Agenda of core dev ....
I followed that meeting, and included the gist of it in first reply of this thread.We have another dev meeting today. Buckle up buckarooo
Topic: Death of Etheruem mining - Predicitions - page 6. (Read 2662 times)
We have another dev meeting today. Buckle up buckarooo
Agenda of core dev meeting #138 (https://github.com/ethereum/pm/issues/518) had this difficulty bomb tracker listed: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/19
Their estimate was by mid-June block times would be around 15 secs (scroll down to the last post entry).
Looks like the real pain will start in September, if ETH price stays constant or falls. This looks identical to the 2017 bomb explosion except with a 1 second faster block time. Their estimate was by mid-June block times would be around 15 secs (scroll down to the last post entry).
Agenda of core dev meeting #138 (https://github.com/ethereum/pm/issues/518) had this difficulty bomb tracker listed: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/19
Their estimate was by mid-June block times would be around 15 secs (scroll down to the last post entry).
Their estimate was by mid-June block times would be around 15 secs (scroll down to the last post entry).
The way the difficulty bomb works is that the block times don’t reduce times until well into the difficulty bomb. So if by Aug they are aiming for the POS, then there is a chance they might just leave the difficulty bomb in there. The times will be slower but issuance will be reduced which is what the devs want.
If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.
Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.
If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.
Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.
Nope.
Difficulty bomb is an exponential function, with 2 to the power of a 100,000 step function of block height(2^x; where x is the step function).
Right now the increasing difficulty is caused by mining(LHR unlock increased diff by like 5%), and thus it is mitigating any effect of the time bomb.
Once we reach a block, which add another step to x. We will see a humongous increase in the difficulty.
It will be so much that any mining will be deemed useless. The chain will halt and all transactions will stop.
It's literally a bomb. It will explode within seconds, on a particular block height. Bomb will reach that height by 15th of june. By then we might notice an increase by 10 seconds, as we approach the date. The increase will be concentrated towards the end.
Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.
I agree, it took 3 months for the difficulty bomb to start to hurt my mining profit back in 2017. The bomb started exploding in early May, but it wasn't until August that revenue noticeably declined.To me, whether or not the devs defuse the bomb is like a 'groundhog day' for PoS. If they defuse it, PoS will come later. If they don't, PoS will happen this summer.
The way the difficulty bomb works is that the block times don’t reduce times until well into the difficulty bomb. So if by Aug they are aiming for the POS, then there is a chance they might just leave the difficulty bomb in there. The times will be slower but issuance will be reduced which is what the devs want.
If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.
Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.
If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.
Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.
Personally i will never again listen news or social media. i learnt it in 2018.
This time it's different. Source: Trust me bro
I will still stick to my Q4 2022 prediction. The ETH developers are the 'used auto salesmen of tech'. They have delivered late on their promises 90% of the time. The problem this summer is the difficulty bomb, not PoS.
Difficulty bomb can be defused or delayed anytime(but before 15th June). It really isn't a problem.Do not have to trust the various experts in the sector and the various pseudo news, the tests are well advanced but not yet perfect in my opinion the actual transition to pos will not take place before 2023
That's too much extrapolation through distrust. ETH devs are slow, true. But it's due to their thorough nature. They don't want to release a blunder and crash the crypto sphere.
This merge needs bugless clients, else we will face incidents of slashing, halted chain and even quadratic leak(where majority of your eth will literally burn and you can do nothing about it).
My money is still on August.
Do not have to trust the various experts in the sector and the various pseudo news, the tests are well advanced but not yet perfect in my opinion the actual transition to pos will not take place before 2023
I will still stick to my Q4 2022 prediction. The ETH developers are the 'used auto salesmen of tech'. They have delivered late on their promises 90% of the time. The problem this summer is the difficulty bomb, not PoS.
Personally i will never again listen news or social media. i learnt it in 2018.
I also listened in the past to those devs and they are confident one day of making the merge and then next week they are saying there are issues and needs to be delayed.
I know it won’t be in June. Honestly that’s only 2 months from now which is not possible. So maybe earliest Aug however they will most likely run into more issues as the day becomes closer.
I know it won’t be in June. Honestly that’s only 2 months from now which is not possible. So maybe earliest Aug however they will most likely run into more issues as the day becomes closer.
Ethereum goes pos, or Death of USDT and the clones and coinbase.
my prediction
my prediction
Ethereum switching to proof of stake will be its biggest mistake, all those whales expecting huge staking rewards will be disappointed on the long run, I still very much believe that the PoW algorithm is what takes Ethereum to this level.
Here,
This delay will be in accordance with mainnet merge date(i.e. whichever date devs are confident with). Judging by how the development is going, it will be a delay of 2 months from June 15th. So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.
... So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.
Why Aug 15?
Due to difficulty bomb.
Devs are going to delay it for 2 months(minimum and optimal situation).
Difficulty bomb is a crucial part of migration. For protection from miners(bifurcation through 51% attack).
Ethereum switching to proof of stake will be its biggest mistake, all those whales expecting huge staking rewards will be disappointed on the long run, I still very much believe that the PoW algorithm is what takes Ethereum to this level.
... So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.
Why Aug 15?
There are 3 public testnets: Ropsten, Sepolia, Goerli.
In the previous core dev calls they were planning 2 weeks per testnet. In the latest core dev call they set a date for Ropsten merge on Jun 8. Add two weeks and you get Jun 22 for the 2nd testnet. Add another two weeks and you get Jul 6 for the 3rd (and final) testnet. Add a further two weeks and you get Jul 20 when they can do Mainnet.
This is all assuming no issues with the testnet merges.
So why did you go up to Aug 15?
I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below
“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.
The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.
We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.
We will assess when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “
yada yada yada. bla bla bla.
below is my opinion
The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.
Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.
I see no reason that eth pos is better than luna/ust
and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.
Does the ethereum development team have their own stablecoin?they make a statement like the one below
“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.
The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.
We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.
We will assess when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “
yada yada yada. bla bla bla.
below is my opinion
The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.
Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.
I see no reason that eth pos is better than luna/ust
and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.
Speculators have created many different derivatives and stablecoins backed by other useless altcoins. This is probably a message for everyone not to use dubious stablecoins.
I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below
“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.
The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.
We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.
We will assess when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “
yada yada yada. bla bla bla.
below is my opinion
The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.
Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.
I see no reason that eth pos is better than luna/ust
and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.
they make a statement like the one below
“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.
The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.
We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.
We will assess when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “
yada yada yada. bla bla bla.
below is my opinion
The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.
Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.
I see no reason that eth pos is better than luna/ust
and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.
I'd have to say that your opinion sounds like it's coming from someone who is mining ETH right now.
I don't see how switching to PoS relates ETH to Luna/UST. The issues are so far apart I'm surprised you'd make that connection. While PoS certainly sucks and ETH will be weaker as a result, comparing it to the obvious collapse of a ponzi scheme is a bit far fetched. More likely ETH will begin to lose market share as miners move on to the next shiny thing to make a profit from. I do think people will be a bit shocked when they realize that ETH got a lot of it's value from giving away coins to miners who then supported the infrastructure to add value to their mining rewards. There's a lot of hardware out there that will be looking for work, literally... Ravencoin to the moon?
I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below
“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.
The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.
We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.
We will assess when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “
yada yada yada. bla bla bla.
below is my opinion
The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.
Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.
I see no reason that eth pos is better than luna/ust
and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.
they make a statement like the one below
“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.
The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.
We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.
We will assess when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “
yada yada yada. bla bla bla.
below is my opinion
The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.
Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.
I see no reason that eth pos is better than luna/ust
and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.
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