Topic: China to overtake the Us as the largest global economy by 2028? - page 6. (Read 950 times)

Over the past 20 years, China has made a significant breakthrough in economic development! I am sure that China will be able to overtake the U.S. economy... By the way, one of the theories about COVID is that it emerged just to influence the Chinese economy...

I was born in the USA.
I lived here most of my life.

Other than 5 years in the USA Navy.

USA is not structured for a pandemic.

China is structured for a pandemic.

Sooo how long before the next pandemic.

Not a very complicated question.

My guess is a new pandemic worse than this one in under 10 years.

I also guess freedom loving anti mask conspiracy people in the USA will not handle it any better than this one.


BTW in no way am I accusing China of creating this pandemic or the next one.
I am simply observing China is better equipped to handle one.

It feels like I returned to the 80s, and I listen to 1 of the 3 available TV channels in the USSR. Classic Soviet propaganda, sample of the 80s
One question - if everything is so bad there, everyone is stupid, everything is degrading - why is the American economy the strongest, the United States is a leader in innovation and technology development, the United States provides financial and technical assistance to half of the world, and for 80% it is a market for selling its products ?! You can fantasize a lot, but reality does not change from this

In fact this topic is my one of the favourite, therefore will address several points mentioned here, as I lived in all 3 places mentioned (USA, China (incl. HK), and Russia), and have well knowledgeable friends from all these places. FYI, I am not Chinese, if that's something you might think about.

The COVID19 has proven that the Chinese medical system is more resilient, and strong government control can take more directed and faster actions as opposed to the ones in USA which we can say more "decentralized" if you wish from the perspective that there are "checks and balances" on each stage of medical system. In Russia on the contrary it's way worse than in the U.S., I personally have married friends who were diagnosed with COVID19 and while they were in quarantine at home, their spouses (who obviously live together), didn't need to take any tests, and could easily go out from home for shopping, and afterwards were even taking some classes in large groups. But in China, even if 1 person was suspected to have COVID-like symptoms, the entire living complex would be blocked and isolated, and literally everyone would be tested and quarantined. As a result, China re-emerged from the virus faster and better than others. However, the CCP understands very well that it's disadvantageous in terms of BioTech innovation as compared to the U.S., therefore, if you have been in China recently and spoke with business community you will know that government is flooding the sector with billions of dollars and they decided to make Wuhan - the med centre of the country.

Now in China you can clearly identify:
Beijing as the political centre,
Shanghai as the centre of international business,
Shenzhen as the centre of tech (software & hardware) innovation,
Guangzhou as the centre of trade,
Hong Kong as the financial centre,
and now it will be Wuhan for life sciences and pharma.

You may like it or not, but CCP will do what it promised, because of million factors that are out of the scope of current discussion, but unlike in Russia where government is also has it's major disadvantages (including corruption), in China, having the same problems, the politicians and CCP has #1 priority - political and economic stability and wellbeing of the nation and country. Not of any single individual, businessman or minority community, but society, nation and country overall! That leads to patriotism which is not there in the USA overall (everyone got own opinion and will complain about the country's problems), and economic power which is not there in Russia (since politicians prioritise personal wellbeing over nation's).

Understanding the above, China not only launches new targeted subsidies and foreign talent acquisition programs, and Chinese from abroad repatriation schemes, but many other reforms which people who don't follow the Chinese-Chinese news (but only Chinese from Western perspective / or Chinese financed by Western) will not know.

So to conclude that part, China is surely developing super fast and many even don't notice that. But China is not yet #1 and it will take years to achieve that, and CCP understands pretty well their own problems, such as shadow banking (solving), p2p scams (solved), tech monopolies (solving), lack of true innovation but rather copy/buyout the western tech & improve (solving). Part of them hinder growth, part of them make China de-facto not able to overtake the U.S. position. But as you hear from news they are solving those part by part.

However, as was correctly mentioned - there are other, more "fundamental" issues (about minorities, different ethnic groups, etc.) and yes they do pose big risks if exploited correctly by external powers. But that's unlikely to happen in the near future, because the USSR experience was studied well and taken into consideration.

Same with Russia's chances for splitting, unlike the current Chinese leadership which puts its own interests first and above all, Russian leadership puts personal stability and interests first, and therefore has a strong power and motivation to silence and control those who pose external and uncontrolled risks to the power, therefore will not allow externalities to split the country. But if economic situation doesn't change - there might be other risks emerging very quickly internally. Besides, when Putin leaves (it will happen eventually) there might be left a huge power vacuum, which might blow the country from inside by the fight of elites, oligarchs and political opposition.

Considering the point mentioned earlier by the forum member that Chinese like to manipulate in their order, well yes and of course - isn't that reasonable? Just like USA manipulates everything towards its own favour, and even international conflicts, just like Russia does so, so will China too. Only stupid country won't do that, no?

Therefore China finances as much as possible of foreign sales markets with its own debt. It's like buying iPhone on credit - you take financing from the company to buy iPhone from Apple, and then you get the phone, but gonna repay the debt eventually. That's the soft power - lend to other nations who are happy to take that money, and if they repay debts - earn, if they don't (and most of them won't) - you dictate your own rules there.

To summarize, my opinion is that in order to evaluate the future potential success of any country, you need to assess it among 4 core dimensions only: 1) economic power, 2) military power, 3) international political power, 4) innovation. Note that most of them cannot be evaluated by 1 single metric (GDP, or R&D spending for example), but you need to consider many related and sub-measures.

USA:
1) economic power: #1, but that's under question for the future
2) military power: #1, army is indeed is the best and most advanced, but not so patriotic though
3) international political power: #1, as no conflict or international matter gets decided without USA
4) innovation: #1, both from commercial perspective and from state-level

China:
1) economic power: #2, but increasing, and now average Chinese from 1st tier city who was born in that city is way more rich than average American (Russia is not even considered here  )
2) military power: #3, and strongly dependent of foreign technology which CCP doesn't have solution to, yet (at least not disclosed / discussed publicly)
3) international political power: #4-5, as China doesn't get itself into every single conflict, but in 2019-2020 that's changing
4) innovation: top10 at best, which CCP tries to solve with big money being thrown here and there, but I personally believe only money will not solve it, as that's more about education, culture, etc (and you can't have great innovation which comes from diversity, and great stability and patriotism, all at the same time)

Russia:
1) economic power: top20, which is hardly imaginable to be changed any time soon, as Russia had good chances in 2000-2002, but... we know where we are now
2) military power: #2, as it indeed produces most advanced weapons and both China has to rely on it, and EU+USA have to deal with it by accelerating own spending, expanding budgets, etc. (in fact if gov would spend more on social wellbeing than on military, maybe it could be more stable and start growing too)
3) international political power: #3-4, which is achievable only due to its military power, otherwise nobody would take Russia seriously
4) innovation: not even top20, if speaking from the broad perspective, as even the Skolkovo project failed and all Russians are laughing about it (because the administrators as always just steal the budgets and "invest" in related companies which then get bankrupt (analogy with DeFis now which are hacked ))

It already happens. You can see in your country, the China product trying to beat the other product from the US, and the product from China offer the same quality with a low price than the other countries. It could give the chance for China to take the top 1 position in the world if the other country, especially the US if they can not compete with China.

looks like it could happen. Seeing China's dominance in world trade and the progress of the Chinese state, it seems that China will be able to take US alit. but the US also will not be silent, they will definitely compete to be in the top 1 position in the world

It’s fine! Everyone is fine!

USA poisons many children with intentional lead water. Makes the kids stupid. Child lead poisoning lowers iq 4-8 points.

USA is a fallen giant. With no real shot to get back up.

This was bound to happen, and I expect the Chinese economy to grow at a much faster pace than expected and overtake the Americans sooner than the analysts are predicting. China has transformed their system from a socialist economy to a capitalist economy, while the US has gone in the opposite direction. With politicians such as Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi in charge, they are inching closer to having a socialist system. And the results will be very much predictable. A socialist economy can never be successful, anywhere in the world.

Whether or not they overtake the US in overall output, the growth is already tapering off. They've become a developed economy, with a quickly growing consumerist middle class and service sector, and also quickly growing demand for higher wages. The old export-based growth model based on cheap Chinese labor is becoming a thing of the past, and so is the associated growth trajectory.


Really? The CCP seems stronger than ever. Honestly, civil war seems more likely in the US. (Not that I think that's likely either)

Not my list but a good one that points out allot of true things.
1. Approximately 57 percent of all children in the United States are living in homes that are either considered to be either “low income” or impoverished.
2. More than 25 percent of all U.S. children have a chronic health condition that affects their ability to learn. Perhaps we should not be feeling them so much junk food.
3. In 2011, SAT scores for young men were the worst that they had been in 40 years.
4. The average young American will spend 10,000 hours playing video games before the age of 21.
5. One study discovered that 88 percent of all Americans between the ages of 8 and 18 play video games, and that approximately four times as many boys are addicted to video games as girls are.
6. According to a survey conducted by the National Geographic Society, only 37 percent of all Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 can find the nation of Iraq on a map.
7. According to one survey, 50 percent of Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 cannot find the state of New York on a blank map.
8. Only 26 percent of Oklahoma high school students know what the first ten amendments to the U.S. Constitution are called.
9. Only 10 percent of Oklahoma high school students know how many justices sit on the Supreme Court. 10. At this point, 15-year-olds that attend U.S. public schools do not even rank in the top half of all industrialized nations when it comes to math or science literacy.
11. Children in the United States are three times more likely to be prescribed antidepressants than children in Europe are.
12. The United States leads the world in eating disorder deaths.
13. The average American drinks more than 600 sodas every single year. That is by far the most in the world.
14. Back in 1962, only 13 percent of all Americans were obese. Right now, approximately 36 percent of all Americans are obese, and it is being projected that number will rise to 42 percent by 2030.
15. In America today, many families allow the television to raise their children. In fact, the United States is tied with the U.K. for the most hours of television watched per person each week.
16. There are more school shootings in America than anywhere else in the world.
17. The United States has the highest divorce rate on the globe by a wide margin. This is ripping millions of families with children to shreds.
18. Without solid family units, more kids than ever are joining gangs. Today, there are approximately 1.4 million gang members living inside the United States. That number has risen by 40 percent just since 2009. 19. There are more than 3 million reports of child abuse in the United States every single year.
20. If you can believe it, an average of five children die as a result of child abuse in the United States every single day.
21. Sadly, the United States actually has the highest child abuse death rate on the entire globe.
22. Approximately 20 percent of all child sexual abuse victims are under the age of 8.
23. In the United States today, it is estimated that one out of every four girls is sexually abused before they become adults.
24. According to researchers, convicted rapists in the United States report that two-thirds of their victims were under 18, and among those cases 58% said that their victims were 12 years old or younger.
25. The percentage of children living in poverty has risen from 17 percent in 2007 to 22 percent today.
26. Today, one out of every four American children is on food stamps.
27. It is being projected that approximately 50 percent of all U.S. children will be on food stamps at some point in their lives before they reach the age of 18.
28. As I have written about previously, approximately 42 percent of all single mothers in the United States are on food stamps.
29. According to the National Center for Children in Poverty, 36.4 percent of all children that live in Philadelphia are living in poverty, 40.1 percent of all children that live in Atlanta are living in poverty, 52.6 percent of all children that live in Cleveland are living in poverty and 53.6 percent of all children that live in Detroit are living in poverty.
30. It is estimated that up to half a million children may currently be homeless in the United States.
31. It is estimated that child homelessness in the United States has risen by 33 percent since 2007.
32. Right now, approximately 25 million American adults are living with their parents.
33. Law enforcement officials estimate that about 600,000 Americans and about 65,000 Canadians are trading dirty child pictures online.
34. The average high school boy spends two hours watching pornography every single week.
35. An astounding 30 percent of all Internet traffic now goes to pornography websites, and the U.S. producesmore pornography than any other nation has in the history of the world.
36. In the United States today, 47 percent of all high school students have had sex.
37. One out of every four teen girls in the United States now has an STD.
38. The United States has the highest teen pregnancy rate on the entire planet by a wide margin.
39. One survey found that one out of every five teen girls actually wants to be a teen mom.
40. We have borrowed 16 trillion dollars that we expect future generations to repay. We have consigned our children and our grandchildren to a lifetime of debt slavery and they don’t even realize it yet. When they do realize what we have done to them they will probably curse us bitterly.

Usersmcould be in denial of what could happen next but the fact is that China had successfully dominate even in the crypto space. The products that american buys in the market are from China, almost everything we use today are made in China. 10 years could be too long for them to actually be the number one.

Lol. What is up with these Chinese dominance threads these days? China overtaking USA? Absolute nonsense. Russia seems to have better chances in this regard though USA is still miles ahead in so many ways when compared to both countries in my opinion.

COVID-19 has affected all countries and a pandemic won't change the power rankings that easily. The American language, universities, culture, economy etc are far superior when compared to China or Russia.

People have made many similar assumptions in the past, but nothing clearly changed and it will probably stay the same for a long time in the future.

Not likely at all.  The western world expected that China modernizing its economy and becoming more open would hasten the communist party's decline, but the opposite has happened. There is no internal pressure to break up the country or the party as long as the economy is improving the lives of citizens. The party is as strong as ever.

China today, of course, is one of the world leaders, it's hard to argue here. But there are nuances. China, as the largest producer of everything, NEEDS sales markets, without which their economy will not be able to develop. The domestic market is certainly not small either, but it does not bring foreign exchange profit, and without this the economy will not work either, because any isolated and "closed" economy tends to collapse. Moreover, China objectively needs expansion and new territories. There are economic, political and historical reasons for this. Moreover, Russia gave an example, showing that it is possible to annex foreign territories under the most idiotic pretexts, and China in a sense supported Russia without saying a clear "no". Now China will refer to this "right" to absorb the eastern territories of Russia, which for the last 10+ years have been assimilated through the settlement of the Chinese. In some eastern regions of Russia, Chinese is already spoken, and the Russian population is an almost powerless minority. Plus, the flirting of the Kremlin regime unties China's hands - the Kremlin rulers have given China a 50-90-year lease, millions of hectares of the Trans-Urals, allowing them not only to do whatever they want with resources, but also to use their legislation (the so-called regions with a special legislative framework, where the de facto laws of Russia do not work). As a result, it is important for China to keep the US and the EU as consumers of products manufactured by China, Russia as a raw material / territorial appendage of China.
PS For the sake of interest, see what camouflage colors the PRC army uses - they are unlikely to be preparing for a ground operation against Canada

China can't be trusted with any statistics, and there has been a lot of rumors and theories that China lies about its covid rates. Also, covid is their fault, if they banned their stupid wet markets, millions of people around the world wouldn't have to die. They were perfectly aware about this danger, since it's not the first outbreak that originates from these markets, so China should absolutely not be praised.

But US response was horrible, they failed to implement proper quarantine and a lot of people just refused to follow the basic guidelines like wearing a mask, because they believe in conspiracy theories.

Right now China is very strong, both in terms of domestic and foreign governance. besides that they are also able to overcome Covid19 easily (almost perfectly). and they currently dominate trade in quite large commodities. maybe the current US political cycle makes them not strong enough, because they seem fragmented as a large nation

I think Russia is more likely to have a civil war than China but I could be wrong. Rising powers often have civil wars as in the case of the US, Soviet Union, Britain, Japan, Rome, etc.

I do not know why but I had the same idea, I thought that China had surpassed the US already but it seems this is not the case yet according to the data shared on the thread, still as they say this is a matter of time if things keep going in this direction.

Which is why I find the prediction about China and Russia splitting to be such a curious thing, an open war will be disastrous for the world so countries need to rely in underhanded methods to try to undermine their opponents and to try to incite civil unrest seems like a good tactic but I do not really see how Chinese will go through something like that when they put so much effort to keep their citizens in check.