I have strong economical education background.
The btc is in Financial world asset.
Asset is property, gold,
First rule :
When the Bitcoin is strong then fiat is weak.
When fiat inflation rate is high then real estate, gold silver and Bitcoin value is high.
When Economy is Good then the fiat currency have high inflation rate... When markets are Booming stock market for example... Then fiat has high inflation.
When currency has very low inflation rate then this is called economic recression.
AT the economical down time the most of the money is eliminitated from circlelation...
Less Money in circlelation will make money more sacred, world Economy works by alchemical fundamentals.
The economic system works Simple way anyone just learn the basic rules... Just simple rules and you can make a lot profit!!
Knowledge is power
There may be some straight-forward systems, like you mentioned, but historical patterns does not always establish future patterns, and surely at one point, there were thoughts that bitcoin did not matter at all, and now, more and more BIG players are getting into bitcoin, including sometimes replacing their historical gold investments with bitcoin - though it would be quite imprudent to write off gold completely, since there are already easy institutional mechanisms in place to get in and out of paper gold, and even cumbersome ways to get into physical gold, if anyone would want to burden themselves in that direction.
So, yeah, there remain questions regarding the extent to which bitcoin is correlated to any of these historical asset classes, and/or the extent to which bitcoin's newness would appropriately be compared with historical asset classes including questions about whether bitcoin is in the midst of an exponential s-curve of adoption, then if so at what stage is bitcoin in such s-curve adoption and even if it will play out in a kind of gradual or steep curve.
Of course, you can make money, but there are so many people who cannot be bothered attempting to figure out the relationships between various asset classes, and the extent to which historical patterns might play out with bitcoin in the scene, including some of the money that goes into related products such as ICOs, shitcoins and various uncertainties regarding how that might play out - as well as uncertainties regarding politics and like you mentioned whether interest rates go up or down and whether governments are going to be able to act as sloppily and irresponsibly as they have in the past with their money printing machinery... and whether bitcoin and other possible investments, including shitcoins, will let them get away with such practices to flood the market with their currencies that might end up devaluating, especially relative to something that is so potentially provably scarce, such as bitcoin.