Topic: Challenge: What's the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC? - page 3. (Read 15977 times)
Hmm just thought about it, has OP yet paid the prize he has claimed to pay to the best method or is he still searching for more strats?
Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x
Playing at 9900x
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x
Playing at 9900x
If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC
The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.
I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.
hehehe yeah.
Here's a plot of the probability of doubling up against the payout multiplier you use:
I'd love an explanation of why it tops out at 0.496522222!
Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x
Playing at 9900x
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x
Playing at 9900x
If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC
The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.
I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.
hehehe yeah.
Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x
Playing at 9900x
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x
Playing at 9900x
If you win your first bet you stop with a profit of 9899 * 0.0001 = 0.9899 BTC
The goal is to make a profit of 1 BTC.
I think you need to play with a higher multiplier or something.
Let's set the payout multiplier (m) and work everything out from there.
m = 10001, say
The probability (c) of a bet winning at that multiplier is:
c = 0.99 / m
The starting bet to win 1 BTC at multiplier m is:
a = 1.0 / (m - 1)
The amount we need to multiply the stake by when we lose to maintain the same net profit is:
r = (1+a) / ((m-1)*a) = a+1 = m / (m - 1)
The stake on the nth bet will be:
a * r ** (n-1)
The sum of stakes for the first n bets will be:
a * (1 - r**n) / (1 - r)
The number of bets we can afford to make is:
math.floor(math.log((a - 1 + r) / a, r)) = math.floor(math.log(2, r))
The probability of winning in the first n bets will be:
(1 - (1 - c) ** n)
And so the probability of doubling up successfully is:
(1 - (1 - c) ** math.floor(math.log(2, r)))
Using this we can quickly calculate the chance of doubling up for various payout multipliers:
I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.
What's the significance of that 49.65222222222% number?
Initial bet : 0.0001BTC
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x
Playing at 9900x
With a bankroll of 1BTC, the player can afford 6912 rolls.
Chance to win is 49.90770579% on 1% edge. ?
or is it 49.5567818%?
On lose multiply by : 1.0001010101x
Playing at 9900x
With a bankroll of 1BTC, the player can afford 6912 rolls.
Chance to win is 49.90770579% on 1% edge. ?
or is it 49.5567818%?
Good discussion about math behind a dicegame.
Full of probability and statistics.
I like that...
Full of probability and statistics.
I like that...
How about this:
bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning = 100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%
Edit: here are the 64 bets:
chance multiplier
1.0664% 92.83570893x
bet # stake total lost profit
----- ---------- ----------- ----------
1 0.01088902 1.00000087
2 0.01100759 0.01088902 1.00000081
3 0.01112745 0.02189661 1.00000065
4 0.01124861 0.03302406 1.00000001
5 0.01137110 0.04427267 1.00000036
6 0.01149492 0.05564377 1.00000036
7 0.01162009 0.06713869 1.00000051
8 0.01174662 0.07875878 1.00000040
9 0.01187453 0.09050540 1.00000048
10 0.01200383 0.10237993 1.00000031
11 0.01213454 0.11438376 1.00000032
12 0.01226667 0.12651830 1.00000004
13 0.01240025 0.13878497 1.00000078
14 0.01253527 0.15118522 1.00000019
15 0.01267177 0.16372049 1.00000049
16 0.01280975 0.17639226 1.00000021
17 0.01294924 0.18920201 1.00000063
18 0.01309024 0.20215125 1.00000022
19 0.01323278 0.21524149 1.00000024
20 0.01337687 0.22847427 1.00000007
21 0.01352254 0.24185114 1.00000091
22 0.01366978 0.25537368 1.00000026
23 0.01381863 0.26904346 1.00000022
24 0.01396910 0.28286209 1.00000011
25 0.01412121 0.29683119 1.00000014
26 0.01427498 0.31095240 1.00000051
27 0.01443042 0.32522738 1.00000047
28 0.01458755 0.33965780 1.00000020
29 0.01474640 0.35424535 1.00000075
30 0.01490697 0.36899175 1.00000041
31 0.01506929 0.38389872 1.00000021
32 0.01523338 0.39896801 1.00000024
33 0.01539926 0.41420139 1.00000057
34 0.01556694 0.42960065 1.00000032
35 0.01573645 0.44516759 1.00000045
36 0.01590780 0.46090404 1.00000005
37 0.01608102 0.47681184 1.00000003
38 0.01625613 0.49289286 1.00000036
39 0.01643314 0.50914899 1.00000007
40 0.01661208 0.52558213 1.00000001
41 0.01679297 0.54219421 1.00000009
42 0.01697583 0.55898718 1.00000020
43 0.01716068 0.57596301 1.00000020
44 0.01734755 0.59312369 1.00000086
45 0.01753644 0.61047124 1.00000016
46 0.01772740 0.62800768 1.00000067
47 0.01792043 0.64573508 1.00000031
48 0.01811557 0.66365551 1.00000070
49 0.01831283 0.68177108 1.00000065
50 0.01851224 0.70008391 1.00000077
51 0.01871382 0.71859615 1.00000078
52 0.01891759 0.73730997 1.00000032
53 0.01912359 0.75622756 1.00000088
54 0.01933182 0.77535115 1.00000024
55 0.01954233 0.79468297 1.00000076
56 0.01975512 0.81422530 1.00000015
57 0.01997024 0.83398042 1.00000073
58 0.02018769 0.85395066 1.00000016
59 0.02040752 0.87413835 1.00000072
60 0.02062973 0.89454587 1.00000001
61 0.02085437 0.91517560 1.00000025
62 0.02108146 0.93602997 1.00000085
63 0.02131101 0.95711143 1.00000028
64 0.02154307 0.97842244 1.00000067
0.99996551
Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:
>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456
Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.
It worked in PD:bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning = 100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%
Edit: here are the 64 bets:
chance multiplier
1.0664% 92.83570893x
bet # stake total lost profit
----- ---------- ----------- ----------
1 0.01088902 1.00000087
2 0.01100759 0.01088902 1.00000081
3 0.01112745 0.02189661 1.00000065
4 0.01124861 0.03302406 1.00000001
5 0.01137110 0.04427267 1.00000036
6 0.01149492 0.05564377 1.00000036
7 0.01162009 0.06713869 1.00000051
8 0.01174662 0.07875878 1.00000040
9 0.01187453 0.09050540 1.00000048
10 0.01200383 0.10237993 1.00000031
11 0.01213454 0.11438376 1.00000032
12 0.01226667 0.12651830 1.00000004
13 0.01240025 0.13878497 1.00000078
14 0.01253527 0.15118522 1.00000019
15 0.01267177 0.16372049 1.00000049
16 0.01280975 0.17639226 1.00000021
17 0.01294924 0.18920201 1.00000063
18 0.01309024 0.20215125 1.00000022
19 0.01323278 0.21524149 1.00000024
20 0.01337687 0.22847427 1.00000007
21 0.01352254 0.24185114 1.00000091
22 0.01366978 0.25537368 1.00000026
23 0.01381863 0.26904346 1.00000022
24 0.01396910 0.28286209 1.00000011
25 0.01412121 0.29683119 1.00000014
26 0.01427498 0.31095240 1.00000051
27 0.01443042 0.32522738 1.00000047
28 0.01458755 0.33965780 1.00000020
29 0.01474640 0.35424535 1.00000075
30 0.01490697 0.36899175 1.00000041
31 0.01506929 0.38389872 1.00000021
32 0.01523338 0.39896801 1.00000024
33 0.01539926 0.41420139 1.00000057
34 0.01556694 0.42960065 1.00000032
35 0.01573645 0.44516759 1.00000045
36 0.01590780 0.46090404 1.00000005
37 0.01608102 0.47681184 1.00000003
38 0.01625613 0.49289286 1.00000036
39 0.01643314 0.50914899 1.00000007
40 0.01661208 0.52558213 1.00000001
41 0.01679297 0.54219421 1.00000009
42 0.01697583 0.55898718 1.00000020
43 0.01716068 0.57596301 1.00000020
44 0.01734755 0.59312369 1.00000086
45 0.01753644 0.61047124 1.00000016
46 0.01772740 0.62800768 1.00000067
47 0.01792043 0.64573508 1.00000031
48 0.01811557 0.66365551 1.00000070
49 0.01831283 0.68177108 1.00000065
50 0.01851224 0.70008391 1.00000077
51 0.01871382 0.71859615 1.00000078
52 0.01891759 0.73730997 1.00000032
53 0.01912359 0.75622756 1.00000088
54 0.01933182 0.77535115 1.00000024
55 0.01954233 0.79468297 1.00000076
56 0.01975512 0.81422530 1.00000015
57 0.01997024 0.83398042 1.00000073
58 0.02018769 0.85395066 1.00000016
59 0.02040752 0.87413835 1.00000072
60 0.02062973 0.89454587 1.00000001
61 0.02085437 0.91517560 1.00000025
62 0.02108146 0.93602997 1.00000085
63 0.02131101 0.95711143 1.00000028
64 0.02154307 0.97842244 1.00000067
0.99996551
Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:
>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456
Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.
Code:
Session Wagered:
0.00000156
Session Profit:
0.00000214
Session Bets:
156
All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.
Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.
Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.
So far, this the the quickest way to double 1 BTC to 2 BTC.
Win or lose is your consequence's.
If you want try this way, try it in trusted site such as crypto-games.net, and many other dice sites.
My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..
Feel the dice? feel the moviment?
That´s very ethereous
My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..
Feel the dice? feel the moviment?
That´s very ethereous
All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.
Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.
Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.
So do you mean that your suggestion is not risky? I think there is no safe way to win 1btc with 1btc, most of strategies are always risky. But I agree with you that to bet all the 1btc with 2x payout is the fastest way to win and fastest way to lose as well
All of the suggested ways is risky and can't be called the best but if you win. Yeah party time.
Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.
Bet all 1BTC to a 2x payout in dice. Yes in just one click so result is fast.
My method is to feel my moves and if i feel or think im lose with this move im lowering my bet then if i feel it will win im higher the bet. thats my way so you need to feel it and think before you bet.Then you need to sacrifice high amount before you get to win or double you capital..
]Ahh touché, forgot I wrote that. I can't remember if you own dooglus on mp or if that's an imposter, so I've credited the 0.1 btc to dooglus on bustabit. Enjoy!
I've had a run of good luck, and doubled it so far:
Playing cards with someone. You can also try trading but it won't be the fastest nor the easiest way.
Well i guess the admin thinked tou taked advantage from the bug or what it had called it to profit.Gambling will be the fast way to achieve such but the risk well is very high .
I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.
woa how u did that?? haha care to share what happen previously? and ur stragety???
I was winning by counting cards at blackjack. I had discussed the strategy with the site owner, and he was fine with it. He even went so far as to tell me my strategy wouldn't work because I was doing it wrong. I was leaving the table whenever the count went negative rather than playing the shoe out until it went positive again. Sitting at a new table gave me a new shoe with a 0 count, which I figured had to be better than the negative shoe I was playing with, so I'd switch, and it worked.
I have actually been gambling by only betting on Sports.
Even though I agree that including poker its the best way to gamble, I feel without proper bankroll management even the good pickers mess up.
I have in the past bet my entire bank roll on matches that were clear favourites to win but lost because my player lost in the 3rd set. So as long as you can do proper bankroll management like poker, then with sports betting it is comparatively easier to recover the 1 BTC with 1 BTC. IMO
Regards,
Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.
Would you like to share why they banned you? were you winning too much? very curious about it
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1018652
I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me.
Thanks for answering and sharing the link.....both weird and funny story anyway
Well i had spent some time reading those topic and all i read where the user were counting cards and being able to profit from it,soo they find those and improved the game ,but well reporting the bugs on the casino and have a strategy will lead into a ban because the player is winning?Casinos has atleast their comission made by the players that loose and well being 1 or 5% the houses takes should be enought but oh well.
I consider gambling a huge risk to try to make 1 btc with 1 btc is insane to bet such hoping to get more and very fast.
Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).
Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet. Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.
Let me start with the most obvious solution:
Bet 1 BTC @ 2x ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%
Assuming the constraints of a dice site such as bitdice.me or pocketrocketscasino.eu: 1% house edge, 9900x max payout, 1 satoshi minimum bet. Provide a well-defined betting sequence to maximize the chance of winning 1 BTC. If I don't have the skills to analytically analyse your solution, I will be forced to simulate it over a few billion runs. Your betting sequence must be FULLY specified without any ambiguities.
Let me start with the most obvious solution:
Bet 1 BTC @ 2x ... which gives an EV of -0.01, and a chance of winning at 49.5%
try pocket dice they have 100% deposit bonus so if you deposit 1btc youll get another but you have to
finish the wagered condition it may take several days but if finished it you`ll get the bonus. or whats left on your
btc on the game. what i do is to gain profit is, i bet under 10 i think it gives you 1.18x profit if you win, and you got your
desired amount you can finish the wagered condition, what i do is bet under 12 wich you can win a lot of time but gives you
1.01x profit.
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