Core have been derelict in their duties by showing little foresight around the looming full block situation, and now risk a massive backlash of supporters turning to classic. (as the only option to keep bitcoin "working")
The full block situation
================
Blocks are 70% full, on average.
This implies 30% "usable" blockspace still available for use/continued expansion. Not so.
Empty blocks do, and will continue to be produced no matter how full the mempool.
70% full "average" blocks size is very nearly 100% full "achievable" block size.
(anyone got any figures on what % empty blocks will likely be produced even when the mempool is full?)
Bitcoin use has been increasing, but now (in a week or two?) Bitcoin use can increase no more.
Full block problems
============
Forget spam attacks in this debate. (historically) If you pay standard fees you will be unaffected by low fee paying spam attacks.
Spam is not an issue here.
If blocks are full due to increased use, and nobody stops using Bitcoin, we will have gridlock. The mempool will grow and grow.
Up to now, blocks have not been full all the time, so miners could clear the mempool in quieter times.
(and looks like ALL miners are doing their best to fill blocks to just under 1mb ATM.)
There will simply be no opportunity for miners to clear the mempool when blocks are full if people don't stop using bitcoin.
If panic tx'ing ever set in, gridlock could easily turn to total overwhelm of network. (it will quickly turn into that anyway)
TX fees
=====
tx fees can only slow the mempool growth by stopping people using bitcoin.
If tx fees are not high enough to stop people from using bitcoin, then the mempool backlog will expand.
Fees should be set by efficiency. Efficient miners should profit, unefficient miners shouldn't. That is sustainable.
(A full fees market should not be needed yet as miners are subsidised by the block reward)
A fees market should not be set by ransom and blackmail. No room in blocks means unless you outbid a "forever" growing mempool you will not get in.
A fees market cannot fairly operate when blocks are at capacity.
Looking ahead
==========
When the above starts happening, in a week or two, It will very quickly become chaos.
Segwit will not be ready.
Core will be forced to introduce a panic fix.
Or panic will lead to a rapid classic fork.
Or both.
BTW
====
I don't support classic or core.
I support bitcoin.
I never did or will support classic.
I thought core could handle this situation, but I was wrong
Core are about to be shown as incompetent.
(unless driving away users really is part of their plan, even before LN exist.)
.
Desperate times will lead to desperate measures.
I don't want classic, but there will become no other choice for rapid consensus.
Core bring this situation on themselves.
With a little foresight Core could have given us 2mb couldn't they? To tide us over.
I fear it is too late to avert this situation now.
(it is certainly 11th hour, and no indication of a core rethink. Is there a contingency plan?)
