Pages:
Author

Topic: CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s - page 98. (Read 231002 times)

legendary
Activity: 1065
Merit: 1077
AWESOME SAUCE! NOW I GET IT! Grin

...it's almost like I didn't say all of this half an hour ago in this very thread...

Sorry, I actually meant to reply to Puppet's post.  Clicked the wrong one.  I also had not read the whole, thread.  My bad.

We're right though Wink

legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
I think the market has been severely distorted by pre-sales.  Miners have been willing to pay more for gear because they have been paying for it in a time frame when it looked like a good investment - but by the time they actually get the gear, the ROI is nada.  Miners will soon  (out of necessity, if not common sense) come to realize that this preorder thing ain't working - and vendors will have to have gear in-hand to sell it.  THEN, miners will be able to make realistic decisions about what prices make sense.

Not really.  It may seem like presales is the problem, but its not. Let me explain:

The problem with presales is that you dont know how many TH have been sold and will be sold by the time you receive your unit, let alone by the time your expect to ROI. Those TH will influence future difficulty and thus your revenue,   so you cant accurately predict your ROI.

However, even even without presales, if you buy available hardware you still cant predict how many TH those companies are selling and will sell in the near future before you reach ROI, so you cant really predict your ROI either.

Well, in fact, you can predict your ROI in both cases. ITs quite simple; on average it will be negative.  Because of the dynamics of the market. Whenever there is an opportunity for mining profit, it will be taken by usually over optimistic miners. If there doesnt appear to be one, asic vendors will drop their prices to make sure there appears one again. Which ensures the previous miners will see their profit evaporate. Because if they had predicted these price drops correctly, they wouldnt have bought. This will happen over and over again until we reach the bottom of asic pricing.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
AWESOME SAUCE! NOW I GET IT! Grin

...it's almost like I didn't say all of this half an hour ago in this very thread...
legendary
Activity: 1065
Merit: 1077
Point is that its not vendors pricing thats to blame for the lack of profitability. LIke I said, they can put any price on it per TH they want, 5x lower than today, and it would still not be profitable because miners would just buy 5x more and still  over invest. Once they stop doing that, asic prices will drop further (further increasing difficulty). There is no solution, its inherent to the nature of the mining market and asics.

Great point! Wish I'd thought of it... Huh

I think the market has been severely distorted by pre-sales.  Miners have been willing to pay more for gear because they have been paying for it in a time frame when it looked like a good investment - but by the time they actually get the gear, the ROI is nada.  Miners will soon  (out of necessity, if not common sense) come to realize that this preorder thing ain't working - and vendors will have to have gear in-hand to sell it.  THEN, miners will be able to make realistic decisions about what prices make sense.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Point is that its not vendors pricing thats to blame for the lack of profitability. LIke I said, they can put any price on it per TH they want, 5x lower than today, and it would still not be profitable because miners would just buy 5x more and still  over invest. Once they stop doing that, asic prices will drop further (further increasing difficulty). There is no solution, its inherent to the nature of the mining market and asics.

Great point! Wish I'd thought of it... Huh
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
Point is that its not vendors pricing thats to blame for the lack of profitability. LIke I said, they can put any price on it per TH they want, 5x lower than today, and it would still not be profitable because miners would just buy 5x more and still  over invest. Once they stop doing that, asic prices will drop further (further increasing difficulty). There is no solution, its inherent to the nature of the mining market and asics.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
. I was concerned it would take years to get to reasonable prices,

Define reasonable price.

Reasonable price = potential for profit for more than just vendors. Reasonable expectation for a positive ROI. When people stop placing orders months in advance for products that are losing value at a rate of 2.5%/day(or go broke) this glut of orders will dry up. Of course many are still echoing the sentiment that only those early in company xyz's pre-order queue will make the big bux so it may take a while. Perhaps watching CoinTerra drop their prices by 62% since late August will help speed this process along.

Quote
No matter what price point per TH you pick, if miners overbuy it wont be profitable.

Agreed, but I won't be adding to the pile of stupid money being poured into vendors' wallets. There are too many entrants into the hardware peddling market now for vendors to maintain their ridiculous margins. Sure some misguided new to mining youngsters with more bux than sense will have to get burned, but the excesses will eventually be washed out.

Much of this BTW should have been clear with the original context you excluded in your quote.
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
. I was concerned it would take years to get to reasonable prices,

Define reasonable price.
No matter what price point per TH you pick, if miners overbuy it wont be profitable.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
Thanks for clarifying it. Well i guess, we just have to wait it. And people are too suspicious about cointerra because the chip specs they released (500Ghs per chip at $3/Ghs) is too good to be true.

People have been pointing out that mining equipment vendors' margins are enormous since forever. What looks too good to be true to some now, may well be perceived as overpriced within just a few months. Pre-order vaporware vendors have been riding this gravy train for months.

Hashfast sierra and coincraft are now under $8/Gh allegedly for November delivery, making knc look tardy now. VMC...-60% recently. Frankly, I'm glad this price war is moving so rapidly. I was concerned it would take years to get to reasonable prices, but all the new vendors are pushing pricing down with the quickness.
sr. member
Activity: 435
Merit: 250
Cointerra, can't you just upload a video showing the miner hashing away at 1Ths or 2THs ? That would be enough to prove every hater, wrong.

Daser, no one that has designed any silicon that is waiting for their silicon to come back from the fab can show it work til it arrives back, which is 2-3 months after tape-out.  Thats the way it works, and so knc, hashfast and cointerra are in the same boat.  Knc's silicon is due back end of this month, hshfasts is due end of october/ early nov, and cointerras is due in december.

Until the time that they can show it working they can show you the design specs, or pictures what it might look like, their bios and proof that theyre experts... or some other evidence that they know what theyre doing, but this is the way silicon works.  You design it first, then you send it off for physical design to a specialist company, then you tape out, and wait 60-100 days while the fab makes it, mask by mask - almost a day for each mask - then you get your chips back and if you did everything correctly, they should work!

All cointerra can do til they get their chips back is try and convince us that they know what theyre doing.  If they could show working silicon, today, they would be selling it.  Its the same with everyone who has taken a pre-order... They just dont have their silicon back yet.



Thanks for clarifying it. Well i guess, we just have to wait it. And people are too suspicious about cointerra because the chip specs they released (500Ghs per chip at $3/Ghs) is too good to be true.
hero member
Activity: 702
Merit: 500
Cointerra, can't you just upload a video showing the miner hashing away at 1Ths or 2THs ? That would be enough to prove every hater, wrong.

Daser, no one that has designed any silicon that is waiting for their silicon to come back from the fab can show it work til it arrives back, which is 2-3 months after tape-out.  Thats the way it works, and so knc, hashfast and cointerra are in the same boat.  Knc's silicon is due back end of this month, hshfasts is due end of october/ early nov, and cointerras is due in december.

Until the time that they can show it working they can show you the design specs, or pictures what it might look like, their bios and proof that theyre experts... or some other evidence that they know what theyre doing, but this is the way silicon works.  You design it first, then you send it off for physical design to a specialist company, then you tape out, and wait 60-100 days while the fab makes it, mask by mask - almost a day for each mask - then you get your chips back and if you did everything correctly, they should work!

All cointerra can do til they get their chips back is try and convince us that they know what theyre doing.  If they could show working silicon, today, they would be selling it.  Its the same with everyone who has taken a pre-order... They just dont have their silicon back yet.

sr. member
Activity: 435
Merit: 250
Cointerra, can't you just upload a video showing the miner hashing away at 1Ths or 2THs ? That would be enough to prove every hater, wrong.
sr. member
Activity: 471
Merit: 256

Thanks for posting the entire profile. His profile is not publicly viewable, unlike most. I simply assumed it was blank.

This is what I like to see. Due diligence and discussion both ways without trollers. A few more (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3140206) fishy/sketchy/odd things to be taken care of and I may start looking at them more seriously. It took me several months before I found KNC to be trustworthy enough to take that risk.

That said, I will never make a serious investment in anything without fraud protection from escrow, CC or Paypal.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
I too was skeptical, until I read the Anandtech interview (those guys don't post information hastily) and saw the youtube video confirming the involvement of Ravi and others.
This one?

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7246/the-rush-to-bitcoin-asics-ravi-iyengar-launches-cointerra

Yup! Recommended reading for all interested in the company.

Amazing things are created in press releases and on whiteboards all the time

Top notch vaporware team here
full member
Activity: 557
Merit: 101
I too was skeptical, until I read the Anandtech interview (those guys don't post information hastily) and saw the youtube video confirming the involvement of Ravi and others.
This one?

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7246/the-rush-to-bitcoin-asics-ravi-iyengar-launches-cointerra

Yup! Recommended reading for all interested in the company.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
We differ on the term scammer then

So you would define any company that would sell a product that works as advertised, is delivered on schedule, at a price agreed to by its customers as a scam, only because that product would not provide its customers with windfall profits?

Interesting. I guess that makes almost all companies a scam.

If you consider breaking even on your investment to be "windfall profits," there's no such thing as a scam Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
We differ on the term scammer then

So you would define any company that would sell a product that works as advertised, is delivered on schedule, at a price agreed to by its customers as a scam, only because that product would not provide its customers with windfall profits?

Interesting. I guess that makes almost all companies a scam.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
So you say buying a miner is throwing money away but also say cointerra is not a scam?

Indeed I am.

Quote
Then how can you win any bet if you are saying they are all a scam? 


I cant bet by ordering hardware, but I am willing to bet you or anyone else Cointerra will prove to be a real company with real products. Even if those products will end up losing money for most of its customers.

We differ on the term scammer then
legendary
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
So you say buying a miner is throwing money away but also say cointerra is not a scam?

Indeed I am.

Quote
Then how can you win any bet if you are saying they are all a scam? 


I cant bet by ordering hardware, but I am willing to bet you or anyone else Cointerra will prove to be a real company with real products. Even if those products will end up losing money for most of its customers.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
Yeah I bet on KNC by ordering from them

Buying asics (from any vendor)  isnt betting as much as throwing money away.
How about putting your money where your mouth is and bet cointerra is a scam?

So you say buying a miner is throwing money away but also say cointerra is not a scam?

Then how can you win any bet if you are saying they are all a scam? 
Pages:
Jump to: