Just found this thread today ggggrrrrr
when is the next batch?
Topic: [CLOSED] Block Erupter USB @ 0.20 BTC + parcel -> Shipping to anywhere! - page 18. (Read 54775 times)
June 02, 2013, 07:03:02 PM
June 02, 2013, 08:59:12 AM
How do I get a couple more? Still taking orders for that 2nd batch?
I would also be interested in an other batch.
June 02, 2013, 06:46:49 AM
You had to pay VAT? if so how much?
It´s all in the order book, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqgZtLSqKPzQdFFqNzNST2MzQUtQWTVzVTVsS3k3VVE&usp=sharing
You pay UK VAT of 20 % on the value of your USB-stick. So that is approx 1$ or 0.007 BTC on 5$ value. Not so much, because it is only USB sticks ;-)
June 02, 2013, 02:40:12 AM
So, designating p = 0.00342634853731, our cumulative probability approximation will be about:
p + .9p + .9^2 p + .9^3 p ....
which at infinity sums to 10p. Thus, under these conditions, the upper bound (remember that summing probabilities produces a higher value than the proper multiplicative cumulative probability) is going to be 0.0342634853731. so /at infinity/, your probability of generating a block is only 3.4% or so.[/i] And conversely, your probability of /never generating a block even after millions of years/ is about 96+ percent.
p + .9p + .9^2 p + .9^3 p ....
which at infinity sums to 10p. Thus, under these conditions, the upper bound (remember that summing probabilities produces a higher value than the proper multiplicative cumulative probability) is going to be 0.0342634853731. so /at infinity/, your probability of generating a block is only 3.4% or so.[/i] And conversely, your probability of /never generating a block even after millions of years/ is about 96+ percent.
WOW! Look that lads! We have a red hair Russian Irish temper girl among us which is quite talented in mathematics! It is not that amazing? I am quite surprised.
All right, today I will prepare the material to pack and ship the product. So tomorrow I will start to post the product to the buyers.
By the way, photos of the Block Erupter USB coming later today. Keep tuned in.
June 01, 2013, 11:59:32 PM
The time taken to find 1 block would be 4 years 338 days for 1 stick according to http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/, or am I missing something?
This being from article a year ago when difficulty much lower, but still applying even though time to find block now multiplied by 4 times at current difficulty. Chance not 1 in 60 from mining for one month - sayer not knowing how probability working. Probability to EVER generate ANY block solo mining now 3.4% / 4 = 0.85% and chance to NEVER generate block in under 1.4 million years when solo mining at < 1Gh/s now 99+% percent
So now, let's find what our cumulative probability will be to generate a block. As a rough approximation, our cumulative probability of generating a block under these conditions, after N difficulty periods, would be sum(probability for individual periods). Actually the approximation will be higher than actual probability, since they're not really additive - though the addition is a pretty good approximation when the probabilities are so low. So, designating p = 0.00342634853731, our cumulative probability approximation will be about:
p + .9p + .9^2 p + .9^3 p ....
which at infinity sums to 10p. Thus, under these conditions, the upper bound (remember that summing probabilities produces a higher value than the proper multiplicative cumulative probability) is going to be 0.0342634853731. so /at infinity/, your probability of generating a block is only 3.4% or so. And conversely, your probability of /never generating a block even after millions of years/ is about 96+ percent.
June 01, 2013, 09:06:20 PM
BBC BREAKING NEWS: Mr Croppo receives package loaded with making money sticks!
http://i.imgur.com/vYDtbh8.png
http://i.imgur.com/vYDtbh8.png
Yippy!
June 01, 2013, 06:47:25 PM
Back on topic (or kind of), does anyone else here expect a price drop on AM hardware, sooner than later? With the difficulty probably going >14M in less than a week, they will already have about -33% yield in BTC compared to what they were at launch.
As long as they are the only one shipping I don't see that heppening. It might be 10 or 20% but not much more... But if home made ASIC comes on a market... Than it will changed a lot of things... 
June 01, 2013, 05:39:13 PM
Did you consider doing group buy for Avalon chips and K16 boards? I think it will take 2 to 3 months but price is good. 3BTC or so for 4.5GH/s. Or is that also forbidden topic?
A+C is doing such an excellent job, I would be in for any GB involving Avalon chips :-)
I still have about 9 Ghash/sec worth of GPUs to be replaced by ASICs.
Back on topic (or kind of), does anyone else here expect a price drop on AM hardware, sooner than later? With the difficulty probably going >14M in less than a week, they will already have about -33% yield in BTC compared to what they were at launch.
June 01, 2013, 05:13:28 PM
Did you consider doing group buy for Avalon chips and K16 boards? I think it will take 2 to 3 months but price is good. 3BTC or so for 4.5GH/s. Or is that also forbidden topic?
June 01, 2013, 05:09:58 PM
Hey A+C if you want to mine with my miner during the weekend I don't mind, at least I will know it is not faulty. Send it on Monday though if you can 
No!
The product belongs to the buyer, so I will leave intact in the paper box with the seal "Q.C. passed". However tomorrow I will have a photo of one Block Erupter USB which is for warranty replacement. But just the photo, I will not test or use the device.
June 01, 2013, 05:02:11 PM
Topic being hijacked as another anti BFL rant. Enough of those threads elsewhere. Please move there.
Back on topic of BlockEruptors, can you post pics of colours etc?
So excited!
Myrdd
Back on topic of BlockEruptors, can you post pics of colours etc?
So excited!
Myrdd
It is not incredible how this BFL marketing is literally viral? BFL virus infected my thread!
Anyway, as long everyone here speaks against BFL everything will be fine, otherwise I will cut the conversation with the might power of self-moderation.
Beware!
June 01, 2013, 04:54:07 PM
How do I get a couple more? Still taking orders for that 2nd batch?
Yes, if you are ready to pay just fill this form:
https://sites.google.com/site/groupbuyuktrader/home
I will list you in the Trader's Book.
June 01, 2013, 04:42:09 PM
BBC BREAKING NEWS: Mr Croppo receives package loaded with making money sticks!
You had to pay VAT? if so how much?
June 01, 2013, 04:34:57 PM
Anybody knows. Is is possible to mine with thous units on a same cgminer that is running GPUs?
June 01, 2013, 04:30:24 PM
Hey A+C if you want to mine with my miner during the weekend I don't mind, at least I will know it is not faulty. Send it on Monday though if you can
I guess he's working like Santa Claus at the moment
June 01, 2013, 04:28:48 PM
Hey A+C if you want to mine with my miner during the weekend I don't mind, at least I will know it is not faulty. Send it on Monday though if you can
June 01, 2013, 08:43:47 AM
He saying books are straight so no body can be going to jail, but hundred-of-thousand of BTC being stashed away in secret and not being found when going bankrupt. Law can only say bad managers, not fraud. He not telling how he finds out this - but he having something to do with p2pool.
Topic being hijacked as another anti BFL rant. Enough of those threads elsewhere. Please move there.
Back on topic of BlockEruptors, can you post pics of colours etc?
So excited!
Myrdd
June 01, 2013, 07:53:29 AM
Am having friend who saying knows BFL actually building units but not shipping because each unit making more in 6 or 8 days of mining than money charging for them. Only sending units for reviewers to getting more people to buy after reading reviews. Not planning to ship to others until after not so profitable to mine with them. He saying BFL not planning to ship until middle 2014 and not caring if people cancel orders or not.
If this is true I hope all of them finish in the jail.
June 01, 2013, 04:29:24 AM
BFL is shipping? When did you order yours?
They shipped a couple of them, but they have a long way to go...
And SilentSonicBoom got in from an auction, not directly from BFL.
There is a blog where they mentioned shipping a whole 12 one day to developers and reviewrs, then went on for few days quoting the date of the orders they were shipping (all from the first day). they then went on to whine about the number of emails they got when they asked people to confirm their orders, and this was stopping them shipping, and then shipped nothing for ages.
Bob
June 01, 2013, 12:01:50 AM
BFL is shipping? When did you order yours?
They shipped a couple of them, but they have a long way to go...
And SilentSonicBoom got in from an auction, not directly from BFL.
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