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Topic: Critical Levels - EW analysis - page 77. (Read 355110 times)

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
November 25, 2014, 06:18:13 PM
I am reading up on some elliot wave and I am curious, what is it exactly that tells you that wave C must happen??


An impulse wave never happens without a counterpart because impulses only occur in the direction of the trend. In this case the trend is down because we have an impulse down, this may be part of an ABC, or it may be a primary wave (very bearish).

Is it possible that this impulse is 'a' of an expanded flat, with the local top yesterday at $389 (Stamp) being the start of 'a', the high ($395) being the top of b and this impulse being c, thereby completing the correction and being a wave iv of C ?
Hypothetically speaking ... not saying it is, just asking if there is anything that rules this out.

EDIT : FWIW, I am not challenging your count (it's mostly what I see too, but I can't see a clear impulse up for v on Stamp), just asking if this is a valid alternative count, however probable
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 25, 2014, 06:05:49 PM
I am reading up on some elliot wave and I am curious, what is it exactly that tells you that wave C must happen??


An impulse wave never happens without a counterpart because impulses only occur in the direction of the trend. In this case the trend is down because we have an impulse down, this may be part of an ABC, or it may be a primary wave (very bearish).
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 25, 2014, 06:00:45 PM
I am reading up on some elliot wave and I am curious, what is it exactly that tells you that wave C must happen??
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 25, 2014, 05:02:02 PM
2233 as a .618 fibo seems to be reasonable in ~24/48h

Yes and if A=C then ~2170. That seems too low, so we might get a higher reaction first, but if we break 2290 I'd have to say that c has begun. It's looking weak.
hero member
Activity: 560
Merit: 500
November 25, 2014, 04:57:18 PM
2233 as a .618 fibo seems to be reasonable in ~24/48h
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 25, 2014, 04:57:03 PM
Alright, thanks man.

Hopefully we won't go sub 360
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 25, 2014, 04:55:44 PM
Oh... wow.
Well I guess I'm done if you're right Embarrassed

If you are lucky, you might get offered an exit point up higher, but if you want my advice, dont hold onto this one all the way to the bottom. You should try get out.

Are you certain that we will go down? I'm thinking of buying here, it'll go up a bit and if it comes back down I sell at my entry point

This was a bad strategy from the start. you need to have bigger targets to initiate a trade. Unfortunately for you we do have a substantial target to the downside now which should follow the impulse.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 25, 2014, 04:49:41 PM
Oh... wow.

Well I guess I'm done if you're right Embarrassed
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 25, 2014, 04:48:20 PM
I guess that this was the down move?
Back up?

No not at all, the wave down will be far more substantial. This could be just the beginning.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 25, 2014, 04:42:03 PM
I guess that this was the down move?
Back up?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 25, 2014, 02:35:41 PM
Are you certain that we will go down? I'm thinking of buying here, it'll go up a bit and if it comes back down I sell at my entry point

I am confident that we will see more down from a slightly higher point as illustrated.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 25, 2014, 02:19:31 PM
Are you certain that we will go down? I'm thinking of buying here, it'll go up a bit and if it comes back down I sell at my entry point
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 25, 2014, 02:11:07 PM
I don't think you will get straight answers. It is about elimination.

You are kinda right, a lot of the time we have to deal with ambiguity like that. Sometimes though, we are gifted clear cut counts that arent really debatable. I wish I could say with confidence exactly what is the count, but I cant. sorry!
legendary
Activity: 1540
Merit: 1003
alan watts is all you need
November 25, 2014, 02:06:31 PM

Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question Smiley

To me, that was a of B
Seems to be the case. nice to see some clarity. This count reduces the probability of hypothetical III but still bullish medium term (probably)



Could you please precise at what level we could be sure wave III has begun ?

If we reach 4000 any time soon, we are in wave III  Cheesy. otherwise I need to see form so I cant be more precise. ideally we dont need to know, just latch on long lower and look for the top.

Having said that my short term bias is bearish, this fiver has the potential to escalate into wave V.

I don't think you will get straight answers. It is about elimination.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 25, 2014, 02:03:36 PM
Going up after we touched 2260 then?

No cant be sure of the bottom yet. Will see when we get there.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 25, 2014, 02:01:33 PM

Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question Smiley

To me, that was a of B
Seems to be the case. nice to see some clarity. This count reduces the probability of hypothetical III but still bullish medium term (probably)



Could you please precise at what level we could be sure wave III has begun ?

If we reach 4000 any time soon, we are in wave III  Cheesy. otherwise I need to see form so I cant be more precise. ideally we dont need to know, just latch on long lower and look for the top.

Having said that my short term bias is bearish, this fiver has the potential to escalate into wave V.

Going up after we touched 2260 then?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
November 25, 2014, 01:50:00 PM

Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question Smiley

To me, that was a of B
Seems to be the case. nice to see some clarity. This count reduces the probability of hypothetical III but still bullish medium term (probably)



Could you please precise at what level we could be sure wave III has begun ?

If we reach 4000 any time soon, we are in wave III  Cheesy. otherwise I need to see form so I cant be more precise. ideally we dont need to know, just latch on long lower and look for the top.

Having said that my short term bias is bearish, this fiver has the potential to escalate into wave V.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
November 25, 2014, 01:31:03 PM
Time to buy? Cool

Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question Smiley

To me, that was a of B

What are you saying?
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
November 25, 2014, 01:28:59 PM
Time to buy? Cool

Do you see 3 clear waves down? serious question Smiley

To me, that was a of B
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
November 25, 2014, 11:21:13 AM
Time to buy? Cool

with a very decent chance the price will go way into thousands its always good to buy and hold, only trade with a fraction of your holdings  Smiley
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