Joe comes in all colors. The point is for every dollar made on every rise there is a dollar lost. That's why people call this a Ponzie scheme, we aren't betting on anything but vapor. So, do you think pros gave money to pros or Joe gave money to pros on that rise? my bet is Joe was the main buyer up top.
You know I'm right Matt, you've said it all in prior posts. This has been a game to make money off Joe for quite awhile now. Underneath it all is some really cool shit though, which is why I'm interested and trying to gather coins cheaply for the long term. If I thought this was really nothing more than a scheme I'd never have looked twice at it.
Topic: Chooo, chooo! Everyone agrees, it's reversal time! ... except for Bitfinex. (Read 4829 times)
February 28, 2014, 01:11:04 PM
February 28, 2014, 01:06:51 PM
Your friends and family are right to be concerned, they don't want you knocking on their doors broke asking for help lol. They represent the general public, whom btc needs for any serious rise. Saying traders will cause an increase is like saying used car lots can exist selling to each other. You need Joe Blow and his cash to raise the market, anyone who doesn't get that is pretty clueless.
You need Joe Blow and his cash to hit new ATH's. He is not needed to raise the market. Bitcoin is already awash with liquidity enough from pre-existing traders.
After all, was it Joe Blow who was responsible for raising market from $380 to $1000, Dec 17th - Jan 6th?
Wait a second, whoa whoa whoa...I thought it was Sum Yung Guy who was responsible for raising the market?
February 28, 2014, 01:03:56 PM
No pro is going to get caught holding $1k coins, so yeah - I think Joe had a lot to do with that rise.
February 28, 2014, 12:53:42 PM
Your friends and family are right to be concerned, they don't want you knocking on their doors broke asking for help lol. They represent the general public, whom btc needs for any serious rise. Saying traders will cause an increase is like saying used car lots can exist selling to each other. You need Joe Blow and his cash to raise the market, anyone who doesn't get that is pretty clueless.
You need Joe Blow and his cash to hit new ATH's. He is not needed to raise the market. Bitcoin is already awash with liquidity enough from pre-existing traders.
After all, was it Joe Blow who was responsible for raising market from $380 to $1000, Dec 17th - Jan 6th?
February 28, 2014, 12:47:32 PM
Your friends and family are right to be concerned, they don't want you knocking on their doors broke asking for help lol. They represent the general public, whom btc needs for any serious rise. Saying traders will cause an increase is like saying used car lots can exist selling to each other. You need Joe Blow and his cash to raise the market, anyone who doesn't get that is pretty clueless.
February 28, 2014, 12:36:33 PM
Sure he does, you think the November spike was holders and early adopters? Joe Blow is either doing 1 of 2 things, and neither of them is buying right now.
Although I have bought and spent (and even held without necessarily speculating) Bitcoins since 2011, in November 2013, I was Joe Blow. And charging in I came, with what started as £5K of capital and what has snowballed into £15K of capital into the market.
What could have tempted me?
Maniacal news reports and ever increasing price?
The fact that I just sold 15 'unneeded Silk Road' coins at $340, and then had a dream of Bitcoins going through $600?
A combination of them all is the truth.
Now as a novice trader who is learning all the time, notwithstanding probable further near term corrections to find a support above the $400 bottom, everything I know about TA (not that much to be fair) and the general feeling I have in my bones (served me damn well up till now), tells me that right about here, at a carefully chosen price point, Bitcoin is a good near term investment.
In the meantime, I am getting Emails and text messages from worried friends and family concerned for my well being after the catastrophic collapse of 'the biggest and most important Bitcoin exchange'.
Joe Blow is not touching Bitcoin right now with a 10ft long shitty bargepole. But Joe Trader knows that at least for the time being, Bitcoin should generally rise, as opposed to go on to find new lows in the immediate future. Most likely lower lows are coming before new ATH, just not quite yet.
February 28, 2014, 12:28:22 PM
Still looks like a bear market to me...
The good news is; unless we get some more seriously bad news soon, our next dip will probably find the bottom and ignite a trend reversal.
The good news is; unless we get some more seriously bad news soon, our next dip will probably find the bottom and ignite a trend reversal.
February 28, 2014, 12:26:02 PM
Sure he does, you think the November spike was holders and early adopters? Joe Blow is either doing 1 of 2 things, and neither of them is buying right now.
I doubt we will see $400 again in the next few days, but this choo choo train shit is pure denial.
I doubt we will see $400 again in the next few days, but this choo choo train shit is pure denial.
February 28, 2014, 12:25:43 PM
Not sure why you are short term bullish, Joe Blow is out for now, this shit is going down again soon.
Once Joe is out, we go up.
February 28, 2014, 12:21:17 PM
Not sure why you are short term bullish, Joe Blow is out for now, this shit is going down again soon.
Yep. Joe blow isn't running to the market with bundles of fiat to pour it into Bitcoin. Joe blow is sending Emails to his Bitcoiner mates warning him that Bitcoin is doomed. That is one of the reasons why I am still bearish in the longer term and believe that lower lows will come.
But are you still trading Bitcoin?
Is everyone who was already trading Bitcoin still trading Bitcoin?
Of course they all are. And most of them believe that the low was in, and most of them are now bullish as hell, with starry eyed visions of $5K by June 2014!
This alone along with a great many other 'reversal' technical indicators suggests to me that after support is found anywhere anywhere between $470 -$550, that Bitcoin will trend up. Market manipulators will both allow and encourage this as the more fiat that pours into Bitcoin, the better it is for them. There are a shit ton of clueless idiots got dirty rich in Bitcoin. That means a shit-ton of money to be emptied into the koffers of the syndicate that I am calling the Chinese Cyber Cowboys. I have no proof that such a truppe of bandit hackers exist in Bitcoinland, but I did have a dream about them, all the major action in Bitcoin occurs during Chine Prime Time (when all the rest of us want to be in our beds), and Huobi is by far the most 'influential' Bitcoin exchange.
Joe Blow doesn't move markets
February 28, 2014, 12:19:12 PM
Huh-uh. Most that are still in are not going to pay $600/btc - they are not starry-eyed, that would be Joe Blow when he sees the price spike. I don't think any rational person into btc really thinks this whole Mtcocks thing is over and done with and on the train we go. Some here say they are but are they talking their book? We are going down again.
February 28, 2014, 01:35:47 AM
Not sure why you are short term bullish, Joe Blow is out for now, this shit is going down again soon.
Yep. Joe blow isn't running to the market with bundles of fiat to pour it into Bitcoin. Joe blow is sending Emails to his Bitcoiner mates warning him that Bitcoin is doomed. That is one of the reasons why I am still bearish in the longer term and believe that lower lows will come.
But are you still trading Bitcoin?
Is everyone who was already trading Bitcoin still trading Bitcoin?
Of course they all are. And most of them believe that the low was in, and most of them are now bullish as hell, with starry eyed visions of $5K by June 2014!
This alone along with a great many other 'reversal' technical indicators suggests to me that after support is found anywhere anywhere between $470 -$550, that Bitcoin will trend up. Market manipulators will both allow and encourage this as the more fiat that pours into Bitcoin, the better it is for them. There are a shit ton of clueless idiots got dirty rich in Bitcoin. That means a shit-ton of money to be emptied into the koffers of the syndicate that I am calling the Chinese Cyber Cowboys. I have no proof that such a truppe of bandit hackers exist in Bitcoinland, but I did have a dream about them, all the major action in Bitcoin occurs during Chine Prime Time (when all the rest of us want to be in our beds), and Huobi is by far the most 'influential' Bitcoin exchange.
February 28, 2014, 01:17:19 AM
Not sure why you are short term bullish, Joe Blow is out for now, this shit is going down again soon.
February 27, 2014, 08:38:09 PM
And that's why it's probably a bad idea to ever let your leveraged position "sitting" for longer than a few hours. Don't know what's the technical term is for that...
What I mean is, I can see how leveraged trading makes sense during, and I really mean: right during a violent swing. But I simply can't ever imagine placing the same bet *and then walking away from the computer*. But maybe more skilled traders know what they're doing...
What I mean is, I can see how leveraged trading makes sense during, and I really mean: right during a violent swing. But I simply can't ever imagine placing the same bet *and then walking away from the computer*. But maybe more skilled traders know what they're doing...
Go back to the $100 flash crashes on the two shorting exchanges, BTC-E and Bitfinex. Anyone sitting with a leveraged long position would have taken a 100% hit on their capital before they had the chance to exit the market. These things happen in Bitcoin all the time, whether it be a server hack (as applies to those two as far as I am concerned) or some mad dump. Never seen a $600 dollar 2 minute spike up the way though. Conclusion, leveraged shorting is far safer in this market than leveraged long trading. Setting Stop Losses on Bitfinec or BTC-e is just asking to have your arse farmed and money stolen of you. Therefore trading long with leverage is prohibitive.
But you are probably right regarding the timing of leveraged trades..I do leveraged shorts during static market trends because I am an impulsive idiot... Leverage is only for when you are really sure that the market is about to make a big move. Right now for example, many people believe that the market is in for a text book 66% correction and therefore the short trades are maxed to the full. This has probably determined the recent tight market as sellers cancel out buyers, and exchange associate bots sit and happily knudge the momentum up to farm low risk tolerant traders leveraged short bets, whilst making the odd brief soiree to the lower trend line to farm the longs (yup, I believe BTC-e and Bitfinex are corrupt places and actively practice squeezing of leveraged traders with perfect market knowledge in order to enhance their profits......many of these 'peculiar' huge Bid Walls that appear on Stamp are actually being made on Bitfinex).
What I think is away to happen at the end of this pennant formation is a break up the way, which will squeeze shorts out of the trade further pushing price higher and which will turn out to be a bull trap of sorts. Longs will pile in, and then will come the dumps, forcing a correction, but only down to around the $550 level where the dumpers will be competing to get back in and take their scumbag rat bastard profits. I just don't feel $400 range Bitcoin occurring anytime soon and think the near-medium term trend from here is mostly up. However, in light of TERA's pointing out the odd indicator signals of this particular crash, I do believe that we will be visiting the $400 range and possibly lower before we see any ATHs.
Fuck Gox and all those other stories that are attributed to price movement. Bitcoin is behaving like it is because it is being fucked with by people who are milking it for everything they can get out it. I am turning bullish for the time being, but long term, I am still a bear and believe lower lows are yet to come some ways down the line. Bitcoin doesn't flash crash to make its final capitulation bottom and then almost recover within one day. This just does not feel like a low to me. Too much euphoria and back slapping going on for that. Even I predicted 'bottom' within $20 (too low unfortunately for me) weeks and weeks ago using the most rudimentary TA 101 skills. Seems all far too textbook for my liking. I didn't follow Bitcoin so closely until November 2013, but I am pretty sure that with the last two post bubble bear trend lows, that people actually involved in Bitcoin felt like the end was nigh.
We will see how things go when we get back up to the $800 level.
Cheers for the link btw.
February 27, 2014, 03:24:06 PM
Why more faith in EMA than SMA?
I have no way of giving a conclusive answer, but basically, when I hunt for signs of trends by looking at price in relation to moving averages, I tend to get much clearer patterns using EMA than SMA. But that's really hard to *prove* in a proper way, so I can't just say much more than: I personally work better with them.
Sorry for a bit of a disappointingly uninformative answer :/
February 27, 2014, 03:20:12 PM
I suspect that some rich people that lost a little play money on gox have realised they'll need to buy in again ASAP while the price is still supressed from the gox panic.
Yes. Because if you had just been totally burned investing in what you always knew was a high risk asset, you would be chomping at the bit to get yet more millions into the same asset on another potentially high risk exchange.
That is totally how human psychology works!
Maybe the bear mood finally got me, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up not only at the daily EMA200, but the 300 again.
Never bet against the 4Hr indictators. They are all maxed, and looking to head back down the way. We may get a slight rise, trend further, a slight dip followed by another slight rise. But shorting right now has got to be a good bet, at least until lower $500s and probably a bit more......lets face it, hardly a good news week.
Short right now at $588. Chance are this will be within $1-$3 of the best short price on offer today.
Huh? How am I betting against 4hr indicators? TERA and windjc were mentioning revisiting the 200 day EMA at around 530, and I simply said I can even see us going back to the 300 day EMA (at around 430 right now). Not today, not tomorrow, but as part of a continued dragged out capitulation.
That said, I'm also looking at the 2h view with a BB, and I can see a slightly more positive scenario: According to that interpretation, we saw the overbought state we were in in the last 24h resolve in an *extremely* controlled fashion, and we can now actually expect another small bounce up. This *does* mean price shouldn't go below 545/550 in the next 24 hours, otherwise, the pattern I see is broken. If however we *do* go above 600 again in the next 24h and stay there, it'd be a pretty good sign... in the sense that we're working out way up, staying the upper half of the BB, with the necessary retracements only briefly touching the lower BB bounds.
Oda, I am confused by your post.
First, why do you predict a possible retracement to the 300 SMA? We haven't been that low since 2012 when we were flatlined for(ever). The silk road crash didnt even touch the 300.
Also, I have the 200 at around 475 and the 300 around 360. Not sure where you are getting your #s from for these moving averages.
Your answer is: I'm talking about EMAs
I never use SMA, don't trust them. When you guys talk about touching the SMA200 again, I tend to translate it in my head to an EMA300. Not exactly equivalent, but I have more faith in it.
Why more faith in EMA than SMA?
February 27, 2014, 03:14:32 PM
I suspect that some rich people that lost a little play money on gox have realised they'll need to buy in again ASAP while the price is still supressed from the gox panic.
Yes. Because if you had just been totally burned investing in what you always knew was a high risk asset, you would be chomping at the bit to get yet more millions into the same asset on another potentially high risk exchange.
That is totally how human psychology works!
Maybe the bear mood finally got me, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up not only at the daily EMA200, but the 300 again.
Never bet against the 4Hr indictators. They are all maxed, and looking to head back down the way. We may get a slight rise, trend further, a slight dip followed by another slight rise. But shorting right now has got to be a good bet, at least until lower $500s and probably a bit more......lets face it, hardly a good news week.
Short right now at $588. Chance are this will be within $1-$3 of the best short price on offer today.
Huh? How am I betting against 4hr indicators? TERA and windjc were mentioning revisiting the 200 day EMA at around 530, and I simply said I can even see us going back to the 300 day EMA (at around 430 right now). Not today, not tomorrow, but as part of a continued dragged out capitulation.
That said, I'm also looking at the 2h view with a BB, and I can see a slightly more positive scenario: According to that interpretation, we saw the overbought state we were in in the last 24h resolve in an *extremely* controlled fashion, and we can now actually expect another small bounce up. This *does* mean price shouldn't go below 545/550 in the next 24 hours, otherwise, the pattern I see is broken. If however we *do* go above 600 again in the next 24h and stay there, it'd be a pretty good sign... in the sense that we're working out way up, staying the upper half of the BB, with the necessary retracements only briefly touching the lower BB bounds.
Oda, I am confused by your post.
First, why do you predict a possible retracement to the 300 SMA? We haven't been that low since 2012 when we were flatlined for(ever). The silk road crash didnt even touch the 300.
Also, I have the 200 at around 475 and the 300 around 360. Not sure where you are getting your #s from for these moving averages.
Your answer is: I'm talking about EMAs :D
I never use SMA, don't trust them. When you guys talk about touching the SMA200 again, I tend to translate it in my head to an EMA300. Not exactly equivalent, but I have more faith in it.
February 27, 2014, 03:08:02 PM
I suspect that some rich people that lost a little play money on gox have realised they'll need to buy in again ASAP while the price is still supressed from the gox panic.
Yes. Because if you had just been totally burned investing in what you always knew was a high risk asset, you would be chomping at the bit to get yet more millions into the same asset on another potentially high risk exchange.
That is totally how human psychology works!
Maybe the bear mood finally got me, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up not only at the daily EMA200, but the 300 again.
Never bet against the 4Hr indictators. They are all maxed, and looking to head back down the way. We may get a slight rise, trend further, a slight dip followed by another slight rise. But shorting right now has got to be a good bet, at least until lower $500s and probably a bit more......lets face it, hardly a good news week.
Short right now at $588. Chance are this will be within $1-$3 of the best short price on offer today.
Huh? How am I betting against 4hr indicators? TERA and windjc were mentioning revisiting the 200 day EMA at around 530, and I simply said I can even see us going back to the 300 day EMA (at around 430 right now). Not today, not tomorrow, but as part of a continued dragged out capitulation.
That said, I'm also looking at the 2h view with a BB, and I can see a slightly more positive scenario: According to that interpretation, we saw the overbought state we were in in the last 24h resolve in an *extremely* controlled fashion, and we can now actually expect another small bounce up. This *does* mean price shouldn't go below 545/550 in the next 24 hours, otherwise, the pattern I see is broken. If however we *do* go above 600 again in the next 24h and stay there, it'd be a pretty good sign... in the sense that we're working out way up, staying the upper half of the BB, with the necessary retracements only briefly touching the lower BB bounds.
Oda, I am confused by your post.
First, why do you predict a possible retracement to the 300 SMA? We haven't been that low since 2012 when we were flatlined for(ever). The silk road crash didnt even touch the 300.
Also, I have the 200 at around 475 and the 300 around 360. Not sure where you are getting your #s from for these moving averages.
February 27, 2014, 11:26:43 AM
Short right now at $588. Chance are this will be within $1-$3 of the best short price on offer today.
Price just hit 598.87.. bulls are going for another attempt at breaking through 600. I think there must be so many shorts going on right now that if they get squeezed out by a few whales we might just ramp up to $800 in one go lol.
And that's why it's probably a bad idea to ever let your leveraged position "sitting" for longer than a few hours. Don't know what's the technical term is for that...
What I mean is, I can see how leveraged trading makes sense during, and I really mean: right during a violent swing. But I simply can't ever imagine placing the same bet *and then walking away from the computer*. But maybe more skilled traders know what they're doing...
February 27, 2014, 11:23:54 AM
Huh? How am I betting against 4hr indicators? TERA and windjc were mentioning revisiting the 200 day EMA at around 530, and I simply said I can even see us going back to the 300 day EMA (at around 430 right now). Not today, not tomorrow, but as part of a continued dragged out capitulation.
That said, I'm also looking at the 2h view with a BB, and I can see a slightly more positive scenario: According to that interpretation, we saw the overbought state we were in in the last 24h resolve in an *extremely* controlled fashion, and we can now actually expect another small bounce up. This *does* mean price shouldn't go below 545/550 in the next 24 hours, otherwise, the pattern I see is broken. If however we *do* go above 600 again in the next 24h and stay there, it'd be a pretty good sign... in the sense that we're working out way up, staying the upper half of the BB, with the necessary retracements only briefly touching the lower BB bounds.
That said, I'm also looking at the 2h view with a BB, and I can see a slightly more positive scenario: According to that interpretation, we saw the overbought state we were in in the last 24h resolve in an *extremely* controlled fashion, and we can now actually expect another small bounce up. This *does* mean price shouldn't go below 545/550 in the next 24 hours, otherwise, the pattern I see is broken. If however we *do* go above 600 again in the next 24h and stay there, it'd be a pretty good sign... in the sense that we're working out way up, staying the upper half of the BB, with the necessary retracements only briefly touching the lower BB bounds.
Yeah....2hr charts are in no-mans land but with 4 hr charts looming bearishly above. This probs means extended stagnation period before a gradual grind down to find a support level as opposed to the kind of sharp moves that we have witnessed recently.
btw, where are you getting the information on the swap deals from Bitfinex. This is information that I would prove of use to me.
You were expecting to go through 620 right away? You need a 60%+ rally, and the 53% rally wasn't good enough for you? Keep in mind most btc recoveries only rally 20% on the first leg...
Also can you explain the "supression" effect. How do shorts continue to prevent the price from going up on an ongoing basis? Even if it did, I still think that's a good thing to have on your side when you're opening a long. The opposite would be when everyone else is leveraged long, and they are all waiting for a point to sell... Or do you consider that these longs magically cause on ongoing rally also?
Also can you explain the "supression" effect. How do shorts continue to prevent the price from going up on an ongoing basis? Even if it did, I still think that's a good thing to have on your side when you're opening a long. The opposite would be when everyone else is leveraged long, and they are all waiting for a point to sell... Or do you consider that these longs magically cause on ongoing rally also?
$646 - $400
$400 - $610
I make that an 85% recovery.
http://charts-bfxdata.rhcloud.com/
Select BTC or USD as unit at the top menu, to see totals of either.
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