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Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 75. (Read 355104 times)

legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 28, 2014, 01:02:35 PM
2900 before december wow..

You still think there will be a dip down to 2260 from here?

Time is a tough factor to predict, I dont think it will come necessarily before December, but it could.

The very short term count has slightly changed, see here. I do think we need a greater retrace but not necessarily 2260. We might see some incredible strength here.

legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 28, 2014, 12:54:54 PM
2900 before december wow..

You still think there will be a dip down to 2260 from here?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 28, 2014, 12:49:44 PM
What is happening here is critical and decisive. To me this is enough evidence to publish this chart. I am confident that we are heading to 3000 yuan +.

This is consistent with a wave III count and a double abc (abc-x-abc) count.  This price action is not consistent with a wave V count.  


legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
November 28, 2014, 12:46:34 PM
3000 CNY?

When?

Hope so, I'll hold you to that.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 28, 2014, 12:14:04 PM
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 28, 2014, 12:11:59 PM
It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.

Yes, our faithful triangle count does it again.

legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 28, 2014, 11:56:03 AM
Update?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 28, 2014, 11:50:01 AM
Podyx, Yes that is roughly the triangle I was referring to.

We are seeing a primary wave unfold and it has just topped out short term. expect a retrace from here over a few hours. This is very bullish, and likely the beginning of the next leg up. this could lead to the re test of 3000 yuan.





You promised a chart. Please feed the awaiting learning traders.  Grin

its 4.30 am  Cry here you go though  Wink bit late for the triangle however.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 28, 2014, 10:58:53 AM
It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.

where do you see this triangle?

You mean this?

legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
November 28, 2014, 07:48:46 AM
Wow.. 50%
So what's your take on the current situation? I guess you're bearish?

Nope, I am bullish. This no longer fits a third wave description, so it is probably an abc correction of sorts. we could test higher highs from here.
[/quote
]






Makes it up as he goes along.

Contradicts himself on an hourly basis.

Incredible.
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
November 28, 2014, 06:25:06 AM
It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.

You promised a chart. Please feed the awaiting learning traders.  Grin
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 28, 2014, 02:40:12 AM
It seems that the area of stagnation at the 2280 level was a triangle. Ive really never encountered a period in this market where I have seen so many triangles! its getting a bit cliché.

Triangles are terminal moves.... they always precede a reversal of one higher fractal. This has been very useful to us so far, in fact it has never failed us where I have identified a legit EW triangle (not simply a wedge)

A triangle here would be a wave b of an abc. we are now in wave c and probably approaching a medium term bottom. we should form a bottom above 2180 or so. Best not to try catch the knife here. I will look for a clear bottom or a clear reversal signal.

Chart to follow later.... just got home.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 28, 2014, 02:31:12 AM
OK. I'm dizzy about that the end of 4th wave is higher than top 1st wave.

In EW wave iv (and ii) is a corrective wave. a corrective wave is never impulsive (a correction is always a form of abc, a three wave move) often with highly overlapping internal fractals. This is why you are having trouble counting an impulse into wave iv of IV!

In the case where we retest 3000 yuan, that would be a double abc, where simply put an abc expands into a larger fractal of its self.

hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
November 27, 2014, 09:21:37 PM
OK. I'm dizzy about that the end of 4th wave is higher than top 1st wave.


BTW. You think we're in reverse head and shoulders pattern now?

(text is "if this is rev. head and sh.?")
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 27, 2014, 06:53:48 PM
@Chessnut

We are at the end of B wave after 1st wave of wave 5 (275$ as a start of wave 1) ?

If yes, end of wave 4 (2100cny) was lower than top of wave 1 (2500 cny)...

So rule "w4 low must be higher than top w1" was broken...

?

Hi SkyValeey,

Not sure what you mean, could you label a chart?

three things are possible: wave V ($270 retest) has begun from the high of 3000yuan, wave I has begun from 1950 yuan (wave II hit 2100 yuan), or wave B is completing a double zig zag to 3000 yuan +.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
November 27, 2014, 09:03:21 AM
@Chessnut

We are at the end of B wave after 1st wave of wave 5 (275$ as a start of wave 1) ?

If yes, end of wave 4 (2100cny) was lower than top of wave 1 (2500 cny)...

So rule "w4 low must be higher than top w1" was broken...

?
legendary
Activity: 1040
Merit: 1001
November 27, 2014, 12:46:45 AM
Looks to me like we're making a variant of a triangle formation which will take a couple of months to reach low volatility somewhere right around current prices.  It should be a very bullish sign--suggesting the early stages of a new bull market.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 26, 2014, 09:00:22 PM
Wow.. 50%
So what's your take on the current situation? I guess you're bearish?

Nope, I am bullish. This no longer fits a third wave description, so it is probably an abc correction of sorts. we could test higher highs from here.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 26, 2014, 08:30:31 PM
Wow.. 50%
So what's your take on the current situation? I guess you're bearish?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 26, 2014, 08:22:07 PM
Hehe, this coin is fcuking with you okes today!

Anyways, thanks for all the effort and sharing all of this, chessnut!  I don't trade at all (anymore), but if I ever sell a large chunk based on a hint I get here, I'll send some love your way.

Yep, some days it sux!

How likely is a $275 retest?

Imo, at this rate, 50% chance of $270 retest.
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