I wonder in reality has sunk in for Matt. He put his rep and $100K on the line for a complete douche ponzi scammer.
But but but...
He didn't say he wouldn't pay. If we just wait, he might be able to pay in a couple weeks, right?
As I recall, the bet was that Pirate would payout as he had promised. A post-default payout is completely different from what he promised and vastly inferior to it. There might be some wiggle room there that will require a close reading of the terms of the bet and the post referenced in it. (For the record, this ambiguity is one of the main reasons I didn't take Matthew's bet. Well, that and the whole thing about not betting money you can't afford to lose.)
We'll have to work this all out once we know exactly what winds up happening.
Last post from Matthew on his bet thread.
Thank you everyone for showing a huge amount of integrity to bet for your beliefs instead of just arguing, defaming, accusing, aggravating, etc. Many of you truly believe Pirate is a ponzi, many of you are simply utilizing my offer for hedging, and still others are simply happy to take a 50/50 chance bet on anything. Regardless, we are at the 10,000BTC mark and thus I am locking the thread so that no more bets can be received here.
I still believe there is a very high chance that Pirate is just doing a business which we don't understand, and my sinking gut, although questioning his lack of professionalism, lateness, etc, reminds me that no one is perfect and it may all just be a series of bad coincidences. I hope I am right and that I am able to prove to the community once and for all that what we don't understand is not always a scam. If I happen to be wrong, I'm happy to have enjoyed this entertaining time with everyone, and I've actually made quite a lot of new friends (as you can imagine).
The original OP states that the bet ends 3 weeks after August 19, 2012, 04:49:20 PM, so that means it ends on September 9th, 2012, 04:49:20 PM KST (Korean Standard Time, local to me). I think I had mentioned a slightly longer deadline elsewhere on IRC out of confusion (September 12th perhaps?), but this is incorrect as you can clearly see. The bet will also end if Pirate has provided proof of paying back all (not 99.9%) of his obligated debts and interests per agreements, whichever comes first.
Good luck to everyone and thank you for participating in this monumental lesson for all of us.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1128484Bold is mine. There is no wiggle room. Either Pirate pays back 100% with interest by the Sept. 9th or he loses. Simple as that.
Pirate has defaulted twice. This isn't looking good for Matt.