I think the effect of the Ukraine war is what the market reacts to from the market sentiment. But it's not the grand nature of that decline. We all realized last May bitcoin also had a big retracement at $29k and then everyone was panicking and panicking, but in the end bitcoin hit a new ATH. Therefore, I think it is still advisable to be optimistic about another stronger recovery. It can happen if the positions are confirmed from the market.
Again those are different scenarios, we haven't reach new all time high that time and it was a typical retracement to $29k. But now, when we did experience a magical run to $69k and then we slowly decline to what we are right now. So it's a combination of retracement and then followed by panic due to the war. And it may very well confirmed that we are not in a bull run cycle this year.
I would guess that it is not really "that" different. Obviously, it is a bit different and we are living in a different timeline. We are living in a situation where things are not really as bad as you might imagine, it is not great neither, but it is not as bad for crypto neither. While from the Ukraine and even from the west we may see bitcoin dropping and people are panicking, we are also seeing from Russia how the oligarchs are switching their money into crypto to get away from sanctions.
So, even though it is not the same as 29k to 69k period right now, it is not a bear run neither, at least not for the time being, I do not know what the future will hold.