I explained previously why I think a "fee market" is not compatible with "full" blocks. (i mean full, not nearly full)
Spare capacity is needed to deal with busy times in a consistent fee market, or it becomes a "hostage market".
And why plan to build up fees now, only to collapse fees with the "extra" capacity of segwit in a few months.
That is boom and bust.
Also Core want miners to allow segwit cheap fees?
So, we "need" more capacity, and you have a problem with Segwit providing it? Personally I'd prefer that there were no Segwit discount. As a user, I want fees to rise. But Core is doing what Classic supporters have long asked -- finding compromise due to the demand for cheaper fees.
I do have a bit of a problem with segwit, but that is not the issue here. It's the period from now untill segwit, (or not) that is relevant here.
On Bitcoin's present trajectory blocks will be really full before segwit. (as that's months away, if ever)
Or bitcoin adoption is kind of failing/slowing/deterred anyway?
Can that really be orderly or wanted by users.
Full blocks are not a problem. Bitcoin works, and will work, as intended. Any evidence for the bolded? The fact that BTCUSD price is UP 82% year over year suggests that adoption is not failing.
I am saying adoption is growing, not falling. (yet) Or there would not be a problem.
So, if blocks become full, (due to continued adoption) high fees will be needed to drive away users.
If high fees do not drive away users, and adoption continues, still everyone cannot fit into blocks, causing delayed and unpredictable tx's.
Delays will then drive away users.
Either fees or delays will drive away users. If the average tx rate goes over 1mb per 10 min, (due to continued adoption) something has got to give.
Unable to move my coins in any predictable time frame.
What = being held hostage? Being forced to pay 5 cents for a transaction? 10 cents? What exactly entitles you to virtually free transactions, anyway?
I do not want free tx's, I want standard(ish) fees I can plan for, as I have said earlier.
In a panic or busy time, if a rush is on, if the mempool grows rapidly, you will need to spend far more than 10 cents to have any hope of moving coins.
But worse, more likely your coins will be stuck in the mempool for days as panic goes on and your fee is over bid.
That is when you will be hostaged.
panic/loss of faith.
I don't see any of that. If anything, these supposed "horror stories" of stuck transactions are only becoming less prevalent. Fee estimation is no longer some abstract concept, and people are not as clueless as they used to be. You are repeating the same FUD that Gavin and Hearn repeated a year ago, yet none of it has come to fruition. I think you should stop repeating this fear mongering.
Time is bringing that day closer.
Were Gavin and Hearn a year too early. Should they have waited untill it was a problem?
I guess they were looking ahead to now, (and the next month or two) trying to plan. (foresight?)
(didn't satoshi foresee this kind of rapid consensus under pressure.?)
Quick consensus? Good luck. I sure as hell won't be installing Classic. I highly doubt BTCC, Bitfury and Kano will either.
That is in the balance. If tx's do gridlock, panic, HF.
Maybe not, but Core will be pushing people that way for sure.
What other option is there?
Wait for segwit. (which could be delayed, slow to adopt, etc.)
If a perma backlog occurs, Core are planless. Powerless.
Core will be handing it to Classic.
Maybe it will all be fine for Core.
Core supporters could stop using bitcoin for the next few months, that would help.
What situation? XT and Classic have been trying to force a hard fork for nearly a year. Bitcoin has functioned perfectly well during that entire time, and fees are still incredibly cheap. There is no crisis currently, nor is there one on the horizon. And these "OMG STUCK TRANSACTIONS" FUD is only getting less effective.
A full block backlog situation.
There is no crisis currently I agree.
But it is coming "at some point". For certain if adoption is continuing, or as a possibly due to a panic.
(i also suspect it could happen very quickly and permanently)
The question is will segwit arrive in time, (before gridlock) to avert panic/frustration.
(BTW, an increasing hash rate is finding "quicker" blocks at the moment, giving the effect of a larger block size - more tx's per second. that wont always be so. diff adjustment in 4 days may change that)
But Core could have had a plan B ready and publicised.
They don't need a "Plan B" because there are no viable alternatives to Core, nor is there any crisis. If Segwit can't achieve consensus, status quo prevails.
I think they do need a plan B. I think they should have foreseen this possibility.
Even if it was only a "possible" outcome.
It is certainly going to happen in time. segwit is now under pressure to deliver, even more.
A plan could have been in place. Simple.