Crude Oil drops below $100 - page 4.

Maidak

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Quote from: Sithara007 on October 08, 2022, 08:10:20 AM

Excellent new coming in. Brent crude is inching towards three digit mark. The last time I checked, it was trading at $97.92 per barrel. The price rally resulted from two developments - 1. the decision by OPEC+ to implement a massive cut of 2 million barrels per day, and 2. the bombing of Kerch bridge that connects Crimea to mainland Russia. And here in India, we are being hit by a double whammy. The local currency (Indian Rupee) has gone down by more than 5% this week and the exchange rate now stands at 1$ = ₹ 82.83.

These are hot news in the past 2 days but in my opinion the information that made oil prices rise again is because OPEC + decided to reduce 2 million barrels of oil / day, this is a very large number, while last month they also cut 100,000 barrels of oil per day. With this decision, it can be seen that the OPEC group wants to maintain high oil prices and this will benefit Russia, Russia is also a member of OPEC +, this is considered a failure of the US government. The world energy situation has not cooled down, there will be many changes affecting the whole world. Today's attack on the Crimean bridge will make the conflict unlikely to end anytime soon.

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Excellent new coming in. Brent crude is inching towards three digit mark. The last time I checked, it was trading at $97.92 per barrel. The price rally resulted from two developments - 1. the decision by OPEC+ to implement a massive cut of 2 million barrels per day, and 2. the bombing of Kerch bridge that connects Crimea to mainland Russia. And here in India, we are being hit by a double whammy. The local currency (Indian Rupee) has gone down by more than 5% this week and the exchange rate now stands at 1$ = ₹ 82.83.

Hydrogen

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For US markets, an infusion of crude oil from the (SPR) strategic petroleum reserve was the only thing stabilizing gasoline prices and dwindling supply. Unfortunately, they recently hit a regulatory limit on how much crude they can pull from the SPR. Which means that oil prices are definitely headed back up, as supply declines.

It could be a good idea to hustle and seek alternatives to crude oil and gasoline. As there is no guarantee that prices will stabilize anytime soon.

Global markets and trade could be in jeopardy. At a certain tipping price, it becomes unfeasible to ship goods over long distances. Considering how reliant many nations have become upon imports from offshore sources. A transition back to local sources of supply could be difficult, but entirely necessary.

In terms of food, if it isn't grown locally. It could become unavailable. Rising oil prices and cost of shipping could potentially break any supply chain that relies on oil. I hope people recognize what this means and prepare accordingly.

Ultegra134

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Brace yourselves for massive price increases in fuel. Brent crude oil has surpassed $98.5/barrel while WTI is just over $92.5/barrel, compared to $82.6 and $76.6, respectively, a little over a week ago. That's a significant increase in oil prices, while at least here in Greece, we never saw the corresponding decrease at fuel pumps. However, prices have already started increasing at gas stations. This situation is not only tiring but also depressing. There is no longer any stability in life; everything is rapidly shifting. You can no longer make any plans for the future and every asset has become way too volatile, from commodities to cryptocurrencies and stocks. Only real estate is holding up, but that doesn't help the average Joe who's renting.

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 16, 2022, 10:58:18 PM

Quote from: Ultegra134 on August 16, 2022, 03:50:48 PM

Brent Crude Oil dropped below $92 today, while WTI Crude Oil at $86. However, for obvious speculation reasons, prices at the pumps won't change in the next few days, especially now that demand is increased due to August vacations. I'm really hoping that the oil prices will stay at least below $90/barrel, but I have serious doubts whether such price can be maintained. Despite the falling gas prices, inflation is still rocking high, with no intention of slowing down.

As long as it remains above $80 per barrel, oil importing nations will be under a lot of pressure. Here in India, it is like a double whammy. Indian Rupee has gone down against the USD by as much as 5% during the last 12 months. This further adds to the burden for common people. A lot of the commercial vehicle owners had converted to CNG, and now CNG here costs more than diesel. And to further exacerbate the issues, GCC nations (except Iraq) are selling their crude at a considerable premium. The EU nations are ready to pay more for Gulf oil, so the prices have gone up.

You never fail to surprise

The price of Urals oil at the auction fell below $70, this is the spot price, and you are all about "oil costs at least $80"

Understand that the oil market is a very specific topic. The spot price means that you will be sold right now and right there on the stock exchange at $69 per barrel. And for example, large buyers also receive discounts, and this is not 1-3-5%, but 10-20-50%. By the way, India and China are buying out the oil that has become unnecessary from a terrorist country, at a price .... already in the range of $ 33-35 per barrel! So I agree with your early persistent argument that "India does not buy oil from Russia for $40."

And most importantly, this is just the beginning!

PS By the way! Many thanks to India, for the fact that it has reduced the purchase of oil from the country of the world terrorist by 40%, and Indian banks refuse to work with banks from the same country!

STT

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Alot of the price is speculation and will vary from that, you have a higher and lower boundary. All I see right now is us hitting that lower boundary, I dont think its seriously restricted by excessive supply or lower demand globally.
The price today as we begin Thurs trading in Japan is just the same kind of pricing as seen on Monday though the decline then was sharper, now its just negative churn as price action repeats and fails to take back higher prices.
At the same time as Oil apparently pulls back we are seeing Natural gas prices move to maybe double what was true a year ago in some countries. I dont think energy is going to fall in just one particular type as usage is generally universal via electricity production or similar business and national usage.

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 16, 2022, 10:58:18 PM

As long as it remains above $80 per barrel, oil importing nations will be under a lot of pressure. Here in India, it is like a double whammy. Indian Rupee has gone down against the USD by as much as 5% during the last 12 months. This further adds to the burden for common people. A lot of the commercial vehicle owners had converted to CNG, and now CNG here costs more than diesel. And to further exacerbate the issues, GCC nations (except Iraq) are selling their crude at a considerable premium. The EU nations are ready to pay more for Gulf oil, so the prices have gone up.

As long as the supply/demand mechanism stands the way it is, we are going to see richer nations end up increasing the price because there isn't enough supply but a lot of demand. This will result with nations like ours end up not getting it because it is too expensive, I mean we still do buy it because w have to, but at a price that we can't afford and that causes a lot of trouble for all of our citizens.

There isn't a way out of this, we just need to make sure that we need oil a lot less, because it is not going to get super cheap, it is going to be terribly problematic for all of us. Just switch to electric on everything, even planes if we can invent it, because oil will never be a solution, it will always be the trouble.

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I think this is because the economy is getting more and more difficult, which makes the demand for crude oil decrease, the global recession has caused many countries to go into recession and the industries that use crude oil also decline, causing prices to fall.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on August 16, 2022, 03:50:48 PM

Brent Crude Oil dropped below $92 today, while WTI Crude Oil at $86. However, for obvious speculation reasons, prices at the pumps won't change in the next few days, especially now that demand is increased due to August vacations. I'm really hoping that the oil prices will stay at least below $90/barrel, but I have serious doubts whether such price can be maintained. Despite the falling gas prices, inflation is still rocking high, with no intention of slowing down.

As long as it remains above $80 per barrel, oil importing nations will be under a lot of pressure. Here in India, it is like a double whammy. Indian Rupee has gone down against the USD by as much as 5% during the last 12 months. This further adds to the burden for common people. A lot of the commercial vehicle owners had converted to CNG, and now CNG here costs more than diesel. And to further exacerbate the issues, GCC nations (except Iraq) are selling their crude at a considerable premium. The EU nations are ready to pay more for Gulf oil, so the prices have gone up.

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Quote from: Frankolala on August 04, 2022, 10:05:40 AM

The price of crude oil has dropped down due to the fear of recession in the world. In my country petroleum and gasoline price still remains the same because our government is looting from the crude oils funds. My country has never reduced the price of petroleum product of gasoline instead they always increase the price time to time for their own benefit.
Crude oil is my country major export commodity, with the declination in crude oil price this might lead to more inflation and hardship in the country.

In actual sense the price of crude is not suppose to drop everything time in the market indecencies that, crude oil comprises many products we use for manufacturing of different kinds of things that we use in the world. Both machine and any other bye products.

Ultegra134

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Brent Crude Oil dropped below $92 today, while WTI Crude Oil at $86. However, for obvious speculation reasons, prices at the pumps won't change in the next few days, especially now that demand is increased due to August vacations. I'm really hoping that the oil prices will stay at least below $90/barrel, but I have serious doubts whether such price can be maintained. Despite the falling gas prices, inflation is still rocking high, with no intention of slowing down.

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Quote from: Lubang Bawah on August 14, 2022, 12:39:42 AM

This is unique when a conflict occurs but the price of tuuru oil is below $ 100, hopefully this can reduce the burden of inflation that occurs a lot in the country and make the economy recover soon, the presence of electric vehicles can certainly be a good solution to reduce oil consumption so that oil needs are not too significant.

I have seen the rollback in fuel in my area, which is a good thing to all vehicle owners as well as commuters.
In my area alone, the use of electric bicycles are becoming rampant also, which I believe is a good thing.
No pollution coming out from bicycles and pretty cheap even if you charge it as compared to the per liter of gasoline consumption.
We need to find alternatives also so as not to rely from the crude oil coming from Russia.

Lubang Bawah

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This is unique when a conflict occurs but the price of tuuru oil is below $ 100, hopefully this can reduce the burden of inflation that occurs a lot in the country and make the economy recover soon, the presence of electric vehicles can certainly be a good solution to reduce oil consumption so that oil needs are not too significant.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on August 03, 2022, 03:50:49 PM

~snip~
Have you seen any significant drop in gas prices in your area? Will oil drop even further, despite the ongoing war?

Well, absolutely not my government just allowed the oil company to increase their product prices and they did that yesterday Tongue

. Maybe since the company bought their crude when the price is higher than 100$ so they will use that price as they decide the product prices in a few months.

STT

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Oil and commodities generally are going to keep outperforming but that doesnt mean it does so in the next rolling year exactly just overall I think we see higher return from oil or similar energy demand then plain currency will return. Certainly in this decade, since I have to pay for energy I dont see a good reason not to be involved; others might like to invest in solar panels and remove themselves from reliance on the world market some. Last I saw sentiment has become overly bearish on Oil hence we could have a short term low and a rise back to 110 or so before larger moves come in to alter that into year end.

DrBeer

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And oil kept falling and falling in price!

What is surprising, just "entertaining analytics": the lower the price of oil, the quieter the voices of Russian propaganda that "without oil and gas from Russia, everyone will freeze, their economies will collapse, and only we will prosper!"

In addition to the fact that the price of oil is falling, there is nowhere to put it - and you have to sell at the cost level .... So that's not all - since July 2022, you have to stupidly burn gas, heating the air on an industrial scale! This is me about the "greatest country in the world" (well, that's how they modestly call themselves

)

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on August 07, 2022, 10:41:33 AM

Quote from: Hispo on August 05, 2022, 02:33:08 PM

-snip-

...By the time of mid-term elections, their reserves will be almost empty.

In my opinion, it would be kind of a reckless decision to allow those strategic reserves to go that low, specially during these times of energy uncertain, unless Biden's administration is planning to step up national drilling and straction widely in order to refill those reserves, since we all know how the international prices would react if USA decided to import all that oil to replenish...

I wonder if the Green Energy plan for USA has anything to do with these choices, as I said, all this sounds more political than economical.

$anounimus$

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I think it's just one more data point suggesting that we may be in for some pretty turbulent times down the road. However, it's also important to keep things in perspective and realize that dropping oil prices are great news for American consumers. Whether or not those savings end up being passed on to consumers ultimately depends on the power of competition among gas stations—but this is a topic for another day.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: Hispo on August 05, 2022, 02:33:08 PM

~~~
According to that graph, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of USA are at the levels of 1986!
So the scenario you explained may be indeed possible depending on how fast the government wants to replenish their SPR and whether they plan to do it with foreign or national production.

This seems to be quite a political move looking foward to November rather than part of a long term plan to relieve common citizens from high energy prices...

From what I heard, the reserves are down to 400 million barrels. By the time of mid-term elections, their reserves will be almost empty. But then they need to refill these reserves at some point. That is going to be problematic. Because by then the purchase price will be much higher than the price at which they are selling now. And the ground situation hasn't changed much within the United States. Democrats are still trailing the GOP in many of the key races, and hypothetical polls show Biden trailing Trump by 3-4 points.

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Quote from: Fortify on August 03, 2022, 04:23:21 PM

There's a common saying when it comes to gas prices, the price goes up like a rocket and floats slowly down like a feather. There is actually a strong correlation between oil prices hitting record highs and a recession following shortly after, but there is a lot going on around the world right now so it's hard to gauge what will happen.

The correlation between oil prices and recessions is broken here, because of the oil prices falling down.

That is to say, we are still in a recession, but it's oil supply/demand that's acting crazy right now.

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