Remember what happened last time when oil was headed downwards? During 2008? Was the start of the recession. Back then we had good employment numbers like today and very quickly it went downhill. So maybe this is a signal its the start of the next crash.
We got CPI numbers out next week and most likely they are hinting at 8.7%. Its hard to say what it will be. I can see the lower gas prices having an effect however will it be enough to lower inflation? That is hard to predict. Everything is still expensive everywhere. Shortage of workers and hourly wages are up. Also GDP is negative. So things are not looking too bright at the moment.
Topic: Crude Oil drops below $100 - page 5. (Read 1242 times)
since Russian oil imports are yet to be replaced...
USA and Europe are working on it, for example, here in Venezuela there have been movements these last months to ease some sanctions which would allow us to export Oil to Europe, however, our production is so low at the time being that we are not a reliable option at the moment, not without foreign capital pouring in.
Oil prices in general will be volatile for the next year or so. The war, in general, has defected it, but also Europe urgency to move towards renewable green energy will leave the oil prices will be all over the place. Especially since there is a strong incentive to be less gas dependent, and that switch takes time, it might be some time before we see oil stable.
Things are really going sour and we don't have any option than to move along. The inflation is really having so much effect on food stuffs and other households necessity in my region. The price of gas is going high everyday and there is nothing we can do than to strive and meet up with bills accumulating everyday. The price is gases had increases including cooking gas making food to become more expensive than usual. We keep moving along this hard time that things are becoming expensive everyday. 
Crude oil prices are always cyclic so no surprise here, won't be surprised to see them drop even lower. However, I believe the sustainability of price drop and subsequent stabilization will be more known by winter.
I think it will not drop lower anymore. There was a price drop in our country as well but the sad part is there was no price drop in the prices of main essential goods. Business owners have already taken advantage of it. Instead of dropping the prices, they're even increasing it continuously so we could really feel the struggle of the inflation crisis.
The drop really is not reflecting in prices of goes and services and this is unfortunate. If there is reduced price in crude oil, it has not had better influence in the market. Products are in the increase, pump price of oil is yet not adjusted especially for countries that are not manufacturing or technological. The OPEC countries are only regulating global oil production.
Crude oil prices are always cyclic so no surprise here, won't be surprised to see them drop even lower. However, I believe the sustainability of price drop and subsequent stabilization will be more known by winter.
I think it will not drop lower anymore. There was a price drop in our country as well but the sad part is there was no price drop in the prices of main essential goods. Business owners have already taken advantage of it. Instead of dropping the prices, they're even increasing it continuously so we could really feel the struggle of the inflation crisis.
August 5, 2022:
Brent - 94.2
WTI - 88.4
Urals - 90.68
Brent - 94.2
WTI - 88.4
I don't know where you've got that data but don't give them false hopes...
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures
Ural spot is at 72.18 after taking a tumble to 68.88 so Putin, the Master
But wait for the expert in economics to tell us how oil will reach 30000$ per barrel cause Russia is stonk!
Funny how the EU hs managed to not only avoid recession but post linear growth for Q1 and Q2, record employment levels while the inflation is only 0.3% for the last month. Must be some kind of himars effect!
Crude oil prices are always cyclic so no surprise here, won't be surprised to see them drop even lower. However, I believe the sustainability on price drop and subsequent stabilization will be more known by winter.
August 5, 2022:
Brent - 94.2
WTI - 88.4
Urals - 90.68
And you can hysteria as much as you like that "this is all temporary, without Russian oil everyone will die"
And ahead is the EU's rejection of terrorists' oil, the EU's rejection of terrorists' gas is still ahead. It's funny to listen to hysterical fantasies, those who, by self-hypnosis, prove the greatness of the miserable old terrorist
Brent - 94.2
WTI - 88.4
Urals - 90.68
And you can hysteria as much as you like that "this is all temporary, without Russian oil everyone will die"
And ahead is the EU's rejection of terrorists' oil, the EU's rejection of terrorists' gas is still ahead. It's funny to listen to hysterical fantasies, those who, by self-hypnosis, prove the greatness of the miserable old terrorist 
Oil prices in general will be volatile for the next year or so. The war, in general, has defected it, but also Europe urgency to move towards renewable green energy will leave the oil prices will be all over the place. Especially since there is a strong incentive to be less gas dependent, and that switch takes time, it might be some time before we see oil stable.
Interesting insight from both of you, didn't actually know that USA is selling their crude oil reserves, a move that will only temporarily relieve the market. I'd like to see how this progresses in the upcoming months. Unfortunately, I was also expecting that this could only be a non-permanent drop in oil prices, since Russian oil imports are yet to be replaced, while the war isn't stopping anytime soon.
Your understanding will become deeper and more complete if you carefully consider the idea that Biden does not really need cheap oil and cheap gasoline. Expensive oil makes shale mining profitable in the United States, and expensive gasoline makes the transition to electric cars more attractive in the eyes of Americans (which directly fits into the democratic green agenda). 
I have a bad feeling about all this. By the first week of November, the selloff from SPR is going to stop and crude will be back to >$120 levels (or much higher than that). The only factor this is pulling down the price is the massive selloff by the American administration from their SPR. They don't have any reason to continue with it, once voting closes on 8th November. And even worse, the Americans may try to refill the SPR which should be almost empty by then. I won't be surprised if the crude oil prices cross $150 per barrel level.
I felt I needed to take a look at it after reading your post. I was aware Biden's Administration was releaing a significant percentage of those reserves, but then I realized it was way more than I thought it was.
According to that graph, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of USA are at the levels of 1986!
So the scenario you explained may be indeed possible depending on how fast the government wants to replenish their SPR and whether they plan to do it with foreign or national production.
This seems to be quite a political move looking foward to November rather than part of a long term plan to relieve common citizens from high energy prices...
OPEC has increased the production by around 0.1%. Americans have been releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) like there is no tomorrow. The Biden administration ordered this, because he knows that his party is fucked for the November elections. The issue here is that, once the election is over this gimmick will stop and the crude prices will be back to $120-$130 level. And in the end the American public will suffer. Because they are getting rid of the reserves in SPR when the prices are <$100 per barrel. And most probably it will be refilled when the prices are at least 30% higher.
I don't know what can save the Democratic rating, for example, apart from unleashing an armed conflict with China to protect the freedom of democracy in Taiwan. The war will write everything off. I have a bad feeling about all this. By the first week of November, the selloff from SPR is going to stop and crude will be back to >$120 levels (or much higher than that). The only factor this is pulling down the price is the massive selloff by the American administration from their SPR. They don't have any reason to continue with it, once voting closes on 8th November. And even worse, the Americans may try to refill the SPR which should be almost empty by then. I won't be surprised if the crude oil prices cross $150 per barrel level.
I felt I needed to take a look at it after reading your post. I was aware Biden's Administration was releaing a significant percentage of those reserves, but then I realized it was way more than I thought it was.
According to that graph, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of USA are at the levels of 1986!
So the scenario you explained may be indeed possible depending on how fast the government wants to replenish their SPR and whether they plan to do it with foreign or national production.
This seems to be quite a political move looking foward to November rather than part of a long term plan to relieve common citizens from high energy prices...
From my understanding I am sure that the adoption of cryptocurrency as dominant the life system of crude oil so I believe that if crude oil is trying to get another value or another increment in the price that means the people is not returning into crude oil investment because since the introduction of cryptocurrency nobody is interested to invest its money in the crude oil session so for crude oil to reach $100, that means it is having a good potential in which people cannot invest into it, but the way I am seeing Bitcoin I don't think that the influence of Bitcoin will allow crude oil to grow again
I have a bad feeling about all this. By the first week of November, the selloff from SPR is going to stop and crude will be back to >$120 levels (or much higher than that). The only factor this is pulling down the price is the massive selloff by the American administration from their SPR. They don't have any reason to continue with it, once voting closes on 8th November. And even worse, the Americans may try to refill the SPR which should be almost empty by then. I won't be surprised if the crude oil prices cross $150 per barrel level.
I was expecting to see this happening but not that soon, just after the war started between Russia and Ukraine and especially after what Putin said about selling oil to other countries the prices started to rise sharply and we all know any sharp price movement like this one needs to have a rest, in the other hand the Europian countries are trying to find an alternative for Russia and this will surely decrease the price, especially in Europian countries.
I didn't see any considerable amount of drop in the price of fuel in my country and I don't think it will happen as well in most of the countries, apart from the inflation these government may take advantage of the drop in crude oil price by increasing the taxes to the same level so they can generate more tax revenue which maybe helpful to solve existing economy related issues.
Every government is unique in the way they control the prices for their nations gas. Unfortunately, some governments are managing it poorly such as India. Though westerners suffered with Russia Ukraine war and gas cut offs and Russia increased the export to India at lowered prices, India seen no change in the gas prices. The fuel is enormously higher than other nations around. With the current price drop, there is no change at all.
Problem is with central tax and state tax system. You will literally find different taxes and thus prices from one state to another state within same country.
Its managed in most horrible way you can have.
Problem is with central tax and state tax system. You will literally find different taxes and thus prices from one state to another state within same country.
Its managed in most horrible way you can have.
Crude is dropping for a few reasons.
First reason is that production has increased slightly. So there is more supply in the markets.
Second reason is that demand has decreased slightly as well. People are basically driving less. They only take trips they need and don’t waste gas driving around in a circle.
First reason is that production has increased slightly. So there is more supply in the markets.
Second reason is that demand has decreased slightly as well. People are basically driving less. They only take trips they need and don’t waste gas driving around in a circle.
There were plans to release oil from america's strategic petroleum reserves in an effort to reduces gas prices. It is possible that these initiatives are finally manifesting themselves in market prices.
Biden proposed suspending the federal gas tax which is an excellent measure I support. Unfortunately, it seems the proposal was buried and might never see the light of day again.
2022 is an election year for the USA. All types of craziness occur in the year and a half leading up to elections.
I think Osama Bin Laden was assassinated prior to previous elections. General Soleimani may have been as well.
Pre election stunts and gimmicks can reach levels of epic proportions. Politicians definitely want the public feeling better gas prices before heading to voting booths, I would guess.
Biden proposed suspending the federal gas tax which is an excellent measure I support. Unfortunately, it seems the proposal was buried and might never see the light of day again.
2022 is an election year for the USA. All types of craziness occur in the year and a half leading up to elections.
I think Osama Bin Laden was assassinated prior to previous elections. General Soleimani may have been as well.
Pre election stunts and gimmicks can reach levels of epic proportions. Politicians definitely want the public feeling better gas prices before heading to voting booths, I would guess.
OPEC has increased the production by around 0.1%. Americans have been releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) like there is no tomorrow. The Biden administration ordered this, because he knows that his party is fucked for the November elections. The issue here is that, once the election is over this gimmick will stop and the crude prices will be back to $120-$130 level. And in the end the American public will suffer. Because they are getting rid of the reserves in SPR when the prices are <$100 per barrel. And most probably it will be refilled when the prices are at least 30% higher.
Jump to: