Topic: Death of Etheruem mining - Predicitions - page 5. (Read 2662 times)
They should rename "Smart Contracts" to "Not so smart contracts"
They are not going to hurt themselves if they delay it. They will say that there is some bug and they need more time and the market will give them another 6 months. It’s been 6 years delayed already. Another 6 months won’t hurt.
In a true bear market whether the fork is successful or not it won’t matter, it will go down anyways on even positive news. I remember with Bitcoin during 2014-2015 there was lots of positive developments but it kept going down anyways. News doesn’t matter in certain trending markets.
In a true bear market whether the fork is successful or not it won’t matter, it will go down anyways on even positive news. I remember with Bitcoin during 2014-2015 there was lots of positive developments but it kept going down anyways. News doesn’t matter in certain trending markets.
Have they decided upon the block numbers already?
Not yet.
In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.
wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut
Its simple they will push it out if coin is over 2k
They will let it happen if coin is under 1k
the gray zone is 1-2k
No, they will keep on pushing it and commit the merge between PoS testnet and mainnet. There're maybe some delays, fuds but they're hell bent on doing it, not by any price range but because the ETH has been stagnant for a while. If they keep on the delay like times before, they will hurt ETH furthermore, a self-sabotaging act.
Have they decided upon the block numbers already?
Not yet.
In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.
wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut
Its simple they will push it out if coin is over 2k
They will let it happen if coin is under 1k
the gray zone is 1-2k
Have they decided upon the block numbers already?
Not yet.
In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.
Ethereum developers are great pros at delay the difficulty bomb.
wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut
To be fair, the concern was they were not comfortable with 20+ sec block times by Aug, moving the bomb offset by 400,000 would make Aug block times stay in the 13-14 sec range and Sep block times could be in the 15-16 sec range, so if they wanted to slip the merge to Sep they'ld still be in the "comfortable" block times range. So merge could be in Aug, but could be in Sep.
Have they decided upon the block numbers already?
Not yet.
In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.
wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut
#ETH2 i guess will be sort of something very interesting.
Have you seen this certified Miner allready for the ETH2?
https://www.vminertechco.com
Have you seen this certified Miner allready for the ETH2?
https://www.vminertechco.com
Have they decided upon the block numbers already?
Not yet.
In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.
Core dev call just wrapped up, devs sound like they are no longer ok with having 20+ sec block times by Aug.
No decision yet on pushing the bomb, but an EIP will be drafted to push the bomb by 400,000 blocks in order to ensure Aug block times in the 13 sec range. They will decide on that EIP in the next core dev call.
No decision yet on pushing the bomb, but an EIP will be drafted to push the bomb by 400,000 blocks in order to ensure Aug block times in the 13 sec range. They will decide on that EIP in the next core dev call.
Have they decided upon the block numbers already?
According to Tim's wrap https://twitter.com/TimBeiko/status/1530281870608322560, it's going to be around a 3-month delay.
And this update will come with bellatrix hard fork, so at least one month from now.
1 month for update+3 month of delay = total 4 months of delay from today.
That's almost mid of September, my prediction of August no longer stands lol
It's probably going to be September. R.I.P to those who had money on August
Unless,,, it's really a 400,000 blockdelay(and thus 2 months and not 3). Making it August again !
No decision yet on pushing the bomb, but an EIP will be drafted to push the bomb by 400,000 blocks
That's not much. Only 60 days, but it's better than nothing.
Core dev call just wrapped up, devs sound like they are no longer ok with having 20+ sec block times by Aug.
No decision yet on pushing the bomb, but an EIP will be drafted to push the bomb by 400,000 blocks in order to ensure Aug block times in the 13 sec range. They will decide on that EIP in the next core dev call.
No decision yet on pushing the bomb, but an EIP will be drafted to push the bomb by 400,000 blocks in order to ensure Aug block times in the 13 sec range. They will decide on that EIP in the next core dev call.
More blocktime estimates have been posted at: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/22 (see last post/graph)
Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs
Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.
So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.
If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).
Anyway, more information about the end of mining will be in July. If there are problems during testing, then you will probably have to move the difficulty bomb. Developers will probably not allow more than 25 seconds for a block, but miners will soon notice a decrease in profit. Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs
Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.
So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.
If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).
More blocktime estimates have been posted at: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/22 (see last post/graph)
Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs
Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.
So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.
If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).
Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs
Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.
So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.
If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).
I was expecting a more steep decline in block time.
They are indeed serious about pushing the merge before this coming fall.
As a result, the GPU market is already crashing. I sold my 2-year-old GPUs last week at MSRP, and now I can buy "new" AIB GPUs at a better price. Funny.
More blocktime estimates have been posted at: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/22 (see last post/graph)
Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs
Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.
So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.
If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).
Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs
Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.
So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.
If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).
Vitalik cements my original prediction of a merge in August 
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/utqthe/vitalik_at_eth_shanghai_may_20_on_the_merge_if/
Vitalik upheld the launch this year but he is not sure of the predicted August. There are chances date might change if any problem comes up in the block. It actually not far from the previous estimated date of June 2022, more also the roadmap has been updated and published. I am not sure it might have much of impact on Ethereum, altcoin and overall market. Bear market has not been proven otherwise with such development however I think this could be the first in the next phase into the coming cycle Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/utqthe/vitalik_at_eth_shanghai_may_20_on_the_merge_if/
Vitalik cements my original prediction of a merge in August
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/utqthe/vitalik_at_eth_shanghai_may_20_on_the_merge_if/
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/utqthe/vitalik_at_eth_shanghai_may_20_on_the_merge_if/
Yes, I read that, so I was surprised when you posted that you expected a +10 sec increase by June 15:
According to my estimate, the difficulty will explode at block #15000000
Before reaching #15000000, there's going to be one more difficulty adjustment by the bomb equation at #14900000. Which won't be significant but will definitely delay per block time by at least 5 second or maybe even by 10 seconds. Unless the devs defuse or delay the bomb before #14900000, which can be done quite easily at anytime.
The way the difficulty bomb works is that the block times don’t reduce times until well into the difficulty bomb. So if by Aug they are aiming for the POS, then there is a chance they might just leave the difficulty bomb in there. The times will be slower but issuance will be reduced which is what the devs want.
If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.
Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.
If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.
Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.
Nope.
Difficulty bomb is an exponential function, with 2 to the power of a 100,000 step function of block height(2^x; where x is the step function).
Right now the increasing difficulty is caused by mining(LHR unlock increased diff by like 5%), and thus it is mitigating any effect of the time bomb.
Once we reach a block, which add another step to x. We will see a humongous increase in the difficulty.
It will be so much that any mining will be deemed useless. The chain will halt and all transactions will stop.
It's literally a bomb. It will explode within seconds, on a particular block height. Bomb will reach that height by 15th of june. By then we might notice an increase by 10 seconds, as we approach the date. The increase will be concentrated towards the end.
So the difficulty bomb has been updated? So you are saying that as soon as June 15 it will immediately increase by 10 seconds?
Because before when the bomb hit you wouldn’t notice it until a few weeks and then as the month when on it started to get pretty much. And the devs just left it for some reason. So maybe now they will prevent it from happening but with the ETH devs you never know what really will happen.
I followed that meeting, and included the gist of it in first reply of this thread.
Yes, I read that, so I was surprised when you posted that you expected a +10 sec increase by June 15:
... Bomb will reach that height by 15th of june. By then we might notice an increase by 10 seconds, as we approach the date...
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