Topic: [Charts] Just another analyst - my ongoing TA (Read 1325 times)

1 week no update. As a re-cap we had the breakdown from the descending triangle to $80 short of the measured move target ($17,580). Price now re-testing resistance after establishing a new support trend-line. A rejection would likely see a re-test of $18K strong support level, a break above would see new ATH.



The Daily RSI bearish divergence was broken yesterday, now we are testing the bullish territory of 60, similar to in June & September. It's possible price faces further rejection at this level, while at strong resistance, and takes longer to consolidate. As was the case previously when bullish divergence was broken and bullish territory was re-tested.



Price otherwise remains in a bullish ascending triangle structure with the resistance level between $19.5-$20K.

Not much to analyse today as we continue to move sideways. The descending triangle I was concerned about a few days ago appears to be taking shape. Others consider this a bullish symmetrical triangle (continuation) however based on the strong resistance overhead as well as now breaking below the 50 MA, I consider it short-term bearish.



With a slightly different angled triangle for more accuracy, the target would be around $17.5K to the 200 MA that doesn't seem out the question before finding another bounce.

To reference what I posted in another thread...


Yesterday I suspected that the 50 & 100 MAs would act as local support from the 3rd rejection at resistance, with price wicking down $20 from the 50 MA to $18.5K. This means we created another higher low from the VPVR point of control, a bullish sign. On the 4hr chart, price is otherwise beginning to form a bearish descending triangle, with a breakdown target of $17.4K if the $18.5K level is broken. A rejection today from $19.3K area would confirm the pattern (yellow question mark), even if not confirm the target unless the breakdown occurs.



The bearish divergence on the Daily time-frame looks more or less confirmed now with 3 touch-points at the resistance trend-line, even if a bit too aggressive to be maintained. Recent price action hasn't affected this, with price effectively continuing to weaken since the $19.5K top on November 24th.



While price otherwise remains fully bullish on the Daily time-frame, despite the weakness of strength, the 21 Day MA around $18.25K will need to be held to continue to parabolic uptrend that has been maintained for almost two-months now. Otherwise, the 50 Day MA is currently at $15.75K, where the next cluster of volume support lies:

Price held the $18K support level, for now establishing a bullish higher low, while now re-testing local resistance. The trend remains bullish with old resistance now confirmed as support.



The Daily RSI that remains my main bearish concern, price strength is now testing the bearish divergence that formed over the past few days:



The bearish divergence looks like it can easily be broken, due to the steep angle of divergence, but while price re-tests resistance levels a rejection here could be the confirmation.

A quick look now the Daily candle has come to close, the rejection earlier today on the 4hr took price down to support. Now we are looking to re-test this support. If prices breaks back below the $17.9K level, I'd expect it to return to previous lows before a bounce, or falling lower as a consequence of confirming a "double top" and ATH rejection.



The Daily chart now becomes the concern, based on the aggressive bearish divergence on the RSI (price strength). After a month of price being overbought, we have now confirmed a rejection from returning to overbought levels. While price remains is bullish territory, a break below 55 could see a re-test of bearish price strength:



From a price perspective, it looks quite clear that we need to hold the 21 Day MA that currently sits at the base of support. Below this, it's a long way down to reality.



Price this week had the highest monthly & daily close ever - this is amazing. Price is also up 2x in the past 6 weeks - it's incredible. It's also long overdue for a deep correction.

Price on Coinbase finally made an ATH today, $19,915, $25 above previous all time high, after Bitstamp achieving a new ATH yesterday. This is however the second time on the 4hr chart that price has been rejected by new ATH levels, so it may take longer to consolidate current highs. Strong support remains between $17.8-18.2K. Above this support zone, price remains bullish.



The Monthly candle close yesterday was otherwise the highest Monthly close Bitcoin has ever had. While I'm still expecting a pull-back to $14K levels, the long-term picture remains incredibly bullish



While on the Weekly, price is at the highest closing Weekly candle in Bitcoin's history. Yet another sign of the strong bullish momentum in the market right now:

Price broke through the local resistance level with ease. On the 1hr time-frame, we might be looking for a short-term pull-back to $18K support and 50 MA. Otherwise, probably going to be another moonshot towards $20K. No regrets selling 3.5% at $18K, I still think price will eventually go lower in the long-term even if we get to $25K.



On the 4hr, we are building up more volume at higher levels, which would eventually move the point of control to around $18.6K. Ideally, this would be with price above it, in order not to get rejected by the POC once it has shifted. Other than $18K on the 1hr, $17.8K on the 4hr is now looking likely as a support zone (21/100 MA projection zone too).

I had assumed we'd find more resistance on the way back up, but it now seems we are moving above this and bouncing from the 50 MA. A very promising sign.



On the Daily chart, price found support three days in a row from the 21 Day MA, further defining the bullish uptrend.



Despite the Weekly chart signalling a reversal, price has been bought up creating a bullish wick, as well as bouncing from the 0.786 retracement from March lows to November highs.



It all looks very bullish, it's hard to deny. I'm still expecting a deeper correction, but if price continues to break resistance levels, it won't arrive yet.

Not too much to analysis yet, price appears to trading within a distinct volume gap between $16.5-17.5K. Resistance sits between $17.5-18K now, while trading below the 100 MA isn't doing us any favors either. A break of this range will likely determine the future direction, of which I think will be down to strong $15.5K support. We unsurprisingly got a bounce from oversold territory on the 4hr RSI, which is what you'd expect when price remains oversold on the Weekly time-frame.



Then when we zoom out to the Daily, we see we are actually a long way from strong support. While $12K (-38%) would clearly be well defended it price ever got there, I'm generally looking at a retracement to somewhere between $13-14K (-28-33%), even if anything below $16K (-18%) is worth accumulating imo. If the 21 Day MA doesn't hold, next up would be the 0.5 fib retracement and 50 Day MA around $15K (-23%), which would stand a chance of supporting the price.



Like the Daily, the Weekly remains incredibly bullish, the only issue is being so far from strong support. The Weekly candle is looking indecisive, but after so much upside in recent weeks, looks to be defining a reversal if price closes at current prices or lower. We'd need to get back above $18.5K by the end of the week to turn this around.



I've otherwise been dumping bags into Ethereum and will continue to do so, as it has already had a 35% correction and remains at a 25% discount.
Bitcoin has fallen 17% and remains at a 12% discount, not Black Friday material yet.

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I'm coming round to the idea of this more so indeed. The end of week will likely confirm this to me. Bye bye new all time high in 2020 most likely.

Shucks, only 18-20%?! And here I thought we might be having a real Bitcoin correction!

The dump looks possibly impulsive to me. I think we can push deeper than that, possibly getting the 30-40% dip I've been concerned about. As long as price is failing to recover and hold above the $18K area, I'm inclined to think distribution will continue. If bulls can however hold above that horizontal resistance and the 0.618 level, I would reassess.

I always like a clean exit on trading positions  Price is moving faster than expected, therefore now eyeing up the $15.5-16K levels (-18-20%) as support, now price is capitulating. This is the current localish VPVR point of control, 200 MA on the 4hr, as well as 0.619 fib retracement from the $10K break-out to $19.5K high.



It's time to start buying the dip again, but without trying to catch the falling knife at $18K or $17K...

Nearly all the following I referenced in my previous post (almost more relevant now than yesterday), but I'll analysis exactly what's happening now my stop has been triggered...


Big moves. Price finally broken down from $19.5K, somewhat as anticipated in yesterdays post. One target from the ascending wedge break-down is around $16.8K, while price has so far reached the low $17.1K. Price is other tentatively at a support tend-line of sorts (old resistance), but with another bearish indicators claiming otherwise:



Based on the 4hr MA Ribbon, the parabolic structure has been broken. While there is support below, it forces me to call the local top at $19.5K for now:



The 4hr RSI also confirms this trend break, with the price strength now closing in <40 bearish territory for the first time since early October:



As previous warned, price has been overbought on the Daily time-frame for around a month. The good news is, laddering into the dip is now looking possible:



As also referenced, the Weekly RSI was at critical 85 overbought, exactly where price corrected from in late 2016, prior to breaking ATH:



The TD 9 Sell Signal is now starting to look like a sell signal, with currently the first red candle after many weeks of upside:



While I'm satisfied with my $18K exit, I wouldn't be surprised to see price re-test $18.6K before moving lower towards a minimum of $16K (-18% from local top). This is where the volume point of control lies, as well as around the 21 & 500 MAs on the 4hr chart, that are now starting to slope downwards in bearish fashion.



TL:DR: I'm not expecting this to be the dip bought up like previous times, but instead a dead cat bounce back to resisitance before lower levels.

Stop loss now moved up to just under $18K. I'm very much still under the impression that if price breaks below the MA ribbon on the 4hr, price will fall considerably lower.


Likewise, if $20K is now tested, given the lack of strong selling pressure at the $19K levels, there's a good chance price can break through and move much higher. Either way, a bigger move is coming imo. The parrelel channel morphed into a bearish rising wedge pattern, that has a greater chance of breaking to the downside than the upside in reality.



I'm also not taking the TD 9 Sell Signal on the Weekly time-frame lightly, it seems likely that this week or next price is going to move in a big way. Eventually, this will be to the downside.



Price has more of less been oversold in the Daily time-frame for over a month since $12K levels were broken. To say price is merely overbought, is an understatement.



We are otherwise at clear RSI resistance levels >85, which price strength continues to struggle with unsurprisingly. There could be another push upwards, but it lead inevitably lead to bigger push back down eventually. Be fearful when others are greedy. The time to be greedy, was back when everyone was back in March when everyone was fearful.



It won't be long now until some whales start taking profits, in order to buy back into a tasty dip.

Price obviously didn't come back down to re-test parallel channel, which now more or less invalidates the pattern minus the resistance trend-line target overhead. Instead there is yet another support trend-line as price goes further parabolic towards all time highs...


My stop loss has therefore now been moved up to $17.57K, with the intention to move this to $18K probably tomorrow or after a test of $20K. I'm still under the impression a 25-35% correction will occur, after a dump exceeds 10% below local top, which is why I've been moving the sell order higher over the weeks instead of taking trading profits already.



Zooming out to the bigger picture on the same 4hr time-frame and using the MA Ribbon, it now seems extremely likely that a break below the ribbon will lead to the larger anticipated correction. Whether this happens from current prices, $20K or nearer $25K remains to be seen, but hence moving my stop loss higher.

Since $10K levels, price only ever wicked a % or two below the MA Ribbon all the way up to the new $19.4K high. I'll therefore now be using this indicator to move my stop loss higher, but leaving a bit of room for price to wick below the ribbon, find support, and continue moving higher, as has been the case for over 6 weeks now.



On the Weekly time-frame, we are on the TD Seqential 9 Sell Signal, but whether this will reverse the price remains to be seen. Also to note there is still another 5 days to go before the end of the Week. Price could therefore break through $20K before 1-4 weeks of downside, or otherwise reverse at any moment, hence this week I plan to move my stop loss to $18K in case a reversal wick occurs on the Weekly candle, that would confirm the sell signal. The 2.618 fib target at $20.4K remains close.



The trend is your friend, until it becomes your enemy  

Quick update for the day on the 1hr, price broke down from the short-term bull-flag as anticipated. Price is finding some buyers at the local VPVR point of control, but otherwise has now closed below the mid-level of the bull channel signalling short-term weakness. Next level of support is in the $17K range; the 200 MA, 0.786 fib retracement and support trend-line:

Don't think I'm the first to say it, but Bitcoin is starting to look top-heavy on smaller time-frames again. On the 4hr, price has been rejected by the resistance trend-line of the current bull flag structure. While price remains bullish long-term, a return to re-test the mid-level around $17.9K, or the support trend-line around $17K is far from out the question.



We have again confirmed bearish divergence on the RSI, with a higher high but a lower low in price strength. While price has repeatedly broken these bearish indicators, it none the less does suggest price may correct lower before moving higher again. Personally, this is the first moment where a correction seems likely due to BTC dominance reversing.



On the 1hr, we have been nicely trading upwards in a bull flag pattern that targeted a breakout of the larger bull flag. Unfortunately, we now appear to be breaking down from it.



Looks like it's time for Bitcoin to correct or consolidate, as investors already begin to diversify into the altcoin market. Bitcoin dominance appears to be topping out on a TD Sequanital 9 Sell Signal on the Weekly chart, while being rejected by the volume point of control. In long-term bear markets (that dominance is currently in, based on it's bearish 200 Week MA), this is the expected outcome from the recent dead-cat bounce from <60% to 67%. This Weeks candle screams doji reversal to me:



I'm planning to move my stop loss upto $17.2K, now that price has moved 10% higher than current SL at $16,570, however I'm holding back. I'm waiting for the 50 MA on the 4hr to move above this new support level, as well as the support trend-line to move above this, to avoid selling at support. Probably this will be by next week, when the TD will also be on a 9 Sell Signal. Back in June at $10K, we saw price consolidate for 6 weeks after a TD 9 Sell prior to moving higher, I wouldn't be surprised to see the same consolidation again.



Finally, if June 2016 RSI is anything to compare current overbought conditions with, then we could be looking at a deeper correction upto 40% and 6 months before making new highs:



Be prepared.

On the 1hr time-frame, we managed to break-out of the bull flag / consolidation pattern making at new high above $18.7K. Obviously, this is still very bullish.



On the 4hr, price is currently testing the near complete parallel channel (re-drawn for accuracy). With three touch-points on support, price will need to avoid rejection at current level to confirm a third resistance touch-point. The mid-level currently remains relevant but imperfect, but staying within this channel (currently around $16.6K), price will however remain bullish.



Everything else says bullish, until proven otherwise. The only real exception is the Hash Ribbons indicator, but this can be overlooked as the miner "capitulation" that begun at the end of October didn't follow suit with a correction or consolidation of price, as has been the case in previous corrections in hash rate.



Instead price has rallied $5K (+37%) since October 30th when miners notably started to switch off.

For now bulls appear to be defending the mid-level, confirming the bullish momentum is still in tact. Bulls needs to break through the parallel channel in order to avoid a double top scenario, but so far so good. Three wicks have come down to test the mid-level (yellow dotted line), which indicates strong dip buying mentality is still in play.

I'm currently looking at a short-term pull-back before price moves higher, if bulls fails to hold the mid-level of the parallel channel price has formed:



This would be to around the support level, somewhere between $16.6-17K (depending on when this happens time-wise). If price fails to hold this relatively parabolic support trend-line that has been established, I'd be expecting a pull-back to around $14-15K in the longer-term. This would be approximately 15-25%, so not completely unreasonable imo.

Yesterday's Daily canndle was otherwise a "long legged" doji candle, indicating indecision in the market, while today's candle is also looking similar:

It will take again a lot of time to reach ATH if we move back to 14$ levels again from here. Seeing the momentum, i think that bitcoin will make another ATH and then we might see a pull back near 21000$. In between we may see 300-500$ correction which isn't much deal with the pace we are going up.