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Topic: Challenge: What's the best way to win 1 BTC with 1 BTC? - page 9. (Read 15989 times)

member
Activity: 106
Merit: 10
Cool Count cards at blackjack table... 

Then you are probably playing live and not for BTC. I don't think you can count online because they all use a continuous shuffle I believe.
newbie
Activity: 14
Merit: 0
 Cool Count cards at blackjack table... 
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1000
1 BTC to 2x in dice and pray to win
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
Just put the 1BTC on red with Roulette and hope for the best.
hero member
Activity: 511
Merit: 500
Best way give it to cowbay and wait for the 50000x multiplier and bam double your bitcoin. And if no one else understands my strategy ryan will.

Cheers

If I win add here nick1234
jr. member
Activity: 54
Merit: 1
Bet on over 0.5 goals in soccer games, look at the h2h statistics and pick carefully. The odds are usually 1.1 and you need a couple of bets.

Agree with you here on the sports betting generally speaking. The fundamental thing is the house cant manipulate the results, they only have control of the odds. Selecting the right betting strategy after proper analysis can work in your favor. I am speaking from experience.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
do 1.2 multiplier bet with 0.01 if loose increase bet 6x if loose twice. return to base if ur lucky ull a some quick profits.

I think the optimal strategy is the one which expects to risk the least in total, since you expect to lose 1% of everything you risk.

To win 1 BTC betting with a 1.2x multiplier you need to risk at least 5 BTC, and you can expect to lose at least 5 times as much as a simple all-in with 2x multiplier (since that way you only risk 1 BTC in total).
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
do 1.2 multiplier bet with 0.01 if loose increase bet 6x if loose twice. return to base if ur lucky ull a some quick profits.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
But guys please understand that you can never beat the numbers.

It's a pretty simple question:

What strategy on a "standard dice site" has the highest chance of turning 1 BTC into 2 BTC?

Not "how can we beat the numbers?"
Not "what team should we bet on?"
Not "what is your favourite strategy?"

The question is pretty clear, and I'm amazed how many people seem to have failed to understand it.

If there was a strategy to guaranteed win 2x or even be in the profit, casinos would be out of business and couldn't run since they couldn't maintain a neutral or positive profit over time.

OK, so you're saying the best you can do is less than 100% chance? At least we have an upper bound on it now.

Best way is 2x 50/50 chance either you win or you don't.

Well, that's not an option. The dice site has a 1% edge, so you can get 2x at 49.5% or 1.98x at 50%. 2x at 50/50 would be a 0% edge. Also it has been shown above that you can do better than a single 2x bet.

Slower way is to compound loan.

Again, that's not allowed. The question states that you have to play on the dice site.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
Ever wanted to run your own casino? PM me for info
But guys please understand that you can never beat the numbers. If there was a strategy to guaranteed win 2x or even be in the profit, casinos would be out of business and couldn't run since they couldn't maintain a neutral or positive profit over time. Best way is 2x 50/50 chance either you win or you don't. Slower way is to compound loan. Lend out 1 btc, get a return, lend out the 1 btc plus return, do that for a while and you will eventually hit your 2btc.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 1000
tail some good sports betting guy.. I think thats the fastest way..

Probably this. I make about 4-4,5 units on average per week from betting. Using a 50 units bankroll you will need to make 50 units to double up, so it will take about 11-12 weeks.

Perphaps not as fast as some would like, however chances of going broke are close to non-existant, compared to wasting your time trying to figure out the "best" way to lose your money playing negative Ev games.
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Strategy 1:
You're always playing 9900x using a martingale sequence, i.e. your wager for each round is
Code:
ceiling((2 - PLAYER_BR)/9899,1e-8)
you run out of funds after 6861 bets. You lose all of them with a probability of
Code:
0.9999^6861 = 0.5035187605260536
or put differently you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.

Strategy 2:
You're constantly playing 20203 satoshi but increase the payout each round by exactly 1x starting at 4951x which will leave you with 1.00004850 BTC profit. You run out of funds after 4949 games and your last payout will be 9899x. You lose all of them with a probability of
Code:
prod(1-0.99/i, i=4949..9899) = 0.5035283796177312
leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.

I Hope the math is correct  Tongue

How about this:

bet 0.01088928 BTC @ 1.0664%
if you win, your profit is ((99 / 1.0664) - 1) * 0.01088928 = 1.00002474 BTC
if not, martingale at the same chance of winning, to keep the same net profit
you can afford 64 bets
chance of winning =  100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%

Edit: here are the 64 bets:

       chance  multiplier      
        1.0664% 92.83570893x    
                  
bet #       stake  total lost      profit
-----  ---------- -----------  ----------
 1     0.01088902              1.00000087
 2     0.01100759  0.01088902  1.00000081
 3     0.01112745  0.02189661  1.00000065
 4     0.01124861  0.03302406  1.00000001
 5     0.01137110  0.04427267  1.00000036
 6     0.01149492  0.05564377  1.00000036
 7     0.01162009  0.06713869  1.00000051
 8     0.01174662  0.07875878  1.00000040
 9     0.01187453  0.09050540  1.00000048
10     0.01200383  0.10237993  1.00000031
11     0.01213454  0.11438376  1.00000032
12     0.01226667  0.12651830  1.00000004
13     0.01240025  0.13878497  1.00000078
14     0.01253527  0.15118522  1.00000019
15     0.01267177  0.16372049  1.00000049
16     0.01280975  0.17639226  1.00000021
17     0.01294924  0.18920201  1.00000063
18     0.01309024  0.20215125  1.00000022
19     0.01323278  0.21524149  1.00000024
20     0.01337687  0.22847427  1.00000007
21     0.01352254  0.24185114  1.00000091
22     0.01366978  0.25537368  1.00000026
23     0.01381863  0.26904346  1.00000022
24     0.01396910  0.28286209  1.00000011
25     0.01412121  0.29683119  1.00000014
26     0.01427498  0.31095240  1.00000051
27     0.01443042  0.32522738  1.00000047
28     0.01458755  0.33965780  1.00000020
29     0.01474640  0.35424535  1.00000075
30     0.01490697  0.36899175  1.00000041
31     0.01506929  0.38389872  1.00000021
32     0.01523338  0.39896801  1.00000024
33     0.01539926  0.41420139  1.00000057
34     0.01556694  0.42960065  1.00000032
35     0.01573645  0.44516759  1.00000045
36     0.01590780  0.46090404  1.00000005
37     0.01608102  0.47681184  1.00000003
38     0.01625613  0.49289286  1.00000036
39     0.01643314  0.50914899  1.00000007
40     0.01661208  0.52558213  1.00000001
41     0.01679297  0.54219421  1.00000009
42     0.01697583  0.55898718  1.00000020
43     0.01716068  0.57596301  1.00000020
44     0.01734755  0.59312369  1.00000086
45     0.01753644  0.61047124  1.00000016
46     0.01772740  0.62800768  1.00000067
47     0.01792043  0.64573508  1.00000031
48     0.01811557  0.66365551  1.00000070
49     0.01831283  0.68177108  1.00000065
50     0.01851224  0.70008391  1.00000077
51     0.01871382  0.71859615  1.00000078
52     0.01891759  0.73730997  1.00000032
53     0.01912359  0.75622756  1.00000088
54     0.01933182  0.77535115  1.00000024
55     0.01954233  0.79468297  1.00000076
56     0.01975512  0.81422530  1.00000015
57     0.01997024  0.83398042  1.00000073
58     0.02018769  0.85395066  1.00000016
59     0.02040752  0.87413835  1.00000072
60     0.02062973  0.89454587  1.00000001
61     0.02085437  0.91517560  1.00000025
62     0.02108146  0.93602997  1.00000085
63     0.02131101  0.95711143  1.00000028
64     0.02154307  0.97842244  1.00000067
                   0.99996551        


Edit: and the calculations showing that it works for the first 5 bets:

>>> 0.01088902 * (99/1.0664 - 1)
1.0000008712228057
>>> 0.01100759 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902
1.0000008112303074
>>> 0.01112745 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759
1.0000006493023257
>>> 0.01124861 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745
1.0000000137959488
>>> 0.01137110 * (99/1.0664 - 1) - 0.01088902 - 0.01100759 - 0.01112745 - 0.01124861
1.0000003597824456


Edit2: I can make ever increasing longer sequences which do slightly better, but it appears never to beat 49.65222222222% chance of doubling.
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
id say just gamble it at primedice and test your luck with a couple pre-rolls before betting.
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
you can try doing at 90% winning x10 times. but you gotta have some sense of patterns.
member
Activity: 83
Merit: 10
best way to win is take a smaller principal and work your way up. or just take the 1 bet 50% chance.
legendary
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
tail some good sports betting guy.. I think thats the fastest way..
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 250
Lend the amount in the Lending section. And over time you will be able to double your bankroll. but there is nothing good for get rich quick.
that would take waaay too much time i would better do ponzis or hyips instead or just make 2x dice roll
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
www.secondstrade.com - 190% return Binary option
I haven't really been following the thread lately but did the OP do any bets and did he win or lose his 1btc?

He wasn't looking to make the bet, but was simply looking for the best way to make or double 1 bTC
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
Martingale on Sports betting super safe parlay bets.
I have almost never failed, but I only do it with small amounts however
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
Ever wanted to run your own casino? PM me for info
I haven't really been following the thread lately but did the OP do any bets and did he win or lose his 1btc?
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