Correct, people lack long term perspective and experience. BTC has been around since 2010 and price rises now date back to events years ago. The long term view for BTC is incredible gains and the current situation is incredibly positive. Sure it went up and came back down but its still a unique market in history, technology taking place that has never been seen before.
Its very hard to estimate future Bitcoin prices because a large part of the price is already speculation. The things which really matter and move far slower are the actual protocol development and also real world usage, the actual population of users not exchange bunnies hopping around on price movements.
When market appears slow its very possible the other two dynamics are carrying the burden of carrying on BTC interests long term. Really all that matters is the people who find BTC useful, the rest is pipe dreams and who knows which way the wind blows on that one really.
Also look long term at Dollar index for some reference to flows in currency strength inverse to BTC