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Topic: [Cosmopolis] Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest - page 11. (Read 15609 times)

newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Bitcoin will test $400 floor in the coming days.

We have a 48% (rounded off) chance of retesting $266 +/- $100 margin of error within the next 2 weeks

I hear the sound of popping bubbles... I'm short with PANIC buy at 343.

I like PANIC  Grin

Nick.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Sure, tell it to thousands of Avalon and BFL customers.  BFL is about 5W/GH at the wall.

What a joke.  If that's how you want to attribute the average cost per coin then you should just go down to the bottom of the barrel and use ASICMiner's 130nm numbers.

The absolute majority of the network is not running solely on BFL or Avalon hardware, thus the majority of mined coins do not have cost base that you're claiming.  

Quote
BTW, your S1s will produce coins at $300/coin in about two months.

Difficulty is going to go up by a multiple of 3 over the next two months?   Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Nice. What are you using?
Not into mining myself and I don't think now's the time to try, but the more I look at it the more I'm tempted.

Multiple Bitmaintech S1's.  I wouldn't suggest now being the time to get involved, especially with the current state-of-affairs.  The Bitmaintech S1 is the only unit FS priced at a fixed BTC cost, however it's the least efficient of the current generation of hardware.  While you could potentially make your coin back buying one today, it's becoming less and less worth the risk.  All of the others are priced in USD, and as it stands you will likely not be able to mine more coins than you can purchase, dollar for dollar.

If you're looking into it, I'd wait until either a) a trend reversal occurs and the BTC/$ rate increases dramatically, or ASICMiner gets their 40nm out and in the hands of 3rd party developers.  Almost everything else is a losing bet given the way the units are priced and the current exchange rate.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000


It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

plug in, BFL minirig: 480GH/s, 2500W, 0.22 cents per kWh, electricity cost works out to about $13.20 for 0.04 btc. add another $4.5 for AC, or $17-18/day

You think 0.22/kWh is high?  The published rates in Canada (probably the same in US) are 0.06-0.12 but we are paying 0.22 to 0.25 after all taxes, transmission charges, service charges etc.

Every two weeks we get another 10-20% decrease in earnings, pushing the cost of mining per coin even higher.

Big farms might have better efficiency, lower power cost, but they have to include rent or depreciation, property taxes, other overhead of employees, insurance etc.  The cost per coin is around $300, IMHO.

If your cost with bitfuries or knc is lower, consider yourself lucky.

EDIT: updated the numbers

BFL? That explains your numbers...  The backbone of the hashing network is on 55nm or less.  Most predominantly KnC @ 28nm, Bitfury at 55nm, Bitmaintech @ 55nm, and Avalon @ 55nm.  Bitmine's A1 is getting pumped out of China's backdoor now as well which is at 28nm.  The worst of the bunch is at 2 J/GH and FWIW BFL's 65nm consumption is >6 J/GH.  So yes, 300$ per coin at current difficulty if the network was being run predominantly on BFL tech, which it isn't.  If you consider the increase in efficiency of modern gear over BFL's garbage then you'll end up at the ~$100 a coin noted by myself and others.



legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031


It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

I read some other miner saying $100 on a thread yesterday. Can't remember where though.

It may have been me, as my cost per coin is ~$103.  However, you may be recalling another user who also posted the cost per coin at $100 too.  Sure, some have higher costs, and others lower.  Even after all my time lurking through the speculation forum it still amazes me at the frequency that people pull shit out of their ass and present it as fact, especially when it's people who have been here over two years and should seemingly know better.

Nice. What are you using?
Not into mining myself and I don't think now's the time to try, but the more I look at it the more I'm tempted.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000


It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

I read some other miner saying $100 on a thread yesterday. Can't remember where though.

It may have been me, as my cost per coin is ~$103.  However, you may be recalling another user who also posted the cost per coin at $100 too.  Sure, some have higher costs, and others lower.  Even after all my time lurking through the speculation forum it still amazes me at the frequency that people pull shit out of their ass and present it as fact, especially when it's people who have been here over two years and should seemingly know better.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031


It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.

I read some other miner saying $100 on a thread yesterday. Can't remember where though.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
@OP My I have your wallet address for donation.

Cosmo doesn't share his address. Same reason he doesn't accept bets on his predictions. Because then you'd be able to follow the money and find out exactly how successful he's been.

Wtf, my address is in my profile

Blockchain: "No transactions found for this address, it has probably not been used on the network yet."
Sad
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
You better pray we don't go to $260.

If we end up below $300, a lot of big farms will continue to unload their existing profits just to keep
operating, or close their operations.   This would cause a drop to below $100 or lower. The losses (electric bill) will be to big to handle.  This will create fundamental changes, probably irreversible changes.
Think 2011 drop 25->2.5 and ebay ads for 50-100 GPUs for sale.  

The difficulty suppose to adjust accordingly, but all this takes time and this would be a "real test"
for the bitcoin experiment.  Basically, the (Chinese) traders and the market would kill bitcoin by setting the price below the operating costs and keeping it there for long enough to kill the network.

No mining = no transactions = game over.  not only for bitcoin, game over for all cryptos.

So be careful what you wish for.  You better hope $400 is the bottom.


That just isn't going to happen.
Most of the people on these boards have, what? A few hundred or thousand USD in bitcoin, maybe occasionally tens of thousands+? Cosmo has $20 his mom gave him for tidying his room.
The likes of Gavin Andressen have millions of their own and VC funding in bitcoin businesses. There's no way they'd let a few panicking speculators kill all that. They'll step in and stabilise the market, making a killing in the process at the panickers' expense.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000


It would work, except now, you are making 100 times less coins.  You go figure it out.
I'm telling you, ~$300 is the electricity cost of mining one coin.

Care to back that up?  I only ask because my anecdotal evidence says you're wrong.
legendary
Activity: 2646
Merit: 2793
Shitcoin Minimalist
There is a larger number of trolls every time

Piglets bleeding

Also newbie accounts accusing me of using sock puppet accounts  Cheesy



There are so many angry bagholders here.
full member
Activity: 532
Merit: 100
PrimeDAO - An Adoption Engine for Open Finance
There is a larger number of trolls every time

Piglets bleeding

Also newbie accounts accusing me of using sock puppet accounts  Cheesy

newbie
Activity: 30
Merit: 0
The difficulty suppose to adjust accordingly, but all this takes time and this would be a "real test"
for the bitcoin experiment.  Basically, the (Chinese) traders and the market would kill bitcoin by setting the price below the operating costs and keeping it there for long enough to kill the network.

No mining = no transactions = game over.  not only for bitcoin, game over for all cryptos.

So be careful what you wish for.  You better hope $400 is the bottom.


All the mining hardware that was profitable 6 months ago still exists, it didn't vanish and the price was much lower then while electricity was the same. Current hardware is even more power efficient. In other words if a functioning network could exist then, it can exist now, even if prices drop back to previous levels.
full member
Activity: 532
Merit: 100
PrimeDAO - An Adoption Engine for Open Finance
Cosmo.. I am going to start following your posts :O! :O!

What do you think will happen if we go below $260?  I am debating setting a buy at $280/300

It will not go below $266
full member
Activity: 532
Merit: 100
PrimeDAO - An Adoption Engine for Open Finance
@OP My I have your wallet address for donation.

Cosmo doesn't share his address. Same reason he doesn't accept bets on his predictions. Because then you'd be able to follow the money and find out exactly how successful he's been.

Wtf, my address is in my profile
legendary
Activity: 2646
Merit: 2793
Shitcoin Minimalist
So then all the small miners would become useful again, and Bitcoin can return to something properly decentralised.

I don't think so.  Small miners would be losing too if go below $300.
It would be easier to cover the loss with your own money, but how many miners would choose to
mine at a loss?  Large farms would react immediately, it is a big business after all.

But I guess the market will tell us very soon if we are going to $10K or $10.

PS. You want to kill the network, kill the price and the network will follow.
We need P2P exchanges now.  

If not enough people were willing to mine at a loss, difficulty would decrease til mining was profitable again. If bitcoin transactions were too slow, than perhaps one of the many altcoins with much faster transaction times and a decentralized mining system would become dominant.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Making money since I was in the womb! @emc2whale
$266 not going to happen!
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
So then all the small miners would become useful again, and Bitcoin can return to something properly decentralised.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1000
Cosmo.. I am going to start following your posts :O! :O!

What do you think will happen if we go below $260?  I am debating setting a buy at $280/300

You better pray we don't go to $260.

If we end up below $300, a lot of big farms will continue to unload their existing profits just to keep
operating, or close their operations.   This would cause a drop to below $100 or lower. The losses (electric bill) will be to big to handle.  This will create fundamental changes, probably irreversible changes.
Think 2011 drop 25->2.5 and ebay ads for 50-100 GPUs for sale.  

The difficulty suppose to adjust accordingly, but all this takes time and this would be a "real test"
for the bitcoin experiment.  Basically, the (Chinese) traders and the market would kill bitcoin by setting the price below the operating costs and keeping it there for long enough to kill the network.

No mining = no transactions = game over.  not only for bitcoin, game over for all cryptos.

So be careful what you wish for.  You better hope $400 is the bottom.



I do not want to see BTC drop below $400 lol!!
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1000
Cosmo.. I am going to start following your posts :O! :O!

What do you think will happen if we go below $260?  I am debating setting a buy at $280/300
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