Pages:
Author

Topic: [CHART] Bitcoin Inflation vs. Time - page 42. (Read 1079849 times)

legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1001
November 16, 2013, 04:06:00 PM
Very cool graphs, can you post updated ones please.? they would be interesting to see!

Since there have been no changes to the bitcoin production rules, there is nothing to update on these charts.

If you're looking for a chart showing the actual number of bitcoins that have been mined over time, go here:
http://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=all
So we are in a half way. If btc price raised so much since the begining. What will be it's value if 21mln coins will be mined?Cheesy
full member
Activity: 120
Merit: 144
November 15, 2013, 10:51:15 AM
Very cool graphs, can you post updated ones please.? they would be interesting to see!

Since there have been no changes to the bitcoin production rules, there is nothing to update on these charts.

If you're looking for a chart showing the actual number of bitcoins that have been mined over time, go here:
http://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=all
legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1049
┴puoʎǝq ʞool┴
November 15, 2013, 02:13:38 AM
Very cool graphs, can you post updated ones please.? they would be interesting to see!
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 07, 2013, 07:55:34 AM
My statements are compatible with deflation.

No

In a month I sell something at, say, A'=A-15/100*A. I had to buy material which costed, FIFTEEN days before I selle, x'=x-20/100*x , y'=y-20/100*y, z'=z-20/100*z, and I added value Q'=Q+somePercentage/100*Q, so that A'= x'+y'+z' + Q'.

Fifteen days before (starting point) you would have bought your materials at their initital price x, y and z. If you sold your final product at that very moment you would get your initial profit Q, i.e. A=x+y+z+Q, but you can only sell fifteen days after you bought materials at the lower price which is now A'=A-15/100*A due to ongoing deflation. So your profits have shrunk by A-A' (if you are on a narrow margin you may even suffer losses). When you make second turn (if ever) you buy materials at the new lower price x'=x-15/100*x, y'=y-15/100*y, z'=z-15/100*z (I changed the deflation factor to that of A to keep things correct), but you will again sell A only fifteen days later at the price which will still be lower, i.e. A''=A'-15/100*A' since deflation continues. You won't return to your initial profitability unless and until deflation comes to an end. Like inflation, it is not a one-off drop in prices, it is a lasting process

Deflation will always be ahead of you. The longer your production cycle, the more profit will be stripped. Probably you meant that your profits/losses won't be shrinking/expanding any further (i.e. A-A'=A'-A''=A''-A'''=..., provided the deflation rate doesn't change) but this was not my point
sr. member
Activity: 353
Merit: 253
November 07, 2013, 07:27:10 AM
I talked about what he/she adds for his/her work ("transformation of raw material/components"). The final price can be less because he/she bougth such material/components at a lower price.

Deflation means that today's prices (your material/components) are higher than tomorrow's (ready product which producer sells). The producer gets into situation when he buys dear but sells cheap, so his profit margin narrows. When it reaches the break-even point he stops production and fires his staff thus contributing to ever falling demand (the cause of prices fall)

My statements are compatible with deflation.

I sell something today at price A, because I had to buy material/components which costed x,y and z and I added my profit (or added value) Q. Therefore A=x+y+z+Q

In a month I sell something at, say, A'=A-15/100*A. I had to buy material which costed, FIFTEEN days before I selle, x'=x-20/100*x , y'=y-20/100*y, z'=z-20/100*z, and I added value Q'=Q+somePercentage/100*Q, so that A'= x'+y'+z' + Q'.

In fact, I sell at a lower prince (which can be defined as defaltion), but I still earn MORE.

I think deflation will make us all richer, apart from politicians and their lacché that will lose a lot of their privileges.

Best regards,
ilpirata79

legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 07, 2013, 06:49:02 AM
I talked about what he/she adds for his/her work ("transformation of raw material/components"). The final price can be less because he/she bougth such material/components at a lower price.

Deflation means that today's prices (your material/components) are higher than tomorrow's (ready product which producer sells). The producer gets into situation when he buys dear but sells cheap, so his profit margin narrows. When it reaches the break-even point he stops production and fires his staff thus contributing to ever falling demand (the cause of prices fall)
sr. member
Activity: 353
Merit: 253
November 07, 2013, 06:34:58 AM
This is not true, imo.

If I need something there will be always someone producing it. If the producer is worried about deflation (if any, that is to see) he/she will simply increase the price for the work ("transformation of raw material") he/she is making.
This process pushes prices up and counterbalances deflation leading in the end to stable  prizes (everything else being constant).

Best regards,
ilpirata79

Under deflation prices are falling - by definition. What you say ("he/she will simply increase the price for the work he/she is making") breaks this definition, that's all. It does not matter if you need something, what actually matters is the price you are ready to pay for what you need as an "aggregate" consumer (not you personally). Again, under deflation you are not ready to pay the price the producer initially asks which forces the prices down (and leads to all ensuing devastating effects on the economy) - all strictly by definition

I talked about what he/she adds for his/her work ("transformation of raw material/components"). The final price can be less because he/she bougth such material/components at a lower price.

Best regards,
ilpirata79
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 07, 2013, 05:32:44 AM
Moderate long-term deflation or a very slow turn from inflation into deflation would be a different and much less dangerous animal. That may be the future of bitcoin, if it has any.

Yes, deflation could be less dangerous when it is compensated by other factors and producers are able to keep their profit margins wide enough to continue production (that's what ultimately matters), but could this situation be called deflation? Any real world examples when deflation was good for the economy? Japan had been for almost 2 decades in a deflationary spiral (it started in late 80's - early 90's when asset price bubbles popped) but honestly I can't say it was any good for their economy. Probably it would collapse but for the exports (Japan being an open economy)
hero member
Activity: 695
Merit: 500
November 07, 2013, 03:15:13 AM
When a country's currency suddenly goes from inflation to deflation, that can cause a devastating economic slowdown, because people just stop buying most products. To be precise, they defer buying all non-essential goods and services.

Moderate long-term deflation or a very slow turn from inflation into deflation would be a different and much less dangerous animal. That may be the future of bitcoin, if it has any.
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 07, 2013, 12:08:16 AM
This is not true, imo.

If I need something there will be always someone producing it. If the producer is worried about deflation (if any, that is to see) he/she will simply increase the price for the work ("transformation of raw material") he/she is making.
This process pushes prices up and counterbalances deflation leading in the end to stable  prizes (everything else being constant).

Best regards,
ilpirata79

Under deflation prices are falling - by definition. What you say ("he/she will simply increase the price for the work he/she is making") breaks this definition, that's all. It does not matter if you need something, what actually matters is the price you are ready to pay for what you need as an "aggregate" consumer (not you personally). Again, under deflation you are not ready to pay the price the producer initially asks which forces the prices down (and leads to all ensuing devastating effects on the economy) - all strictly by definition
sr. member
Activity: 353
Merit: 253
November 06, 2013, 06:05:55 PM
I don't see the problem for the producer. Could you explain it?

Easily. Under deflation it is less profitable and more risky to produce goods. A producer buys raw materials and makes his merchandise today (when prices are higher) but sells tomorrow when prices are lower, so there is no incentive to expand production or may be even keep it at the same level. In detail it is explained in any decent economic textbook

This is not true, imo.

If I need something there will be always someone producing it. If the producer is worried about deflation (if any, that is to see) he/she will simply increase the price for the work ("transformation of raw material") he/she is making.
This process pushes prices up and counterbalances deflation leading in the end to stable  prizes (everything else being constant).

Best regards,
ilpirata79
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 06, 2013, 11:54:19 AM
Okay, that makes sense. Thanks for the simple explanation.

You're welcome. Don't forget to add some coins  Wink

I suspect that this pattern of production is on its way out anyway. The world is shifting to just-in-time manufacturing. Inventory is expensive to store and maintain. Automation and computerized supply chain management are now allowing goods to be produced as they are sold. Under this new model of production, deflation would not have a significant impact. (Hyperdeflation could still be bad, but Bitcoin probably will never experience hyperdeflation.)

That was not the only reason why deflation is bad
full member
Activity: 120
Merit: 144
November 06, 2013, 11:50:03 AM
I don't see the problem for the producer. Could you explain it?
Easily. Under deflation it is less profitable and more risky to produce goods. A producer buys raw materials and makes his merchandise today (when prices are higher) but sells tomorrow when prices are lower, so there is no incentive to expand production or may be even keep it at the same level. In more detail it is written in any decent economic textbook

Okay, that makes sense. Thanks for the simple explanation.

I suspect that this pattern of production is on its way out anyway. The world is shifting to just-in-time manufacturing. Inventory is expensive to store and maintain. Automation and computerized supply chain management are now allowing goods to be produced as they are sold. Under this new model of production, deflation would not have a significant impact. (Hyperdeflation could still be bad, but Bitcoin probably will never experience hyperdeflation.)
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 06, 2013, 11:46:37 AM
I don't see the problem for the producer. Could you explain it?

Easily. Under deflation it is less profitable and more risky to produce goods. A producer buys raw materials and makes his merchandise today (when prices are higher) but sells tomorrow when prices are lower, so there is no incentive to expand production or may be even keep it at the same level. In detail it is explained in any decent economic textbook
full member
Activity: 120
Merit: 144
November 06, 2013, 11:13:00 AM
But once you get into a deflationary spiral (which starts as you may well guess from ever small deflation) you have not much options available to break out (WWII as such a breakout)
Why would you want to break out? Having my savings continually gaining value doesn't sound so bad.
Because you think only from a consumer's point of view. It's not bad for one person (may be even for two or two thousand) but it is very bad for the economy as a whole. Take the side of a producer and you will get a clue

I don't see the problem for the producer. Could you explain it?
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 06, 2013, 08:45:25 AM
But once you get into a deflationary spiral (which starts as you may well guess from ever small deflation) you have not much options available to break out (WWII as such a breakout)

Why would you want to break out? Having my savings continually gaining value doesn't sound so bad.

Because you think only from a consumer's point of view. It's not bad for one person (may be even for two or two thousand) but it is very bad for the economy as a whole. Take the side of a producer and you will get a clue
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 06, 2013, 08:38:58 AM
One example is the deflation we currently have on computer-based products. The argument that people do not spend their money in a deflation, because the money will be worth more in the future, is simply not true. If people thought that way, they would never buy a computer or a mobile phone, but they do.

Your example confirms what I said before about technological progress. It is not "real" deflation

Add to that the fact that human life is of limited length, so humans have to spend their money before they die. You cannot always wait for tomorrow

You seem to not know people very well. Heaps of precious metals/coins are passed from generation to generation. There is even a term "old money"
full member
Activity: 120
Merit: 144
November 06, 2013, 08:38:42 AM
But once you get into a deflationary spiral (which starts as you may well guess from ever small deflation) you have not much options available to break out (WWII as such a breakout)

Why would you want to break out? Having my savings continually gaining value doesn't sound so bad.
legendary
Activity: 3430
Merit: 1280
English ⬄ Russian Translation Services
November 06, 2013, 08:32:34 AM
This is certainly true for hyper-deflation. It is not true for moderate deflation.

It is true even for moderate deflation provided all other things being equal (or constant). In real life, yes, it can be offset by technological advances or scientific break-throughs. But once you get into a deflationary spiral (which starts as you may well guess from ever small deflation) you have not many options available to break out (WWII as such a breakout)
hero member
Activity: 695
Merit: 500
November 06, 2013, 08:06:58 AM
I still think that the deflationary tendency of bitcoin is damaging, for example because it creates speculative price bubbles.

What creates price bubbles is not the deflationary nature of Bitcoin (which we aren't even observing yet); it's the fact that the supply is perfectly inelastic. With most commodities, when a speculative price bubble begins to form, profit motive drives production to increase, and the increasing supply counteracts the growth in price. But Bitcoin is different: no matter what the price does, the production is always at an approximately constant rate. Thus, there is no moderating effect on an increasing price, and we get speculative price bubbles. I personally believe we will continue seeing this "plateau-ramp-crash" cycle throughout Bitcoin's adoption. However, I do think it will moderate in amplitude as the market grows.

If it ever does. The actual bitcoin market, in which bitcoins are used to pay for goods and services, is tiny and would currently only warrant a bitcoin price below $10. All the rest is people who buy bitcoins because their price goes up, and the price goes up because they buy bitcoins—the perfect vicious circle, producing a huge price bubble. When this bursts, i.e. when they begin to sell bitcoins because their price goes down, and the price goes down because they sell bitcoins, it will not be a pretty sight.

Unfortunately I am pretty much unable to predict when a price bubble will burst, so at this time I can only sit on the fence and wonder. But I'd be grateful for any ideas on predicting price bubbles.
Pages:
Jump to: