th grade science fair project.) Anyone who has a taken a statistics class knew what the result of this experiment would be.
Yes, but if Carles was really lucky, he could've come out on top. It's like his all in strategy he used to do; we all know that going all in will eventually lead to a loss, but Carles wants to see if he has enough luck and skill to win enough in a row. It would've been possible in theory. Of course, if he did it for too long, it would eventually lead to a loss, which it did.
You don't win at sports betting by being lucky, you win by being good. And no matter how lucky he could have been, he would have ended up better off financially (which is what matters when we are talking about sports betting) by picking a strategy that isn't proven to be useless.
How anyone would set out on a strategy where 5 wins in a row nets you 25 bucks and five losses in a row costs you $125 is beyond me.
Yes, you are right; sports betting is won by being good, however it does take a bit of luck as well.
If more of his picks were correct, the martingale could've worked. However, I think that you are right that his strategy wasn't the most viable, that's probably why he has stopped and is probably now thinking of a different strategy to use.
But he discovered for himself that it really doesn't work, which I guess is good too. The all in strategy wasn't great either, but like I said, I think he just wanted to find out for himself if it could've paid off. Anyways, I'm going to wait and see what Carles tries next.
May 14, 2016, 11:09:52 PM
Well that's too bad, I still think it was pretty great achievement he almost made it to 100% ROI using this method, but ok maybe some ppl are right and it would be smarter to just bet regular way and not martingale it
Not sure how doing exactly what any math textbook says will happen if you try martingale is an accomplishment.
It's a great way to win a few bucks at a time, until it doesn't work and you lose all that money that you won and then some more.
I guess it was nice to see a real life example so hopefully the next person doesn't do it, but why did someone have to burn some cash to figure it out?
Because Carles can afford to lose that money, and it's always good to try an experiment.
Also, the experiment could have payed off well if it worked. Unfortunately, it didn't, but at least now we found a way that doesn't work. I look forward to Carles' next method and attempt.
It's not good to try an experiment for something that is known (unless you are doing a 6th grade science fair project.) Anyone who has a taken a statistics class knew what the result of this experiment would be.
Yes, but if Carles was really lucky, he could've come out on top. It's like his all in strategy he used to do; we all know that going all in will eventually lead to a loss, but Carles wants to see if he has enough luck and skill to win enough in a row. It would've been possible in theory. Of course, if he did it for too long, it would eventually lead to a loss, which it did.
You don't win at sports betting by being lucky, you win by being good. And no matter how lucky he could have been, he would have ended up better off financially (which is what matters when we are talking about sports betting) by picking a strategy that isn't proven to be useless.
How anyone would set out on a strategy where 5 wins in a row nets you 25 bucks and five losses in a row costs you $125 is beyond me.
May 14, 2016, 10:58:39 PM
Well that's too bad, I still think it was pretty great achievement he almost made it to 100% ROI using this method, but ok maybe some ppl are right and it would be smarter to just bet regular way and not martingale it
Not sure how doing exactly what any math textbook says will happen if you try martingale is an accomplishment.
It's a great way to win a few bucks at a time, until it doesn't work and you lose all that money that you won and then some more.
I guess it was nice to see a real life example so hopefully the next person doesn't do it, but why did someone have to burn some cash to figure it out?
Because Carles can afford to lose that money, and it's always good to try an experiment.
Also, the experiment could have payed off well if it worked. Unfortunately, it didn't, but at least now we found a way that doesn't work. I look forward to Carles' next method and attempt.
It's not good to try an experiment for something that is known (unless you are doing a 6th grade science fair project.) Anyone who has a taken a statistics class knew what the result of this experiment would be.
Yes, but if Carles was really lucky, he could've come out on top. It's like his all in strategy he used to do; we all know that going all in will eventually lead to a loss, but Carles wants to see if he has enough luck and skill to win enough in a row. It would've been possible in theory. Of course, if he did it for too long, it would eventually lead to a loss, which it did.
May 13, 2016, 04:21:13 PM
Too bad that it seems charles lost this bet. Oklahoma city thunder won the match so he lost his parlay. Spurs was doing great at the 3rd quarter , I thought they could have win the game but oklahoma was greater in the 4th quarter, so determined to win the game. This is a great thread although this end up not so well charles
Yeah, NBA playoff is unpredictable though. I have bet on Spurs too following CarlesPuyol bets on that match versus Oklahoma and i lose it, gonna wait for the next bet.
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