Topic: Crypto winter is coming again … - page 2. (Read 4616 times)

Rumour going around bitcoin looks like its getting pumped so some big miners maximize their return as they exit and buy cheap bitcoin cash.



We also have McAfee and Jihan Wu from Bitmain backing it even though Wu earlier was one of the loudest voice for 2x.Even Lukedashjr said he preferred BCH over LTC for micropayments,sidechain etc making poor coblee cry 

An endless speculation regarding cryptocurrency in the future.
What kind of winter that you have mentioned here?
Bitcoin price constantly increasing over time and some altcoins following but mostly left behind, barely dead.
You prefer to trade cryptocurrency instead of holding for long term, right?
And the best coins to rise, for the next episode of Scalepocalypse is Ltc?

When bitcoin rises in price then all the altcoins are getting cheaper. This is not surprising. It is a pattern. If after November the price stabiliziruemost that altcoins also begin to catch up in price. Now many people are buying bitcoins, but it seems to me that it is not correct. Now we need to pay more attention to altcoins.

I am employing http://cryptowat.ch to view the charts. On a 1D (1 day) chart, LTCUSD is still in a bullish trend. LTCBTC appears to be finding a spike down, V bottom somewhere in the 0.0070s. Should rocket up again. Extremes have to reached first. I still think $100 and $150 are potentially realistic targets during this current period (over next couple of months or so). Of course, nothing is certain, just talking probabilities. If LTCBTC breaks below 0.0059, that could signal the end of the bullish trend, especially if LTCUSD has also broken down from its trend (just view the LTCUSD chart, the trend slope is obvious). We were expecting LTCBTC to reach 0.03 before this bullish trend ends (and possibly 0.05 on some insane moonshot spike), so if that holds then at $150, then BTC would need to be $5000. So perhaps BTC moves higher from here ($55 / $7500 or $8000) so we can get a 0.0070s V bottom in LTC (perhaps 0.0073) and then BTC corrects back to $5000 while LTC heads to $150 (perhaps with a first stop at $100 and 0.021 so BTC at $4700). Might not play out exactly that way. Trading is a day-to-day reanalysis.

Volatility will increase as we approach the topping of this current phase transition vertical bull market, as it did in the 2013/4 topping. LTCBTC was up and down like a yo-yo then also.

BCHUSD has a much less clear uptrend slope (not steep if at all). BCHBTC is also in this sort of wedge pattern. Thus appears to me that BCHUSD may fail to make new ATHs on this current move. May need to come back down again first, or maybe not. In short, BCH is going to be highly volatile and move up and down in very fast spikes. I do think though eventually (within this current phase transition over the next couple to few months) it will make a rocketshot to $1500+. Yet I am not 100% certain.

Btw, I sold some more BCH for LTC. I am roughly 50/50 now in BCH and LTC. Waiting for the next episode in the Scalepocalypse. Perhaps I should also diversify more, but have not the time to analyse other coins. I sold BTC up to about $5100. Decided not to hold on for $8000+, because I speculate on 3 baggers in BCH and LTC. Although it is not unthinkable that BTC does a moonshot to $15000+. When BTC declined from $4900ish to $3700ish, I was of the opinion in our private discussion group that it would reattempt $5100. My mistake was not selling some BCH for BTC at that juncture (after I had previously traded some BTC and LTC  for BCH at their prior peaks, e.g. LTC at $80+, and that was after trading some BCH at its prior peak in $800s for LTC). And it was because I was worried about the potential SegWit theft and I had not studied carefully the latest BCHBTC chart which was clearly showing weakness and potential to decline back to below 0.08 as it had progressed (trading requires a continuous attention to new facts as they develop). Given the discussions in this thread, I came the conclusion that any such SegWit theft is unlikely in 2017. Thus in hindsight I should have traded per my expectations in price (was a bit distracted/overloaded at that time so hadn’t developed a well thought out analysis of the situation). I really do not have the free time to be a trader. I am so busy as programmer/developer/doing research ^{(and also daily issues of coping with and sorting out the recovery/cure from disseminated Tuberculosis)}.

you ever plan to make an analysis again on LTC?
Where do you see this coin longterm? BTC/LTC was 0.02 not long ago, and now it's in 0.008~.
As i understand , everything becomes more clearer after November.

I do not think the government (i.e. the thugs bought off by the powers-that-be) should have a monopoly on the system for fund raising. Because I believe the bottom-up free market can allocate funds better than a top-down monopoly can. However, dynamic, multivariate optimization algorithms do not move in a bee line to a global maxima or minima of the solution space. Employing a mathematical algorithm akin to Newton’s gradient method (or something more sophisticated[1]), the multivariate space is optimized with incremental steps and some oscillation (overstep and pullback) around the minima valley (or maxima peak). And even then, the solution found may be only a local optimum (i.e. at the bottom of the valley floor but there may be another lower valley somewhere out there in the dynamic multivariate solution space). By “multivariate solution space”, I want you to imagine a 3D terrain but then imagine it extended from 3 dimensions to N dimensions. Finding optimal “solutions” is tantamount to finding the lowest valley. And by dynamic, we mean the terrain is always changing as we search it! Thus there may be an unbounded number of candidates and given we can not see all of them in time epsilon, then we have no way of stating which solution was/is/will be optimal! The only known algorithm which can optimize fitness to dynamic multivariate solution spaces is decentralized annealing (i.e. the free market of many independent actors making decisions based on local information they have closest access to coupled with competition amongst top-down actors trying to aggregate wider scope information from any dimension such as time, space, etc). A system which is stated to be composed of bottom-up, decentralized actors, is consistent with some of those actors being top-down organizers within their mathematical “locale” (i.e. local within in a particular dimension of the multivariate solution space); thus, it’s not correct to state that a decentralized system has no centralization. The unbounded complexity of reality is an interwoven multivariate manifold spectrum of decentralization and centralization. If we look at the physics of entanglement, i.e. “action at a distance” (such as China’s advancements in quantum communication), I believe (wish to model as) this is a centralization manifold across some dimensions of the unbounded dimensionality of the universe.

Thus expect overshoots and massive waste as the free market takes money from fools and routes that money to those who can best allocate it for optimum production.

The governments may try to step in to stop the massive waste of selling empty speculation bags to greater fools (no crypto projects have any appreciable real world use/adoption except maybe Bitcoin and Steem) and take their cut of the pie as the cost of our inability to organize ourselves without massive waste. Yet decentralization trumps centralization (eventually and more readily in this era of the Internet) and so some projects are going to figure out a way to allocate capital better than the government privilege+monopolistic-theft model, and these paradigms will “steal” (i.e. reallocate) it all back away from the corrupted retards in government ^{(and those who ride the governments’ coattails who implicitly corrupted because they choose to comply and take the Mark of the Beast instead of coming out of the Great Harlot, thus by their complicity they perpetuate the corruption)} and into massive decentralized production.

And so yeah, expect theft and concomitant corrections along the way as the free market annealing mechanism plays out and we astute developers bring decentralization to the real world adoption.

I assert that I am working feverishly on this and the fruits of my effort will see the light in 2018 ^{(presuming I have control over my chronic health issue)}.

Note we as developers have to decide whether make such sort of ridiculous, self-aggrandizing exposition about ourselves on BCT, as a proactive defence against ignorance about our work/expertise/capabilities because there are some “sick puppies” who were given positions of control and high reputation here who ridicule or otherwise attempt to suppress others. Presumably because of politics and the speculation pot of gold around here. By making some criticisms or claims against SegWit, I make myself a target, but note afair I’ve tried not to malign any person’s reputation in this thread, other than to state material facts and discuss/cite the opinions others have stated about others.

[1] _{I worked for a couple of months on this software in 1996, implementing the 3D renderer, some of import file formats, and creating with manual labor (not some 3D digitization machine which were experimental or very expensive at that time) some of the most detailed photorealistic models of natural objects at that time which are also available in the Art-o-matic software I created. Literally I created a photo realistic model of a hamburger in 1996/7 (the rendering shown at the link is a cartoon rendering but download the software to see the photorealism).}


I have the same dilemma to contemplate. I want to hold some BTC long-term, but I do not currently have any BTC that I acquired well before August. Because we know that with a long-term perspective, hodling is the most risk-free strategy.

During the 2014 winter, afair most or all of the altcoins were sold off even more than BTC.

I’ve been holding BCH and LTC purely based on technical chart analysis and that the Scalepocalypse is not yet resolved. But this is more a trade than a long-term conviction about their value.

In addition to these issues we also have the potential failure of Tether, which I have continued to expect its failure eventually. Pegs are never stable long-term. There is no peg in the history of mankind that did not fail. And there appear to be many shady details around Tether, Bitfinex’s creation of tokens to bail itself of of the attack, and Poloniex seems to trade against its own customers also.

I'm not technically minded but it seems to me Crypto with the ICO goldrush built upon ETH is ripe for a correction. You don't need to be smart to know when EVERYONE thinks this will go on forever then its time to be worried. Korean housewives are investing in ETH and Kakaotalk here is starting a trading platform with Bittrex. Its not about not believing in crypto cause I do but I sense we are off-kilter at the moment. I don't think the mainstream is ready for losing a lot of money in crypto, with even many on this forum are now ETH rich newbies only in crypto a few months and have no experience of the last few years of alts slow decline.


But I wonder if good stable ALTS (no ETH ICO tokens) are also a good safety play in this possible SEGWIT2x fuck up?


I just don't want to be anywhere near the BTC chain or its forks at he moment and if I did hold BTC I wouldn't move it for months. People are running at BTC now thinking its another cash cow flip but I'm not so sure...A lot of newbies and Japanese housewives are bound to fuck up without relay protection.

I was thinking for past days I would not reply to it because it seems to not comprehend what I had already written, but then I decided of WTF I will waste some more of my time and perhaps aid understanding of my thesis a bit. Not to claim my thesis is 100% certain or correct. Just to clarify it.


More cooks does not necessarily make a better designed product. Open source is good at ferreting out bugs but it is not so good about making design decisions. SegWit is a security hole. It enables “pay to anyone” bounties and it enables garbage collection attacks from Mt. Box nodes on Lightning Networks.


Satoshi’s Bitcoin had extensive peer review. They froze it and have focused on not adding features but checking it for correctness.

Besides afaik, we can make Core compatible for the most part by choosing the version before SegWit was added (or just not using the optional SegWit).


Lol. Sheep just ignore me and look at the ass of the other sheep in front of you. That is what the people who financed this crap are expecting us to do.


It will stop itself. He is waiting to let it destroy itself. Never stop an enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.

He is playing to his strengths. He by himself can not crush SegWit. He needs other whales and miners to follow. So he awaits for the SegWit booty to accumulate and then the natural economic incentive will make it happen. Have you never tried to keep flies away from honey?


I think he has also failed to understand that the Zionists are in control of Bitcoin and he will fail to keep it decentralized. But afaics that does not factor into analysis of whether SegWit will fail someday.


Actually there is an earlier year 1999 prior art for proof-of-work[1] than Adam Back’s 2002 publish date for Hashcash (although he made some informal announcement in 1997 of the idea). And yeah I must agree that Adam Back may be much smarter than me about cryptography, but appears to be a dunce w.r.t. to more holistic matters. For example, side-chains are irreparably insecure. Adam Back is a tool of the Zionists who funded Blockstream as a Hegelian dialectic. Everything is according to plan for world dominance.

[1] Note that is the application of a computational puzzle to solve the Sybil attack problem (which is an underlying issue of Byzantine fault tolerant consensus). Hashcash has the specific form of the computational puzzle employed in Bitcoin.


Agreed, but the big blocks are just a misdirection and leverage play to get more BTC into the hands of the Zionists as they play out these false flag forks to take everyone’s BTC and end up with the immutable Bitcoin at the end game.

The plan I think may be that they get the one-world reserve currency but most of the sheep will have lost their BTC along the way.


An 8MB block size with no SegWit is going to look very attractive if SegWit has been stolen and everyone is afraid to buy BTC. A massive stampede out of BTC into BCH is possible, although I am not predicting that nor predicting the timing.


No problem at all. Bitcoin is not a payment currency. It is a one-world reserve currency in the making.

Which is a very important function that the Zionists may have planned out for decades. And which is called for in Revelation.

Hey but this is just cockamamie kooky shit despite all the compelling evidence.

Compared to all other currencies, bitcoin is really superior, it is popular with the community on the increasingly widespread, the demand for bitcoin does not decrease, on the contrary, it increased rapidly, this Makes its value increase dramatically.

There will be corrections and a few ‘crises’ over the years that will cause significant drops in the price of Bitcoin. There’s always going to be some risk even if it is less every year.

What we have seen is that Bitcoin has recovered from all of the MtGox, Cryptsy, and ‘Bitcoin is dead’ crises over the years so there is a good chance that it will overcome a future crisis as well. I think the fact that Bitcoin has been through those and survived is what makes it worth so much now and what keeps it as the top cryptocurrency.

There is no predition I can trust when it comes to bitcoin. All alternative coins still respond to prediction except bitcoin. The general believe of bitcoin is even against your opinion with regards to winter.Just like every other commodity, the demand should be higher then and we know how demand affect value of coin.

I recommend clicking the quote and reading the entire blog and the insightful comments below the blog.







So above indicates the possibility of a plateau or correction before the vertical phase transition continues.

Some where I actually corrected that to “rule (actually chaos) of the mob”:


Someone ^{(who is much more well respected around here than I am)} sent this message to me in private:

I am glad that someone else has noticed they did not offer us that option. Was it on purpose?