It's certainly starting to look a bit more bullish again, doesn't it? There's still uncertainty in the air about how the gox situation will resolve, but that rebound from 400 was beautiful: loads of volume, and remarkably controlled retracement so far. All in all, I think I'm not the only one who looks at the charts and starts wondering if the post-December-ATH bear market is maybe over...
If it weren't for the stats from Bitfinex. This is a view of the past week. 'Total sum of active USD swaps', i.e. people going long on leverage is, well, unimpressive.
No big deal, maybe. But then there's total BTC swaps:
It's a new ATH (at least as far as the website, charts-bfxdata.rhcloud.com, goes back). In other words, traders on Bitfinex are still shorting the hell out of Bitcoin.
I can see two ways this will resolve: Bitfinex reaction is lagging, price continues to climb (which will lead to a lot of headache for those with active shorts), or the shorting traders are onto something, and we're coming down again, hard.
Personally, I can't say exactly which way I'm leaning -- I'm still cautiously optimistic, but the Bitfinex stats certainly put some more doubt into my mind again.
