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Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 22. (Read 355104 times)

sr. member
Activity: 261
Merit: 250
October 28, 2015, 02:01:04 PM
David Alcindor's count doesn't make much sense tbh.

Could be an expanding B-wave triangle if we cross the previous $318 top.


full member
Activity: 150
Merit: 100
October 28, 2015, 01:15:29 PM
David Alcindor updated:



Here is the most BULLISH scenario I can come up with:

1 - First, it is nearly guaranted that we are in a prolong correction, hence the large, encompassing A-B-C pattern.

2 - Projection of such pattern (not in terms of Elliott Wave, but simply in terms of geometry), Wave-C projection off of Wave-B defines 363.66 as pan-ultimate top for this correction ... Near December 2015.

3 - The two most recent channels reflect R.N. Elliott channel methodology ... Hence, we just completed an Intermediate Wave-(3), whereas Intermediate Wave-(4) should be under development at this time.

4 - Based on same R. N. Elliott channel construction, the secondary channel (GREEN) points to a higher border validation at/near 363.66.

5 - Bad news is that from a total Wave, these broad sweeping correction will tend to return o the origin of Wave-A ... Interestingly, this fits the Predictive/Forecasting Model's outer most tolerable WL value = 152.72, defined this past SEP 2015.

So, as mentioned before, the only analyses are revealing at the H4 levels and above, offering a broad "bird'seye view" of what the Bitcoin trader will HAVE TO endure, not only in terms of adverse excursion if ever SHORT, but in counter-trend threat if taking a long position, especially near the current yet-to-define top.

Best,

David Alcindor

Sauce: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/vTWNd0Qk-BTCUSD-bitstamp-Stomped-Mulls-Decline-bitcoin-BTC-forex/
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
October 28, 2015, 12:40:10 PM
this is it.......it is wave 5. minimum local target 1880 for the ED but medium term tgt is still the wave 4 area.... 1760 or so. ED are sharp and fast to resolve.



Is the appropriate response to buy the dip?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
October 28, 2015, 12:20:21 PM
this is it.......it is wave 5. minimum local target 1880 for the ED but medium term tgt is still the wave 4 area.... 1760 or so. ED are sharp and fast to resolve.

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
October 28, 2015, 12:58:21 AM
probably an extension of sorts happening. will have to wait for more form before we can say what's really going on.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
October 27, 2015, 10:10:30 PM
Nice try guys, guess again.
full member
Activity: 239
Merit: 100
October 27, 2015, 09:55:51 PM
Any chance the impulse up could've been C as red count below (or alternatively 3, if the pictured A is somehow counted as an impulse)?



Personally a bit doubtful of that as the B looks too much like an impulse down, probably some species of truncated 5.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
October 27, 2015, 06:42:37 PM
despite the false breakdown through the primary trendline this is a more satisfying count having had a clear wave v termination.

legendary
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1027
Permabull Bitcoin Investor
October 26, 2015, 04:43:33 PM
Welcome back :-)

I missed you chessnut, hope you are doing well buddy Wink
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
October 26, 2015, 04:07:12 PM
Welcome back :-)

same here. good to have you back chessnut. We missed you Smiley
member
Activity: 111
Merit: 10
October 26, 2015, 03:43:38 PM
Welcome back :-)
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
October 26, 2015, 03:24:02 PM
This is a significant area for a short term reversal on the 4H, with ~268~ a fair target in any case as a iv wave area.



This impulse could be 1 or A which we could use to play the move on breakdown or better w2 form.

legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
October 25, 2015, 03:59:21 AM
Hi EWers

I love this thread and all the EW stuff.

Since Chessnut is laying low for a while, I'm inviting EWers who posted charts to drop their charts and conversation on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new

I haven't seen a solid EW thread around on speculation (maybe I'm not looking hard enough). Would like to see EW analysis. there is a need for one.

Come roost at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new
legendary
Activity: 2674
Merit: 1083
Legendary Escrow Service - Tip Jar in Profile
October 19, 2015, 06:16:20 AM
he declared bankruptcy.

That is not true. I spoke with chessnut lately he is doing fine. This speculation forum tired him out.

That seems correct to me. I saw him on friday on the tradewave forex chat. Guess he was busy exploiting the price moves of EURUSD. Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
October 18, 2015, 09:17:34 AM
My take on the current price movement. The first fib levels represent the extension of Wave (A) to estimate levels for Wave (C). The second scale represents the extension of Wave 1 of C to estimate the levels for Wave 5 of C. It's possible that Wave (C) will be topping near the $273 mark as the 1.618 extension of Wave (A), assuming my count is valid.

Thanks for reviving this thread

Q: How is this pattern different from a similar pattern in June/july?

recall




The pattern is slightly different but similar overall. We are looking at corrective patterns in both cases.

last time you said it was a 2, and it turned out not to be.

Podyx posted on Nights watch about your count being invalidated. Is it?
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
October 17, 2015, 12:30:58 AM
Here is a chart from David Alcindor asserting move up from low $200s as wave 4 correction

my thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new

sr. member
Activity: 261
Merit: 250
October 16, 2015, 05:21:54 PM
Updated chart from before with the latest price movements. You can also find it in the comments of the article I posted yesterday, BTCUSD Short Term Corrective Rally.

Quote
Update on the recent jump to $267 which is following the count in the OP as a Wave 3 of C, hitting the 3.618 extension of Wave 1. We should expect a short but sharp retrace before the last move up to ~$274 as the top of the entire corrective move. Stay tuned for more.



Sign me up for your thread!

Lol, just realised that my (A) and (B) should be placed instead of A and B in my chart, but that doesn't affect the count that is currently playing out. Will update over the weekend. Feel free to check my page but I'll post the charts on here as well. I'm still a novice though, so I do make mistakes. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
October 16, 2015, 04:30:24 PM
Updated chart from before with the latest price movements. You can also find it in the comments of the article I posted yesterday, BTCUSD Short Term Corrective Rally.

Quote
Update on the recent jump to $267 which is following the count in the OP as a Wave 3 of C, hitting the 3.618 extension of Wave 1. We should expect a short but sharp retrace before the last move up to ~$274 as the top of the entire corrective move. Stay tuned for more.



Sign me up for your thread!
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1001
October 16, 2015, 03:39:13 PM
Could we be on the upswing of the second shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern spanning most of 2015?

First shoulder peaked at about $300 in early March 2015.

Head peaked at about $312 in July 2015.

Expectation of peak of second shoulder at around $300 in November.
sr. member
Activity: 261
Merit: 250
October 16, 2015, 03:13:53 PM
Updated chart from before with the latest price movements. You can also find it in the comments of the article I posted yesterday, BTCUSD Short Term Corrective Rally.

Quote
Update on the recent jump to $267 which is following the count in the OP as a Wave 3 of C, hitting the 3.618 extension of Wave 1. We should expect a short but sharp retrace before the last move up to ~$274 as the top of the entire corrective move. Stay tuned for more.

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