While the community appears very split between bullish and bearish bias', as some analysts remain neutral, here's an in depth overview as to why this might be the case.
Indicators used: Moving averages (MAs), Volume Profile Volume Range (VPVR), TI Indicator (TD Sequential), Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and Relative Strength Index (RSI).
See (TL:DR) overview near the bottom of this post for summary.
Daily chart - 60/40 bullish bias with ascending triangle pattern
Bulls are currently finding support from the 50 Day MA (after the golden cross of the 50 & 200 Day MA), the 50 MA being the first re-test of bullish support. Price found support from a bullish ascending triange formation, that statistically speaking has a 70% of breaking to the upside with a measured move to somewhere between $11.8-12.3K. The RSI remains neutral, the CMF is currently positive and maintaining momentum. Price has corrected with a 1-4 candle correction on the TD, as expected within bull markets, while sitting just below the VPVR (volume) point of control of $9468. See also alternative perspective of bull flag structure further down that remains relevant to the bullish bias perspective.
Weekly chart - 55-45 bearish bias with TD sell signal and Red 1 candle (unconfirmed)
The larger picture is more subjective, with many factors that come down to bullish or bearish perspectives. Firstly, the TD Sequential signalling a TD 9 Sell signal, however based on the previous two times this was signaled, price continued to move higher (April & June 2019). The difference this time is this weeks candle is threatening to close as a Red 1, which therefore would definitely signal a long-term sell signal if price moves below the lows of this weeks candle (next week) at $9,078. Breaking down from $9K would signal bearish trend change on the Weekly chart, based on this indicator alone.
Depending on how you draw your long-term resistance trend-line - from the December 2019 highs of $20K with the 2019 $14K and 2010 $10K highs - price is arguably continuing to find support from this trend-line after closing two non-consecutive candles above it. This can be seen clearer from the 4hr chart (yellow line) also referenced below. However, given the subjectivity of these types of trend-lines, it's also possible to consider price finding strong resistance at this level with a bearish bias. The RSI remains in the neutral zone, while the CMF also remains more-or-less neutral. Apart from the potential bullish support from the long-term trend line, there are definite bearish factors arising from the TD and strong horizontal resistance. Shifting the mid-term VPVR point of control to $9,491 is inherently bullish, however price needs to close above this level for a bullish bias.
4hr chart - 50-50 no bias with bullish pattern and bear flag structure
While price found support from the bullish ascending triangle pattern, price is now struggling to find support from the 200 MA, despite the 50 MA remaining above the 200 - as well as failing to cross below the 200 last month - therefore remains in bullish formation until a bear cross is confirmed. Similar to the Daily and Weekly charts, price sits below the VPVR point of control at $9492. Price therefore needs to close back above the 200 MA and VPVR to return to a 60-40 bullish bias, but remains to be seen as of writing, hence current neutral bias. Moving back above $9.5K, in order to re-target the horizontal resistance of the ascending triangle pattern, would return my bullish bias.
The RSI is within the neutral zone of 40-60 (after briefly becoming bearish for a few candles), however the CMF is turning bearish and gaining momentum which is a cause for concern. With price trading sideways, there is an argument for a bear flag structure that would target the $8.8K level. This would however remain within a bull flag structure on a Daily time frame, as also referenced below. With price otherwise trading within the ascending triangle structure, there is still the 70% probability price will break upwards, despite short-term bearish factors. Next weeks candle is likely to be critical in determining the long-term trend of Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
Daily chart - 55-45 bullish bias alternative bull flag perspective (lacks confirmation of three touch-points per support/resistance)
Of concern on the Daily chart now referenced above is the confirmation of bearish divergence on the RSI, that would need to be broken in order to confirm stronger bullish bias:
Overview (TL:DR) - 60-40 bullish bias likely to be reduced to 55-45 bullish bias next week
- While in the past Week I've been 60-40 bullish bias overview, closing the Weekly candle on a TD on a Red 1 would shift this to 55-45 slight bullish bias.
- A move below $9K (on a Red 2 candle moving below a Red 1) would give me a 60-40 bearish bias, as a strong sell signal would be confirmed.
- A break below $8.8K (bull flag structure) would confirm a 70-30 bearish bias, with the target of around an $8K Bitcoin to the 100 & 200 Day MAs.
Although still remaining slightly bullish for now, until the end of the day at least, I don't believe price will find support from the 100/200 Day MAs around $8K if price breaks down from the bull flag structure, instead finding it more likely to return to somewhere between the 100 Week MA around $7.25K and the VPVR point of control of $6.5K. Re-testing the 200 Week MA around $6K I find unlikely, instead I'd expect the market to front-run those trying to buy this reliable long-term "line in the sand" price support MA.
Monthly chart - remains fully bullish as per usual
While only half way through the month, therefore overlooking this month's current candle that has two weeks to go, the TD sequential is on a Green 3, after the long bullish wick of March 2020. Price is otherwise above the 20, 50 & 100 MAs - that are all bullish formation (
as always). Strong volume support is at the VPVR point of control of $6,569. The RSI is currently neutral while the CMF is negative but with bullish divergence based on recent months price action, pointing towards a long-term bull-run by the end of the year:
