Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 75.

chessnut

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Quote from: podyx on November 28, 2014, 11:54:54 AM

2900 before december wow..

You still think there will be a dip down to 2260 from here?

Time is a tough factor to predict, I dont think it will come necessarily before December, but it could.

The very short term count has slightly changed, see here. I do think we need a greater retrace but not necessarily 2260. We might see some incredible strength here.

podyx

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2900 before december wow..

You still think there will be a dip down to 2260 from here?

chessnut

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What is happening here is critical and decisive. To me this is enough evidence to publish this chart. I am confident that we are heading to 3000 yuan +.

This is consistent with a wave III count and a double abc (abc-x-abc) count. This price action is not consistent with a wave V count.

LFC_Bitcoin

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3000 CNY?

When?

Hope so, I'll hold you to that.

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chessnut

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Quote from: chessnut on November 28, 2014, 01:40:12 AM

It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.

Yes, our faithful triangle count does it again.

podyx

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Update?

chessnut

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Podyx, Yes that is roughly the triangle I was referring to.

We are seeing a primary wave unfold and it has just topped out short term. expect a retrace from here over a few hours. This is very bullish, and likely the beginning of the next leg up. this could lead to the re test of 3000 yuan.

Quote from: madmat on November 28, 2014, 05:25:06 AM

You promised a chart. Please feed the awaiting learning traders. Grin

its 4.30 am Cry

here you go though Wink

bit late for the triangle however.

podyx

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Quote from: chessnut on November 28, 2014, 01:40:12 AM

It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.

where do you see this triangle?

You mean this?

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Quote from: chessnut on November 26, 2014, 08:00:22 PM

Quote from: podyx on November 26, 2014, 07:30:31 PM

Wow.. 50%
So what's your take on the current situation? I guess you're bearish?

Nope, I am bullish. This no longer fits a third wave description, so it is probably an abc correction of sorts. we could test higher highs from here.
[/quote]

Makes it up as he goes along.

Contradicts himself on an hourly basis.

Incredible.

madmat

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Quote from: chessnut on November 28, 2014, 01:40:12 AM

It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.

You promised a chart. Please feed the awaiting learning traders. Grin

chessnut

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It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.

chessnut

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Quote from: SkyValeey on November 27, 2014, 08:21:37 PM

OK. I'm dizzy about that the end of 4th wave is higher than top 1st wave.

In EW wave iv (and ii) is a corrective wave. a corrective wave is never impulsive (a correction is always a form of abc, a three wave move) often with highly overlapping internal fractals. This is why you are having trouble counting an impulse into wave iv of IV!

In the case where we retest 3000 yuan, that would be a double abc, where simply put an abc expands into a larger fractal of its self.

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OK. I'm dizzy about that the end of 4th wave is higher than top 1st wave.

BTW. You think we're in reverse head and shoulders pattern now?

(text is "if this is rev. head and sh.?")

chessnut

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Quote from: SkyValeey on November 27, 2014, 08:03:21 AM

@Chessnut

We are at the end of B wave after 1st wave of wave 5 (275$ as a start of wave 1) ?

If yes, end of wave 4 (2100cny) was lower than top of wave 1 (2500 cny)...

So rule "w4 low must be higher than top w1" was broken...

?

Hi SkyValeey,

Not sure what you mean, could you label a chart?

three things are possible: wave V ($270 retest) has begun from the high of 3000yuan, wave I has begun from 1950 yuan (wave II hit 2100 yuan), or wave B is completing a double zig zag to 3000 yuan +.

SkyValeey

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@Chessnut

We are at the end of B wave after 1st wave of wave 5 (275$ as a start of wave 1) ?

If yes, end of wave 4 (2100cny) was lower than top of wave 1 (2500 cny)...

So rule "w4 low must be higher than top w1" was broken...

?

Alonzo Ewing

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Looks to me like we're making a variant of a triangle formation which will take a couple of months to reach low volatility somewhere right around current prices. It should be a very bullish sign--suggesting the early stages of a new bull market.

chessnut

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Quote from: podyx on November 26, 2014, 07:30:31 PM

Wow.. 50%
So what's your take on the current situation? I guess you're bearish?

Nope, I am bullish. This no longer fits a third wave description, so it is probably an abc correction of sorts. we could test higher highs from here.

podyx

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Wow.. 50%
So what's your take on the current situation? I guess you're bearish?

chessnut

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Quote from: T-Y-R on November 26, 2014, 07:44:19 AM

Hehe, this coin is fcuking with you okes today!

Anyways, thanks for all the effort and sharing all of this, chessnut! I don't trade at all (anymore), but if I ever sell a large chunk based on a hint I get here, I'll send some love your way.

Yep, some days it sux!

Quote from: podyx on November 26, 2014, 01:00:03 PM

How likely is a $275 retest?

Imo, at this rate, 50% chance of $270 retest.

Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 75. (Read 355110 times)