Topic: Crude Oil drops below $100 (Read 1588 times)

The poor people are not secluded when it comes to scarcity of oil and gas. The rich too get affected. Although they may not have it as bad as the poor who can barely afford it, still, they might have to queue up to get the quantity they want.
With this oil and gas inflation and the price drop as minimal as it is, it is no wonder other alternatives to suit the power/energy demand are being developed and those like batteries, are being upgraded to be optimum and efficient do a duration before charge. If the prices have dropped  below $100 now, perhaps we would enter next year, 2023 with hopes of the prices being lower and steadily available for consumption, as well as other forms of energy being deviled into too.

The issue is that there's absolutely no balance anymore. Oil prices are extremely volatile and cause gas prices to change on a weekly or even daily basis. Predictions are speculating an increase in oil prices, even surpassing $100 per barrel. I'm getting a feeling that 2023 will be way worse than 2022. On the other hand, CNG has plummeted, marking a 11% decrease just within 24 hours, probably due to the snow storm. I didn't find much relevant information justifying this crash.

Bubud is short, just facts, just numbers:
1. Natural Gas Futures - Jan. '23(MNGc1) = 380.60
-48.00 (-11.20%)

2. Graph, in dynamics for 6 months



3. Link where you can regularly monitor the gas market
https://ru.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas?cid=49787

Brent is now trading at $84, while the Urals is also being purchased at >$50 per barrel levels. OPEC may not be happy with these levels, as they want a minimum of $100 per barrel. I expect more production cuts from Saudi Arabia and UAE, unless there is a drastic reduction in the Russian output. American shale oil production has remained more or less flat. Once the consumption in China picks up, I expect Brent to trade at $100 to $120 per barrel. LNG prices in 2023 will depend a lot on how severe the winter is in Europe this time.

Oil and gas price has increased here a lot since the beginning of the war. It's still the same as it was then. Not much supply from Russia, which maybe the main reason here. I don't really care much, though. People will buy it despite its price. Only the poor will suffer in this case.
Don't know if we will even see the price drop in a few years. Still processing what will happen next.

Russia is willing to sell for as low as 20 dollars per barrel and it looks like the sanctions isn't affecting them because some other countries that are thier allies can go for it at a cheaper rate this is where the importance of the crypto currency comes into play....

A new, to be honest, very unexpected for me, round of the Covid-19 epidemic in China will now again affect the volume of purchases of Russian oil, the main buyer of which has now become India and China.
Why India and China? There are several reasons:
- for some "money does not smell"
- Russia has nowhere to put surplus oil, and China and India are cruelly dumping Russian oil, forcing Russia to sell its oil to India and China with huge discounts (40-50%).
And now China has problems that again, with a high probability, will lead to a drop in demand for oil, with huge reserves of oil purchased earlier from Russia.
Moreover, a new round of the epidemic may become the impetus that will launch destructive processes in the Chinese economy, which already has big problems.

PS In 24 hours, natural gas futures collapsed in price by about 18%

This shouldn't be new again. It is something that we should expect to happen one day as most oil producing countries normally rely on this for their economy growth. And this will definitely be affected as more oil producing countries were discovered. It is preferable for country to have an alternative source of generating money so that their country's economy won't be affected as price of fuel decreases.

It's still 50% that has increased in our country based on my own tracking pre-pandemic. It's thanks to one law in our country where the government can't control the price of it against the oil companies that are importing and doing it on their own refinery.
Still, I'm thankful that I've seen the drop from the highest and that's why it's relieving yet, I want to see to go it back from the price where it's been before but, it's unlikely to be there again.

Oil price have reached an average range than completely down market. Often interesting incidents happening around. All around the world, Major of the countries are experiencing the worse economic situation. Oil market plays a vital role, and the same keeps specific countries undisturbed from their economic growth.

For now the problem have arisen out of the Ukraine - Russia war. This have to settle down, but things are at its worst. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have visited American President Joe Biden and made some discussion. This will once again keep Russia on pressure. On the other side China is once again facing hard days out of covid-19. So, the economy correction won't happen for now.

Oil prices are very volatile.  

However, there is a certain average oil price and there is a tendency to return to this average price.  It is less than $100 (even after adjusting for US dollar inflation).  The world economy is currently in a recession.  This circumstance does not contribute to the growth of crude oil prices.  

At the same time, the sanctions imposed on Russia have a double effect....

On the one hand, the supply of oil in the world is declining, on the other hand, Russia is forced to sell its oil at a discount.  which leads to dumping and contributes to lower prices.

Well, it was fun while it lasted. Crude oil is on the rise again and is expected to average $100 per barrel in 2023. WTI is already at $80 per barrel, and Brent oil is at $84 per barrel, an approximate 10% increase compared to the recent year low after the war. A few days before the entry of 2023, the future already looks unpleasant, with inflation expected to rise even further, up to an extra 5% of what it currently is.

In the meantime, Europe is accusing the USA of profiting from the war by selling CNG even up to X3 to X4 its price since, after the imposed sanctions against Russia, the USA became one of the main importers.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/100-Oil-To-Return-In-2023.html

Today, 12/12/2022, we should say "WERE the largest LNG suppliers to the EU" Come back to reality?!
Most of the gas supplies to the EU from the terrorist country went through gas pipelines. 2 Russians blew themselves up, 1 on the territory of Ukraine, and we are trying to save it, because. we have obligations to the EU to ensure the pumping of gas.
There is also the South Stream, which will now reduce the volume of Russian gas pumped.


About LNG - well, would you at least read what reality looks like, or do you hope that they will just believe you?

Here is a picture of the LNG market (in million tons, 2021):
Qatar - 104.8;
Australia - 91.8;
Malaysia - 33.0;
USA - 28.4;
Nigeria - 27.8;
Russia - 24.9;
Indonesia - 20.8;
Trinidad and Tobago - 16.8;

Russia's share is about 7% Do you want me to show you where Russia sells LNG and how much? In the EU, Gazprom's subsidiary, Novatek, sells it, it sells it to France, Spain and the Netherlands. Do you know how much of the total volume produced in Russia? About 8% of the total European volume of LNG! Leader you say?!
Yes, I note that in the first half of 2022, indeed, the volume of EU LNG purchases from Russia increased by 40%, but this was a one-time surge caused by gas terror from Russia (the cessation of pipeline gas supplies in fulfillment of contractual obligations), and the need to fill gas storage for the winter. That's it, Russia will not have such a volume of purchases more, moreover, the volume of purchases from Russia will now be purposefully reduced to 0!

Oil plays an important role for the economy, almost all industrial countries really need oil for the production process, many countries are very dependent on oil so they have to import, and of course when oil prices drop below $ 100 it will make many changes.

You are right Russia isn't alone with this but as far as I know, there's also India, Europe, and last but not the least Dubai. Dubai must be the largest of them all and Russia can go next to it. Before the talks about the recession, people are already budgeting and looking for alternatives to continue living without depending on oil because its prices were very expensive last time during the Russian-Ukraine war.

This change have affected the oil suppliers but they shouldn't worry because this will only be temporary. Once the recessions are over and other crisis are gone. People will have more budget and they will probably start availing oils again.

Whether we like it or not, Russia is one of the largest suppliers of oil and CNG in Europe. It is certainly not a meaningless economy. The sanctions were a mere attempt to hurt Russia, and while it did affect them (a 4% loss in GDP), they weren't as affected as Europe anticipated. I'd also like to point out that barrel prices had started soaring even before the war started, somewhere between August and October. I'm not claiming that oil didn't skyrocket during the war, but the start had already been made. Fortunately, barrel prices have declined in the past few weeks; let's see how long it lasts.

For countries that sell oil of course this is good because it can lower prices, especially since the last 5 years oil prices have always gone up and once my country announced that the target price for oil was $125 at the beginning of the year, and now it has dropped almost 25% and hopefully there will be a price reduction oil immediately.

I absolutely agree with you - Russia and Russian oil are essentially an empty place in the global economy! They really are trying to prove the opposite, but not very skillfully The only problem is that in the second half of the 20th century, the Kremlin managed (bribery, blackmail, ...) to plant three key European economies on the oil and gas needle. Germany, France, Italy.

And it was after the unleashing of a terrorist war against Ukraine (whether you like this word or not - this is precisely terrorism), Russia received sanctions from the West! Am I saying something wrong in the chronology?
In the first years since 2014, the sanctions did not have a particularly strong impact on the economy of this regional hydrocarbon supplier. But after March 2022, when the EU and the whole world were shocked by the actions of Russia, serious and weighty sanctions were already introduced against them. And in 2022, since the summer (although the first steps were taken earlier, read about stopping gas supplies to the EU), Russia also engaged in economic terrorism against the EU, violating agreements, and openly declaring that they will continue to violate their obligations and terrorize economy, especially Germany! Did I say something wrong? Something distorted in terms of meaning?

It was these events that triggered the rise in oil and gas prices. Or not so?

I would like to let you know that Russia is not the only oil exporter in the world and it is not the largest oil exporter either. The decline in oil prices was due to a reduction in world consumption due to recession fears, as well as consumer demand not being as strong as in previous years.
Falling oil prices will affect all oil exporting countries, not just Russia and one of the people who doesn't like this is probably OPEC+, but the beneficiaries will be the consumers. 

This topic is only about the price of oil, not about the war between Russia and Ukraine, hope you are awake enough to discuss, do not bring the spirit of terrorism into each comment.

In anticipation of the introduction of new restrictions on oil from the country of an international terrorist, the oil (and gas, by the way) market reacted ... with a fall in prices.
Dynamics of prices for the main oil that the terrorist country sells by tankers, brand Urals:
01/12/2022 - 69.67
....
09/12/2022 - 54.91
10/12/2022 - 52.72

At the same time, do not forget that this is the spot price. So - in contracts, this is another minus 20-30%. But that's not all ! "Friends of Russia" China and India, expectedly "have Russia" in their favor, forcing Russia to sell to China and India at a discount of about 50%. After the embargo is introduced, I am sure the level of "friendly discount" that China and India will "friendly ask Russia" by taking it by the throat will be even higher

Oh yes, and about gas
Natural Gas Futures - Dec. '22 (MNGc1)
01/08/2022 - 733.59
....
09/12/2022 - 509.60