Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 114. (Read 355110 times)
I am not confident that this c wave will play out as expected as we have broken the local down trend - looking for a better signal.
Great thread! Thank you for sharing your expertise!
thanks, have a great day trading.
How about a triangle?
A triangle would be a VERY shallow correction. we 90% expect greater than 0.382 correction, and in corrective waves deep corrections are most common. 0.618 would take us to 320ish, I am expecting at least 335.
Great thread! Thank you for sharing your expertise!
C wave forecast remains in tact. target cerca 330.
How about a triangle?
C wave forecast remains in tact. target cerca 330.
This is a short term forecast.
Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+
13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.
420 is not unreasonable, but for the moment I think that's looking too far ahead. Lets look for a wave B, deep retrace, 0.618, cerca 300. let the beast turn and buy. Targets will be clear at the end of C if it is an impulse (IV could be a triangle - in which case we just topped, unlikely)
.618 retrace on stamp is about 321. It would take 78%er to get us to 300. Personally I think that is a bit deep if we compare it to retraces on rallys off of other big drops - ie previous LL at 339.
I think a 50-61 fib retrace is more likely, especially with all the shorts out there that have already "sold" their coins.
But at this point it is all speculation.
The initial point of this post was to identify levels of confirmation of wave C termination. Today I am fairly confident on the smaller scale that wave C is not complete. Here is the current preferred count.
Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+
13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.
420 is not unreasonable, but for the moment I think that's looking too far ahead. Lets look for a wave B, deep retrace, 0.618, cerca 300. let the beast turn and buy. Targets will be clear at the end of C if it is an impulse (IV could be a triangle - in which case we just topped, unlikely)
Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+
13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.
very nice thread chessnut thanks for starting it
Thanks, I hope you find it useful in the coming weeks.
very nice thread chessnut thanks for starting it
Thanks a lot for sharing! Do you also use other tools like oscillators etc in your analysis?
Sure enough, that big mofo wall made the technical picture a little bit confused when it was there... but I agree on the bigger scale it doesn't matter
could we also be tracing out a bigger b wave right now before a final push higher? After such a massive move down I just can't believe we cannot even go above 350...!
Sure enough, that big mofo wall made the technical picture a little bit confused when it was there... but I agree on the bigger scale it doesn't matter
could we also be tracing out a bigger b wave right now before a final push higher? After such a massive move down I just can't believe we cannot even go above 350...!
I have to give you credit for this count, you received your C wave, although it changes the bigger picture here.
Remember that if we correct sharply here we should not try pick the bottom, rather wait for confirmation or a 270 retest.
we are on our way to 450+, and there are two likely ways we will get there.
A.
Impulsive a of IV or impulse i of greater cycle V (!)
B.
a severe correction at this stage is not wholly bullish but should be bought into, and sold at 450. It does imply that we will be retesting lows in a slow and painful manner in the coming months.
Hold tight onto your bitcoins.
A.
Impulsive a of IV or impulse i of greater cycle V (!)
B.
a severe correction at this stage is not wholly bullish but should be bought into, and sold at 450. It does imply that we will be retesting lows in a slow and painful manner in the coming months.
Hold tight onto your bitcoins.
Considering that the drop came from the 480$ level, even if this is just a dead cat bounce, it could have reached 380$ or a bit higher.
Bitstamp's current high is 395.6
Considering that the drop came from the 480$ level, even if this is just a dead cat bounce, it could have reached 380$ or a bit higher.
Makes sense, but I doubt it's the right one.
By your count, ~350 is the top of the retracement from the $275 bottom. I expect more from it, $360, $380, maybe more, based on volume mainly. What happens afterwards remains to be seen, although I'm also leaning towards another test of 2xx eventually.
Let's come back to it in a week
By your count, ~350 is the top of the retracement from the $275 bottom. I expect more from it, $360, $380, maybe more, based on volume mainly. What happens afterwards remains to be seen, although I'm also leaning towards another test of 2xx eventually.
Let's come back to it in a week
from an ew perspective, it makes so much sense. 360-380 could not be explained, passing into the territory of wave i. so far we have only unfolded in 3's, thats entirely what triangles are made of. wave iv's tend to be triangles, and reside in the territory of wave iv. Ill say no more, but definitely ill be watching over the week.
Welp. That took less than a week after all. ($370 top, so far.)
New main count in order?
P.S. Also, to separate myself from some of the more trollish posts in here: I don't question TA in general, or EW in particular. I was just skeptical about your count suggesting we'd top at around $350.
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