Maybe the bear mood finally got me, but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up not only at the daily EMA200, but the 300 again.
re: "this rally has legs"... that's exactly what I'm doubting, and as much as shorts can be seen as a "load down coil", it can also be the suppressor that keeps it down. I would have really liked to see us go through 620 on decent volume, but neither are we near that price, nor did volume keep up. Maybe it's a resting state after being overbought, but right now, I'm as skeptical as I was on the 23rd (i.e. when we were at 640/650, before dropping back to 400). Not saying that'll happen again, but like I said: my sentiment is short&mid term bearish, and it takes some more to convince me we're turning around this time.
Also can you explain the "supression" effect. How do shorts continue to prevent the price from going up on an ongoing basis? Even if it did, I still think that's a good thing to have on your side when you're opening a long. The opposite would be when everyone else is leveraged long, and they are all waiting for a point to sell... Or do you consider that these longs magically cause on ongoing rally also?
Because, as I said above, the biggest surprise to me wasn't that shorts were at an ATH, but they were *rising*. Shorts being piled on top of even more shorts... there is no "magic" going on at all, I'm just looking for information that diverges from the prevalent expectations. A trend of traders increasing their leveraged short positions is such information. I really think any secondary interpretations ("would you rather have them being long already") are, well, secondary. A massive, *increasing* short wall is not, in any reasonable interpretation, a bullish signal.
That said, I've also mentioned right from the beginning, that finex shorters have been burned badly before, when their collective bet against an uptrend was simply trampled down. There's enough evidence for that in the end of last year (autum, before the last leg of the rally leading to December ATH)
