Topic: [Charts] Just another analyst - my ongoing TA - page 2. (Read 1325 times)

$18.25 target reached ✔️ Stop loss currently moved upto $16,575, again 10% below the price (to avoid getting wicked out on a 7% 1 hr candle).



The RSI on the Weekly chart is now is "full blown" bull run level >80, more or less confirming the parabolic nature of the recent run up:



We could still see $20K or higher, but don't be surprised to a healthy pull-back to $12-14K / $14-16K, before the next leg up.

Just a fair warning, 4hr bearish divergence currently remains in tact. Price needs to close above $17,700 in order to break it:



On micro time-frames (10 minute) it does seem like a short pull-back is more than possible, at least to the breakout level of the parallel channe:



Time to buy the dip soon? Coinbase Pro is currently offline 

$17K target reached ✔️ Price has closed on the 4hr above the ascending wedge, which is incredibly bullish. Therefore the measured move target would be +8% to $18,250  

Price unsurprisingly broke to the upside yesterday, despite the bearish divergence on smaller time-frames, as the $16K level was flipped into support. On the 4hr chart we are currently flirting with a TD 9 Sell signal, although currently a Red 1 candle. This could indicate a short-term pull-back (1-4 candles) to the support trend-line around $16.2K.



I've therefore reluctantly* moved my stop loss up to $15.7, below the recent lows. Breaking below the new support (old triangle resistance) imo would likely yield a further pull-back that remains overdue, even if price remains very bullish. Price also remains within the bearish ascending triangle structure, despite still rising on good volume.

*Previously I had my stop around $15.1K, below the VPVR point of control. The stop loss is only 5% of my holdings, most of my trading account, 95% will remain as hodl.

Price looks a bit better today. The $16K level eventually acted as support. I've re-drawn the parallel channel that still has enough touch-points on support, while moving the resistance trend-line to previous tops. Current short-term target would therefore be $17K, as opposed to $17.5K as previously estimated.



The only concern is the VPVR point of control remaining at $15.5K that may need re-testing, otherwise wouldn't be surprised to see more volume build up in the $15.8-16K (old triangle resistance) that has since acted as short-term support as expected, the yellow circle. This would also coincide with bouncing from the 50 MA on the 4hr that hasn't been re-tested for sometime (apart from when we came very close on the 7th November). Either way, price remains short-term and long-term bullish.

Not much changed since yesterday on smaller time-frames. We didn't get the v-shaped recovery from the support trend-line that I was hoping for, but price is none the less grinding upwards along it. I'm now acknowledging that we are in a bearish ascending wedge, but given the lack of breakdown from support, I'm overlooking the relevance for now.


The $15.5K level remains strong support, a break below the yellow line ($15,090) is where I'd turn slightly bearish on smaller time-frames. A sideways breakout from the ascending wedge could prove to be bullish, if volume point of control is moved up from $15.5 to $15.8-$16K, while the 200 MA that remains untested at $15,670.



The bearish factors are currently the bearish divergence on the 4hr chart, which would need to be broken to continue the uptrend. This can also easily be broken with bullish follow through from turning old triangle resistance into support, and moving back towards the mid-level of the parallel channel.



The Daily chart also signals bearish divergence (higher high in price with a lower low in RSI), but also remains in overbought territory, so far from bearish either.



On the Weekly time-frame, the RSI is facing resistance at 80. This was the key level from 2019 that price strength was unable to move above. A break and close >80 on the RSI would further confirm the long-term bullish uptrend, similar to the price strength seen in 2016-2017.



Weekly chart still in a clear uptrend regardless of a potential pull-back to strong support levels:

We got the pull-back to $15.8-$16K (triangle breakout level), as suggested pretty accurately with the red arrow above. Now to move back up towards the mid-level?



I think there's still room to move down to $15.5K strong volume support, that will likely be very well defended. I also don't think the correction needs to go any deeper after very recently making new 3-year highs at $16.5K. The current level is old resistance that will likely become new support before moving higher again. The trend is your friend.

Long-time no TA here, the market's been in a solid uptrend. Now starting to pay more attention as I tighten stop losses on trading positions (95% is still in HODL mode).


Either expecting slight pull-back and re-test triangle breakout resistance level to flip to support, or generally continue mooning upwards.

We got a small breakout of volatility today at the end of the support/resistance apex. Pending an increase in volume, the bulls do appear to have the upper hand right now by closing a candle above the resistance trend-line 200 MA:



*The yellow line represents the Weekly resistance down-trend line that is currently holding back the price on the 4hr chart after wicking to it.

The trend-line is also in notable confluence with the 50 Day MA. Bulls will need to close above this level to confirm a short-term trend-change. Rejection from the slightly bearish trend-line MA would likely lead to a re-test of VPVR support & 21 Day MA aorund $9,225. Lowering in the POC with recent volume traded in this area, as well as moving above this level, is however a very positive sign:

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Looks like the bullish hopium wasn't a too strong dose of hope as price strength remains within a u-curve, after avoiding Daily closes below $9,100:

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The trade on the TD Sequential, with the Green 3 moving above the Green 2 candle at $9,223 (especially after a TD 9 Buy signal) gives a 2.7 risk/reward ratio targeting $9,475. The target has already over half been met however. Therefore unless price continues to move higher above $9.5K to target $9.7K-9.8K, it'd be wise to wait for a pull-back and confirmation:

The bounce reached $9,245, $5 short of the resistance level. Price has now consolidated to the end of a long-term upwards trend-line as well as a mid-term resistance trend-line:

Here's the closer look at the 4hr. TD is on a 9 Buy Signal and likely to bounce from the oversold RSI level of 30, before facing triangle resistance of $9,250-$9,300 where the the 50 & 200 MA resistance lies (bearish formation, both sloping downwards). This is the bull trap scenario I'm now eyeing up, following the $9.4K-$9.5K bull trap that played out:



Price remains bearish until $9,500 is taken out, otherwise looking like a short-term bear trap, followed by another bull trap. Classic stuff.

This type of price movement is exactly what I was worried about yesterday, in order to confirm a bearish trend change  
Another re-test of triangle resistance (at best) then a move downwards is my 70% assumption, in order to re-test ascending support trend-line and flip it to resistance:



On the BTCEUR chart, a close below horizontal support 8.046 € ($9,197) could confirm a breakdown from the descending triangle, although the horizontal support trend-line could arguably be moved lower to 7.950 € ($9,090) with less touch-points (and therefore less accuracy). A close below the 100 Day MA (£8,013/$9,170) that's -3.2% lower than BTCUSD's (at $8,871) - would be particularly bearish imo:



The bullish "hopium" Relative Strength Index (RSI) view needs to hold current price levels of $9,100, to maintain a sort of bullish curve back towards >60 bullish territory. Current remains in the neutral zone:



The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is the only bullish sign right now, buying pressure is remaining positive, but a break below 0.1 could signal moving or re-testing the negative zone:



The Weekly CMF on the other hand has been negative (indicating stronger selling pressure) for 2 months now, since the bear channel, but with slight bullish divergence:



On the other hand, the RSI on the Weekly chart is showing some bearish divergence:



The Daily is therefore looking unequestionably bearish to me right now, while the Weekly is slightly bearish / neutral given the lack of confluence between RSI & CMF.

Valid point, the intra-day was becoming less and less relevant as volatility continued to reduce. I was hoping to find a clue in there somewhere, but apart from the dead cat bounce to $9.4-9.5K, it's not saying much else apart from the obvious bearish signals.


The first day breaking correlation maybe, or just a day off?

Thought I'd leave this chart I just noticed, BTCEUR for a change. Perfect descending triangle currently in play, in contrast to the symmetrical looking triangle of the BTCUSD. Usually I wouldn't care about the Euro chart, but given the issues with the Dollar Printer ™, I think it's this is an interesting subtle pattern. Target would be €7,150 (currently $8,165), which is also "middle of nowhere" BTC territory; low volume support, no Weekly MA support. Note the purple circled candle that created no local volume support:



In contrast, BTCUSD has a much stranger pattern. Ultimately, a symmetrical triangle towards the end, but with higher lows support trend-line in tact for 2 months now. BTCEUR doesn't have this support, in fact it broke it some-time ago. The red flag within the VPVR histogram is the warning sign of low volume:



Same story on BTCGBP unsuprinsgly. Strong risk/reward ratio in play if you're willing to trade the triangle prior to the break-out. Target would be £6535 (approx $8.210):



I think it's fair to assume a break below $8.6K support could easily lead to a swift move to $8K (-13% from current price), which isn't a level I believe will hold as strong support either.

I'm not too focused on intraday chart patterns in this tight of a market. We need a clean breakout. Yesterday's daily bullish engulfing was a good start. Solid range expansion, good volume.

But honestly, it's hard to focus on the technicals at all when BTC is just following stocks and then trolling when the markets are closed. If the S&P 500 breaches the June low, I expect BTC to follow with a structural breakdown. If the S&P 500 breaches the June high, there's a decent chance BTC will follow but it's a tossup. BTC stayed in range when stocks rallied in late May.

A quick "bullish amendment" to previous TA, "arguably" we are holding the neckline an the inverse head & shoulders that has a measured move (head to neck +5.3%) target to $9,740:



However, based on this short-term bullish pattern being trapped within the longer-term bear channel / descending triangle pattern, as well as being a sloppy h&s with a double right shoulder, I'm not inclined to see the relevance unless $9,400 is convincingly broken. More relevantly, a break below $9,250 would invalidate this head & shoulders pattern, which I find the most likely outcome as someone who's not a fan of h&s patterns - bull/bear channels & ascending/descending triangles are more reliable patterns imo.

As expected, $9,400 remains strong resistance with the confluence of the downwards sloping 200 MA, the bear channel resistance trend-line as well as the 0.618 fib retracement:



Based on longer-term bull vs shorter-term bear channel, and failure of price moving back to the resistance trend-line of the bull channel (instead being rejected by the mid-level), I'm inclined to expect price to now move to the support trend-line of the bear channel, based on recent confirmation of the resistance trend-line. Note that yesterdays bounce was weaker than the previous time we tested the resistance trend-line (June 22nd) with less volume. This isn't a positive sign what so ever:

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The alternative to the bull vs bear channel perspective is the longer-term ascending triangle (bullish) vs shorter-term descending triangle (bearish). While the descending triangle has confirmed with a minimum of three touch-points of support & resistance, it's also clear that from candle body closes this represents more of a bearish channel as opposed to triangle structure and it's measured move target of around -13% to $7,750.

None the less, I'm leaning bearish as price gets rejected from the downwards trending 50 Day MA (second red hammer in quoted screenshot), awaiting to see the outcome of the "yellow triangle", the remaining overlap of the bullish vs bearish triangles. Another break below the support trend-line of the ascending triangle would suggest the shorter-term descending triangle is a stronger pattern that points to lower lows:

Yesterday I referenced a risky Sunday trade on the 4hr chart, while price did drop 1.5% from $9,040 to $8,905 in the right direction, it didn't reach the target of $8,760. At best this would of been a small gain or loss to those shorting the market, if they had already moved a stop loss to break-even after the dragonfly doji on the hourly chart. This is why I referenced the risk of shorting into support, as well as Sunday's price action often acting as weekend noise before the Weekly close. RIP shorts.


Despite a slightly stronger bounce from $9K this time than most recently, I'm still remaining cautious with a bearish bias, merely putting the dead cat bounce to $9.4-9.5K back on the table. Price is still within a month-long bear channel, the expected retracement from the recent $9.8K top to recent lows would be the 0.618 fib at $9,419. The 200 MA is now sloping downwards indicating a bearish trend on this time-frame currently at $9,386. The resistance trend-line of the bear channel is in-between these two resistance levels:

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On the Daily chart, we maintained the higher low after finding support from threatening to break out of the ascending triangle structure (that remains the same as previously drawn). The 21 & 50 MA are sloping downwards indicating bearish pressure, currently at $9,250 and $9,389 respectively, hence strong resistance overhead. If price manages to move above these MAs, the VPVR POC lies at $9.5K that would be the final hurdle:

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The Weekly candle came to a close as a neutral doji, indicating indecision in the market (unsurprisingly). This weeks candle is now on a Red 3 indicating that the short trade on this time-frame would be a move below $8,933. Similar to how last week the Red 2 moving below the Red 1 candle at $8,859 would of activated a short trade based on the TD Sequential. However this didn't occur last week, and there remains a good chance that this week price won't fall below $8,933 either, and that the past 4 Red weekly candles are part of a 1-4 candle correction within a healthy "bullish" correction, as opposed to a longer-term trend change. Only time will tell.



If this week the Red 3 candle does move below the Red 2, then this could however be a very profitable trade, due to the tight stop loss of $9,300 (the high of the Red 2 candle) with a 4:1 risk reward ratio to the 100 Week MA. Even conservatively waiting for the lows of the Red 1 candle ($8,859) to be broken would be a 3.3:1 risk/ward:



For reference sake, it's "suggested" to trade Red 2's moving below Red 1's, and Red 3's below Red 2's, but not 4-9 candles - these are the candles to ride the trade up to the 9, as opposed to opening positions on. Hence, if price stays above last weeks low, by next week there would no longer be a bearish trend-change trade based on the sequential being on a Red 4 (or Green 1 possibly). This is only one indicator, but given price did top out on a 9 candle, I find the Weekly sequential count very relevant right now (more than usual).

Price has again broken below $9K, confirming the bearish descending triangle pattern as well as failing to hold the ascending triangle support while struggling to remain within neutral RSI levels, instead flirting bearish again. This is no time to be going long, recent price action shows it was the time to be getting out of short-term long positions:
 

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Based on the TD Sequential, the Red 2 candle moving below the Red 1 candle (at $9,040) would be the entry for the short-trade. The risk/reward is 3:1, targeting the lows of the bear channel around $8,760 for -3.1% (which is also previous swing lows where a bounce would be likely) with a stop loss at the highs of the Red 1 candle (+1% at $9,130):



While a slightly risky trade, shorting into nearby support, the risk reward is there for leverage traders it seems as price additionally gets rejected by the mid-level of the bear channel, also confirming a short-term trend change. However, based on categorizing current price action as "Weekly noise", it wouldn't be a trade I'd be interested in:



DYOR

A quick update, will give more indepth Daily/Weekly overview another time. Weekly close coming later today, this TA is of weekend noise.

Looking at the Hourly chart for a change, price has formed a distinct descending triangle in the past couple of days. Although shorter-term time-frame triangles are less reliable, as well as the target merely being a 1% drop to the downside if confirmed, the concern would be again re-testing sub $9K levels but this time failing to move higher again. Price is continuing to hold the ascending triangle structure, but now failing to bounce back up from this strong support level. Instead it appears to be weakening as price begins to grind along it:



While previously expecting a dead cat bounce to $9.4K, even $9.5K, price instead recently returned to $9.3K (the 0.5 fib retracement from recent highs) but failed to move higher, it therefore appears that the bounce back was weaker than expected (failed to reach the 0.618 "expected" retracement), showing strong bearish pressure on smaller time-frames:



Price strength on the 4hr chart needs to hold the 40 RSI level (currently around $9,050) to avoid turning bearish and negating bullish divergence on the 4hr chart:



Regardless, until a breakdown is confirmed, price remains "more or less" within a similar inverse head & shoulders fractal with RSI double bottom and bullish divergence:



A break of $9.3K neckline would open the doors for a bull trap to $9.4K - $9.5K.

If there's already been bear traps, and it looks like another bear trap, it's probably a bear trap. Followed by a nasty bull trap:

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Price recently failed to close above $9,350, instead only reaching $9.3K before being pushed back down by the bears. Looking from the triangle perspective on the Daily line chart - that fits better than a 4hr ascending triangle imo - price is still within a higher lows structure, hence expecting a re-test of the mid-level and vpvr poc of this triangle.

Despite failing to re-test the resistance level of $10K of the triangle recently (the question mark), the price has none the less now tested 3 times support and 3 times resistance, giving an even balance of opportunities to breakup or breakdown - it's looking like an open playing field for either the bulls or the bears. Breaking above the mid-level of the triangle (as well as bull flag around $9.8K) would give the bulls the advantage in the short-term.

The bearish divergence on the RSI is beginning to curve off within the neutral zone pointing towards more potential for it to be broken (compared to when it was linear). CMF remains high, indicating that buying pressure remains strong despite the recent sell off. Bulls need to make move before it's too late, bears need to be patient and see where the price goes next. Volume continues to decrease, increasing the likelihood of increased volatility once a breakout occurs (to the upside or downside):

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