The fundamental analysis is very positive,
The fundamental of Bitcoin and nearly all cryptocurrencies is
they are a theft paradigm. Every Legendary I know has lost massive amounts of BTC due to scams and theft. This will continue to be the case.
The fundamentals are not the fantasy of defeating the powers that be and spreading freedom to the slaves, that many may imagine they are and which the mass media helps goyim to fantasize about.
Try to wrap your mind about the fact that the people who run the world are thieves. Jesus threw them out of the temple. They're always scheming ways to strip you of your productivity and savings. This is the reality of the world, not some silly fantasy about how we peons ($millionaires and such) rise up and cut off the head of the beast.
if we get past the segwit2x attack diatribe that is.
After this event is passed, and given no other news of a nature similar to a big government ban of sorts arise, we would be aiming at very high new ATHs.
Your use of the term 'diatribe' in this context implies that you you feel someone is repeating something that you feel is not worthy of your (and others') attention.
The term means an unjustified and unfair verbal attack on someone or something.
But
that is not a rebuttal.
The segwit attack described by hyperme.sh is a very interesting theory, but I think it will never happen and consider it a non-treat. I see it as another unrealistic attack vector.
Overall conclusion is that we are going higher.
There were those who were warning about Mt. Gox, yet many Legendary members here still lost money because they thought it was unlikely to fail.
Cryptocurrency (in addition to
other epochal-shift potential) is a theft paradigm. Every Legendary I know has lost massive amounts of BTC due to scams and theft. This will continue to be the case.
Since many or perhaps most of you have become wiser about safeguarding your private keys and not leaving your BTC on exchanges, the Zionist bankster thieves need a more sophisticated method of taking your BTC from you gullible goyim.
Fact is if a huge booty is created and if there are still millions of BTC that hate SegWit, that is basically a near guarantee that miners will take that booty and give those whales what they want.I quesstimate slightly below 80% odds of it occurring, but I much less convicted about when it will occur. I think it is quite plausible that the current bubble is nascent and we need to move much higher and have much more booty accumulate before the crypto winter:
Trace Mayer Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $27,395 USD By February 2018
OTOH, we're already way above the ~50% per annum average appreciation of Bitcoin and we are 5X higher than the prior peak in 2013/14. So we're already entering nosebleed terroritory, but perhaps we need to hit $10,000+ or some level ($50,000?) where my nose is bleeding profusely before we finally get the SegWit attack, the SEC crackdown on major ICOs such as EOS, and perhaps also the failure of TetherUSD, Bitfinex, and perhaps Poloniex also.
Something like a contagion is on my radar but I do not know when. Perhaps some time in 2018. And note that if I am correct about Bitmain clients spending their BTC into exchanges and then later double-spending it with a long-range chain reorganization, we could indeed see exchanges fail.
Something very widespread and sinister is brewing, but it may take us higher and deeper first before it reveals itself.
Given the timing is so uncertain, it's possible that BCH could decline significantly before it catapults. In my theory, the protagonists would want BCH to be sold off and cheap as possible before beginning their SegWit attack. However, if SegWit2x fails (not the attack) as I expect in November, BCH and LTC (with its larger blocks and SegWit) may be the beneficiary for big blockers. So perhaps we get another spike upwards for BCH and LTC (i.e. SegWit not destroyed yet, so 8MB blocks on BCH and 2MB blocks and SegWit on LTC), then perhaps some long drawn out decline before the massive SegWit attack, BCH skyrocketing, and then the crypto winter. There are many possible scenarios.
Seems we are likely to get the battle over larger blocks before the battle over the viability of SegWit. The SegWit attack probably won't occur in 2017.
My only though is that with LedgerX (CFTC regulated) derivatives now here, I'm especially hesitant to say we'll see a crypto winter, at least not before we see much higher prices.
That seems to be a significant development. I was not aware of that. So indeed more leverage means a greater possible swing to the upside, and availability of shorting should mean less collapse to the downside. And this feeds into my point that since no one can print Bitcoin out-of-thin-air yet, a contagion later could be possibly cause widespread defaults. However, Bitfinex found a way to print BTC out-of-thin-air, they created their own token instead of delivering BTC.
We’re blowing more air into the balloons. Every time a new fork is created, the wealth effect makes us all think we’re richer than we were before. But liquidity can be a mirage when we’re effectively buying from ourselves.
If the authorities cut off the spigot somehow by declaring certain tokens to be illegal securities, then perhaps that is one of the factors that could crater the greater bubble we might see over the ensuing months.
Note this is probably just feeding speculation about speculation and yet another example of lack of real world use cases being delivered. There’s no actual revenue model, just like in the Dot.com bubble. And feeding into the SEC’s recent warning about the sector being in a bubble:
Cryptocurrencies are no different from any other investment product. It is a misrepresentation that they offer an alternative to the dollar. No matter how much money one made on Bitcoin, they still have to sell it to realize that profit and how are they measuring that profit? In dollars of course.
That is for the most part correct at this time. Although I can use Bitcoin to pay for things, but normally it is converted to fiat when I pay someone such as pay my rent.
I will be launching an altcoin that attempts to provide utility for the tokens without converting them back to fiat.
Maybe in a 2 - 5 years or something, when BIG money is in the game on a world wide scale and we'll be in the Trillions for combined MCap. The time when most ICOs have had a few years, and still haven't produced anything tangible and they actually run out of greater fools. Then we'll see something like a true crypto winter that could last for years.
It’s not clear to me if we go directly to the $trillions mcap or have another crypto winter interim. The arguments for the former are somewhat compelling. A phase-shift transition normally moves to much greater extremes. Also worry about ICO crackdowns, SegWit attacks, etc, would be indications of not yet being near the top. Near the top, everyone will entirely forget those precautions (and that is when they occur in order to steal from the most people, i.e. the vast majority have to be on the wrong side of the trade). So my precautions are usually premature, as I am highly contrarian.
Well I might say that ETH has had a few years and produced nothing tangible, but ETH was the enabler for ERC-20 ICOs. And the recent EOS token sale to me was an indicator of a fever where
afaics suitable legal precautions were deemed unnecessary, but it could be that we are only in the middle innings (baseball analogy) yet.
