Topic: [Chart] VPVR Part 2: Volume Point of Control $8,188 Now Turned Support (Read 399 times)

While it'd be easy to say this was a failed macro trade by failing to reach $14K (which I would agree with), by reaching the first target of $10K, there was amble opportunity to take some profits and/or set a break-even stop loss around the entry level of $8.7K, based on the trading the short-term bullish momentum (that clearly ended in recent days). If you got rekt over this, you only have yourself to blame.


Personally, I decided not to shit the bed over this one, instead allocating only small position sizes around these prices, while covering the lower levels of $7.2K-$7.8K with an increase in capital, as previously referenced. In summary, a wide ladder between $7.2-$8.8K, that is adding to long-term positions from previous years, as opposed to shorter term trading. Therefore nothing for me has changed, I remain bullish, conservatively accumulating at long-term support, as I had already anticipated that the $8.2K VPVR point of control may not hold as support.

It should go with saying that while closing last week below this volume support of $8.2K, closing back above this price this week (6.5 days to go), would be incredibly bullish in my opinion.

Now moving above the 61.8 fib with some decent bullish price action on smaller time-frames. Daily RSI is bouncing from 40 (avoiding bearish price strength) while the CMF is more or less neutral. There's some nice confluence between the VPVR point of control and the 200 Day MA from the past 6 months, indicating building a new support base around the $8,700 level.

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Currently testing the 61.8 fib retracement level from the $6.4K to $10.5K move, after finding support from the 0.5, courtesy of strong volume support:



If we move above the 61.8, the next level of fib resistance (0.786) would be $9628 

Looking at the last weeks candle (on Bitstamp), we managed to close above the 0.5 fib retracement levels and 50 Week MA after wicking below. While this by no means confirms this as a swing low, it has confirmed this level as short-term support to prop up the price.



On the Daily chart, it's clear that the next level of resistance will be the 200 Day MA that we were rejected from last week:



A break below the last weeks low, this week, will be more bearish than doing so last week in my opinion now the TD Sequential is on a Red 2. Therefore, the Red 2 candle moving below the last week's Red 1 would be the sign of short entry on the Weekly chart - even though the risk reward isn't there due to the size of required stop loss (the high of last weeks candle). Therefore, I'm not suggesting anyone shorts new lows, but that if we break below $8,400 then the VPVR of $8,200 may not hold as strong as support.

As for yesterday's TA, we did confirm the bearish exhaustion on the MACD histogram with the Daily close which is a bullish sign:


We are now opening today's candle with continued declining bearish momentum:



While this doesn't necessarily suggest $8,410 being the low, the extrapolation points to a bounce back is due from the low $8K levels. Unfortunately, the MACD doesn't give us a target or measured move, but it does give us another long trade if you are trading oversold* bearish exhaustion cycles (*in this case, when the histogram is <-175).

In order to review the individual indicators used within this VPVR analysis on the Weekly scale; MA Ribbons, MACD and Hash Ribbons:

• Price currently testing lower bands of the MA Ribbon with remaining support at $8,250. The Ribbon is still rising and remains in bullish formation.
• MACD is losing buying pressure, but otherwise remains in the green and positive territory. No signals to end long trade.
• Hash rate continues to climb, no signs of slowing down, therefore Hash Ribbons remains positive.

Summary: Staying and adding in long positions while price tests the support levels, as well as preparing for worst case scenario of $7,500 levels (that I think are unlikely).

Currently testing entry price of $8,700. Nothing to panic about as referenced in Part 1.

I'm noticing that the VPVR point of control since the start of year from the $6.9K run up is at $8,753, only $7 below the 200 Day MA at $8,760:



Closing back above this level, after falling below, for the third day in a row would signal short-term price reversal from this strong support imo.

We also closed the CME gap, for anyone who felt nervous longing prior to this:

A closer look of the current charts, currently I'll be targeting $8.2-8.8K ($8.5K average) with 45% remaining capital*, based on the following:



*I only have 25% fiat left to allocate, therefore this would be allocating 11.25% with positions of 3.75% positions, with the remaining 55% covering $7.2-7.8K range. DYOR.

Looks like we are still following the bullish path to $14K. Some profit taking occurring (as expected after such an exuberant rally), similar to $5K levels in April that took a few weeks to consolidate new price levels, but otherwise metrics still point to more upside. While it's still possible to correct to VPVR support, the trend is your friend. The trend is still bullish,

I'm curious to see if this 4-hour candle closes that way, as a gravestone doji or shooting star. That could be informative. I'm not convinced this mini-pump to $10K has legs yet, although it does lend some credence to the sideways range scenario (as opposed to the $8,000s dip scenario).

From a couple of days ago....


As a quick update, the bearish head & shoulders pattern looks more or less invalidated now. Only so far it's worth stretching a shoulder before it stops looking like a h&s pattern:



The VPVR point of control from the past few weeks of trading is $9,770. This is short-term support we need to hold to remain short-term bullish.

Most notably, there is now precise confluence with the shorter and long-term timeframes, with the 61.8 fib retracement level also at $9,770.



Summary: Short-term & long-term support are only 36 cents apart. 4hr has returned to bullish, a Weekly close above $9,770 would confirm 61.8 fib support for a second consecutive week.

Indeed. If we get "trapped" in the $9,300 to $9,600, I would also expect lower prices, unless we consolidate in this range for another 5 days until the 50 Day MA reaches $9,300 support. In these cases, I depend heavily on the 200 MA on the 4hr as to whether we hold this level or break below it, this will come sooner than 50 Day MA contact I believe.


Personally, I think breaking below $9,300 would expose anywhere between $8,800 (200 Day MA) and $8,200, where the long-term point of volume control is still based. Baring in mind that in the middle of this at $8,500 where the 50 Week MA is priced at (as well as the 100 Day MA). All of this range is fair game for finding a low imo, and now thinking breaking below the 200 Day MA may not be that critical afterall.

It's looking like a a good risk reward laddering in from $8,200-$8,800, especially given the golden cross. I'd also be covering $7,800 which would be the line is the sand, but if we bounced from these lows we'd otherwise create a macro bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern with a massive moon target (MMT), as well as further confirm the macro bull flag by flipping previous resistance into support, again with MMT. I wouldn't be expecting all my buy orders to fill, but this would be exactly as planned for conservative laddering.

I'm also getting increasingly suspicious of the declining volatility, despite the move to $10K, volatility remains at lows (we have still yet to see any big moves) making lower highs since July. Unless this means we return to parabolic bull to reached $14K very quickly, as was the original intent, then the odds are the increased volatility will be to the downside with some pretty long wicks. It'd make sense to me, returning to long-term support to maintain bullish momentum with a spike in volatility.

It's time to catch those wicks again  

I think it's very possible the market goes deeper in the short term. I could easily see a wick below the February lows to wash out weak longs and lull in over-eager shorts. Longs on Bitfinex are still up 40-50% since January. I'd love to see some of them culled.

50-day MA = $9,026
200-day MA = $8,843

I expect a strong reaction off that area, especially because the January pivot high and February pivot low are there as well. Lots of reasons to bounce there.

Currently feeling short-term neutral with slight bearish bias. I wouldn't be surprised to see price bounce between the VPVR levels of $9,300 to $9,800 over the coming days.



A breakdown below $9.3K point of control would expose the 200 Day MA from the head & shoulders confirmation and measured move target (-8% / $8,800).
Respecting the downwards sloping support of the h&s is not a good sign in my opinion, instead further validating the pattern.

Really strong down thrust off $10,300. Nice work. Important level indeed!

I'm frankly glad bears made their last stand there. Consolidating off the longer daily MAs will build up to a really powerful next wave up. Thrusting above the October pivot last week would have left open the possibility for a short squeeze that wicked back down. At this point, re-attacking those highs will be unambiguously bullish.

VPVR Point of Control at $10,307 from the 2019 bear channel bull flag, The picture is still very interesting:

First target of $10K reached  Expecting some profit taking prior to reaching $14K, as the extrapolation suggests, but this may also come later.


Reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZYZoQQ6LJQ

OP screenshot updated with Weeky close, a nice 10% move from $8,700 to $9,600. Not quite the $10K that seemed possible (sorry folks, no refunds), but a nice move nonetheless.
As the April 2019 extrapolation suggests, now anticipating consolidation for up to a few weeks and finding support from the $8,800 level (or around 200 Day MA at $8,900), if we don't make the move the $10K this week that is. Below this, I see $8,200 as strong volume support that is in confluence with fib retracements as well as the 21 Week MA ($8,290):

The bullish case is here:

• VPVR Point of Control, since $3K in September 2017: $8,188
• Price has closed for two consecutive weeks above this PoC
• Hash Ribbons buy signal - December 2019
• 1 & 2 Year MA bull-cross - January 2019
• Price above MA Ribbons - January 2019
• MACD bull-coss on Weekly - January 2019

DYOR.

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