Topic: [CLOSED] BTC Guild - Pays TxFees+NMC, Stratum, VarDiff, Private Servers - page 254. (Read 903150 times)

You can't predict the future.  I can't either.  You gamble by buying BTC.  I hope it pays off for you.  I'm gambling with my erupters.  I have them, and no matter how much griping you guys do about "you would have made more by buying BTC", I'm not going back in time and changing my decision.

As for the numbers, go here:

http://dustcoin.com/mining

I have 22 erupters at the moment (7.3gh/s).  Electricity is $0.06/kwh.  They use 2.5W a piece, total of 55W of power being drawn.  As of now I'm making $243 a month after electricity at current USD.  Factors to consider that I'm not factoring in:

- difficulty is higher than it was a month ago
- USD price is higher than it was a month ago
- I didn't measure the power usage of the erupter, going by stated value
- I don't have a way of measuring how much power the host system is using.  There are GPUs on there well that have been running fine for months, I'm not about to disturb the setup.

I'm sure you'll point out any errors in my math if there are any.

M

EDIT: When my next 11 arrive (coupons!) I'll be making $367/month.

Lucky the 'wrong' USB drivers are the ONLY USB drivers that will work on some of the hardware.

'All that time' and you still use the wrong USB drivers?  

 

Which is EXTREMELY likely less than if you didn't buy AM USBs

Actually yes I wasted way too much time on the silly AM USBs
So far for all my trouble I've probably made ~0.1271313318 BTC profit mining on AM USBs
Oh well - lucky I'm a dev and I've made more BTC from the other hardware I got to cover all the time I've spent on AM USB hardware ... and the time I've spent on the other hardware ...

Whatever dude.  I'm making a profit with mine.  Month by month, when the electric bill comes in, I have more than enough USD equivalent to pay for the electricity used.

M

I haven't done the math, but let's say BTC has to be at $25 USD or higher for me to make more than I do in electric costs.  You don't know for sure that BTC is going to continue to rise.  If you assume that, then yes, your argument holds true.  But if it doesn't, and drops to $50, I'm still making money.  And the rest of you who bought at $100, how much are you making?


As I said more than once, I don't care about the BTC return.  I care about the USD return.

M

So, kano, what you're really saying is mining BTC is a waste of time, so all the time you invested in writing cgminer is therefore a total waste of time?

But that doesn't even make sense.
If you have 10BTC, giving it to someone else for mining hardware only delays you getting it back ... and most likely getting back less than 10BTC, unless you get mining hardware that can generate 10BTC or more over time.

Also, there is no logic to say that they are earning their keep.
They are most likely losing BTC for you.

Sitting on 10BTC, but converting it at the same rate you are mining is the same as mining it.
The only difference, is that you are guaranteed to be able to convert 10BTC - whereas with AM hardware you are most likely (i.e. MOST people) will not get 10BTC back.

Anyone who paid 1.99 BTC for them will NEVER get that back mining PPS or equivalent.
That's not a maybe, that pretty much a certainty.
I got one on 13-May, BTC cost 0, that has so far made ~0.89BTC ... it will not make another 1.1BTC ... without any doubt.

Yes you could say there are some exceedingly unlikely scenarios that could produce 1.1BTC more PPS mining, but hell I could also then include unlikely things like being hit by a truck ensuring it wouldn't happen (actually I have once before been hit by a truck, my motorcycle lost that battle ) but that's just trying to make up unlikely reasons for making a bad choice buying AM hardware that is VERY unlikely to ever return their BTC cost.

We have a difference of opinion.  That's acceptable.

In retrospect, if I could predict the future, the only thing I would have done different is traded my BTC when it was worth $200USD+, and then bought the miners when BTC was < $100USD.  But I'm not able to predict the future.  

You gamble your way, I'll gamble mine.  I like seeing BTC going into USD, not the other way around.

M

EDIT: Also, if everyone acted the way you suggest, it wouldn't work for any of you.  Everyone can't buy BTC and sit on it and expect it to go up.  And folks do have to mine, otherwise your BTC is worthless.  I used my little BTC for the only ASICs I could afford.  Again, if I could have predicted the future, I would have pre-ordered one of the first round of Avalons. 

And what's going to pay the bills while I sit on my BTC?  I'm not an investor.  I don't have bucketloads of money sitting around that I can "invest" in things that'll some how turn more money.  (If I did, I wouldn't be buying BTC or ASICs.)  Like many others, I started with fiat for GPUs.  Eventually some of the output of that I turned into the only ASIC I could afford.  I'm still making a profit every month, even with the GPUs I still have (mind you, not mining BTC with them).  Yes, I could have sat on that BTC.  But I didn't.  I now have ASIC miners.  Will they come out ahead in the end?  Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  But that are generating money every month and earning their keep, more than sitting on BTC would.

Like every part of mining, it's a gamble.  If I wasn't already ahead of the game when I bought the ASICs, I might have a gave up.  But I didn't, and here I am.  USD is what matters to me, because I get USD every month to pay the bills.  Despite your claims to contrary, you can not predict the future.  I believe will make BTC (after electricity), and hence USD, every day from my ASICs for a very long time.  Sitting on BTC does none of that. 

Does that explain my position anymore?  For reference, I'm not screaming any of this any more than I did my prior post.

M

Read again
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3062054

But this time change the word 'bought' to 'mined'

Same result.

How many times do I have to say it?  I don't buy bitcoins.  I'm a miner.  I have miners, and I'm still making a profit.  How are you coming along?  USD value is what's important to me.  What part don't you understand?

M

Nice.  Where's the USD equivalent part?  That's the important part.

M

I'm not sure what you're point is?  Are you a fortune teller like Kano, and can predict the future?

Should we all give up mining because we might never recoup our cost in BTC?  You go first!

M

As I said in the cgminer thread when you said "you'll never get your BTC back".  Never is a long time.  These things appear to be durable.  With little electric usage, they might still be working in 10 years.

M

Yes, I get your point now.  I personally didn't buy BTC - the BTC I used as mined in the past, or bought with fiat obtained when I sold BTC during the bug Cypress/Greece bubble.

Yes, buying these things using fiat, expecting to get your money back is probably a poor idea.

But you are missing the actual point.
If you bought X BTC, to buy an AM device but instead simply kept the BTC, you would be ahead unless the device was able to generate more than X BTC - which for most people, it wont.
So for most people it is indeed a guaranteed loss of BTC - ignoring what other gains or losses you have converting that BTC back to fiat.
Whatever those other issues are, however, the point is you will most likely have ... less BTC ... and even worse, you will get that less BTC back over a long period of time.

For those who got 0.1BTC coupons - what did they pay for the other ones?

There's no need to guess and pretend it's going to do well, it's quite simple - make a spread sheet one per row with the dates of the difficulty change dates and the diff value.
Put 335 for the MH/s it will do
A calculated elapsed time (in seconds) column and then
BTC = MH/s * 10^6 / 2^32 * elapsed / Difficulty * 25
Then for each row you will see how much BTC it should have made (PPS Expected) for that row.
Add them up.
My date/times are only accurate to 5 blocks so can be late by up to 4 blocks (giving a slightly higher expected BTC)
The most interesting thing I see is the amount each diff change ...
Last diff was ~30%, next diff is going to be ~30% again ...

... also ... try my calculator page - with 20% and 30% ... and 1000 days
http://tradebtc.net/bitcalc.php

All this ROI talk assumes BTC will stay at $120.  As difficulty increases, I'm sure price will increase.  Just as it did when CPUs were becoming useless and GPUs were coming on strong. 

Look back in the forum, you'll see people saying GPUs will never ROI.  Yet, they did.  Even when I stated mining back in November 12 I made enough money (mined BTC converted to fiat) to pay for the GPUs, the machines the GPUs were in, and the electricity needed to run them.  THEN I sold the GPUs for basically the same as I paid for them.  That money I ploughed in to ASICs.

With my electricity effectively free, anything I mine - anything at all I can sell for fiat.

So, I'm really confused by the 'not making ROI' argument, because it's plain wrong.