I tried playing with Elliott Wave theory on LTCBTC and the medium term prospect looks considerably more bearish than Bitcoin. Still, a huge buying opportunity lies ahead for Litecoin. FWIW.
LTCBTC - Patience Pays $$$It is impossible, on the longer term, to count LTC/BTC. It's somewhat of a derivative that is dictated by the BTC/USD price and LTC/USD price. To an Elliott Waver, that chart looks corrective since it has so much overlap, too.
I don't see why it would be impossible for LTCBTC to follow a count. Since Litecoin, like all other major cryptocurrencies with large enough volumes, is inexorably tied to its big brother, it will follow a similar pattern and the LTCBTC trend should therefore be bound by the general EW rules.
I do agree, however, that because LTCBTC trades in much smaller volumes than LTCUSD or LTCCNY, the price won't necessarily follow the Fibonacci retracements and extensions (in the commentary of the article linked above, I did mention that the price could go lower than the 94% retracement). Still, it should follow the general rules of impulsive and corrective waves (5-3, a-b-c etc.).
I see what you're saying... It has 5 up and 3 down even though it has overlap, and due to the low volume (and depth(liquidity)), it has the tendency to overshoot easily, causing the overlaps. I feel that on shorter terms, it may be countable, but on that long term chart, it isn't. It's entire history looks more like a large range rather than any discernible trend. It tends to spike higher when LTC/USD out paces BTC/USD on gains. This may be because it has lower volume, but arbitrage should keep it in check from diverging too much from the difference between BTC and LTC fiat price. It's akin to XAUUSD rising when the Dollar drops against EUR and GBP. If LTC/USD rises with BTC (% wise), LTC/BTC should stay relatively flat or the arbitrage bots will fire into overdrive until the disparity is equalized.
The main point I'm making is that even if you can count some parts, the bigger picture is uncountable (following the three rules of EW) and therefore, unreliable due to the fact that LTC/BTC is technically a derivative as long as the leading crypto currencies remain priced in fiat as the primary factor of valuation. If eventually BTC (and LTC) uncouples from valuation in fiat, then the pure crypto markets will really shine and have a much higher efficiency, and by default, a more accurate forecast in the charts. Until that time, imo, it's not the best thing to base trades on.
