Topic: del (Read 3829 times)

But the local probability always converge to the basic probability.

I just rolled 20000000 times with the virtual coin and turned out:  10000630 heads and 9999370 tails, which is very close to eachother.

Maximum consecutive is 29

[IMG.]http://i62.tinypic.com/35k34nc.png[/img]

To clarify, if you make infinite rolls (10^100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000...)
the heads and tails tend to even out. But when you take 10 or a trillion rolls, there is no such concept.

Yeah, it is mostly correct, but if it was to even out, as the rolls go by, the tails would have more odds than heads which is incorrect. So Phildo is not exactly wrong, but in this particular part, leex is 100% correct.

tl'dr There is no such thing called evening out in practical cases/finite rolls.

To clarify, if you make infinite rolls (10^100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000...)
the heads and tails tend to even out. But when you take 10 or a trillion rolls, there is no such concept.

Yeah, it is mostly correct, but if it was to even out, as the rolls go by, the tails would have more odds than heads which is incorrect. So Phildo is not exactly wrong, but in this particular part, leex is 100% correct.

tl'dr There is no such thing called evening out in practical cases/finite rolls.

I'll agree with if you show me your betting simulations and state which dice game algorithm you used.

All I can tell you is I have made a dice simulator for JD and PD and if you group the results by 10s you do reach a point where you approach equal distribution of numbers.

Using this method I can within a good % know that a bet will win in a worst case situation.

Nonce: 88 - roll: 98.89
Nonce: 87 - roll: 56.1
Nonce: 86 - roll: 35.51
Nonce: 85 - roll: 52.52
Nonce: 84 - roll: 54.18
Nonce: 83 - roll: 6
Nonce: 82 - roll: 68.76
Nonce: 81 - roll: 16.11
Nonce: 80 - roll: 66.23
Nonce: 79 - roll: 0.46
Nonce: 78 - roll: 36.88
Nonce: 77 - roll: 59.19
Nonce: 76 - roll: 79.42
Nonce: 75 - roll: 40.23
Nonce: 74 - roll: 63.26
Nonce: 73 - roll: 63.24
Nonce: 72 - roll: 21.22
Nonce: 71 - roll: 4.21
Nonce: 70 - roll: 48.35
Nonce: 69 - roll: 59.79
Nonce: 68 - roll: 60.91
Nonce: 67 - roll: 41.93
Nonce: 66 - roll: 23.16
Nonce: 65 - roll: 30.72
Nonce: 64 - roll: 85.32
Nonce: 63 - roll: 80.74
Nonce: 62 - roll: 26.08
Nonce: 61 - roll: 98.65
Nonce: 60 - roll: 80.26
Nonce: 59 - roll: 90.74
Nonce: 58 - roll: 95.12
Nonce: 57 - roll: 18.41
Nonce: 56 - roll: 19.54
Nonce: 55 - roll: 92.7
Nonce: 54 - roll: 31.53
Nonce: 53 - roll: 20.12
Nonce: 52 - roll: 82.97
Nonce: 51 - roll: 92.78
Nonce: 50 - roll: 24.69
Nonce: 49 - roll: 91.51
Nonce: 48 - roll: 42.3
Nonce: 47 - roll: 18.55
Nonce: 46 - roll: 48.49
Nonce: 45 - roll: 42.94
Nonce: 44 - roll: 22.84
Nonce: 43 - roll: 76.58
Nonce: 42 - roll: 93.79
Nonce: 41 - roll: 91.96
Nonce: 40 - roll: 75.94
Nonce: 39 - roll: 74.44
Nonce: 38 - roll: 54.75
Nonce: 37 - roll: 6.88
Nonce: 36 - roll: 92.08
Nonce: 35 - roll: 83.98
Nonce: 34 - roll: 44.43
Nonce: 33 - roll: 9.52
Nonce: 32 - roll: 84.54
Nonce: 31 - roll: 5.33
Nonce: 30 - roll: 88
Nonce: 29 - roll: 86.96
Nonce: 28 - roll: 87.83
Nonce: 27 - roll: 53.67
Nonce: 26 - roll: 81.23
Nonce: 25 - roll: 63.29
Nonce: 24 - roll: 44.41
Nonce: 23 - roll: 29.08
Nonce: 22 - roll: 79.29
Nonce: 21 - roll: 81
Nonce: 20 - roll: 66.28
Nonce: 19 - roll: 78.82
Nonce: 18 - roll: 45.61
Nonce: 17 - roll: 6.91
Nonce: 16 - roll: 97.79
Nonce: 15 - roll: 94.84
Nonce: 14 - roll: 37.74
Nonce: 13 - roll: 45.23
Nonce: 12 - roll: 72.75
Nonce: 11 - roll: 17.79
Nonce: 10 - roll: 28.56
Nonce: 9 - roll: 2.33
Nonce: 8 - roll: 13.51
Nonce: 7 - roll: 70.9
Nonce: 6 - roll: 53.81
Nonce: 5 - roll: 72.72
Nonce: 4 - roll: 36.48
Nonce: 3 - roll: 9.2
Nonce: 2 - roll: 63.17
Nonce: 1 - roll: 96.17
Nonce: 0 - roll: 42.1

If you would run a simulation of bets/rolls (same server seed and client seed) the outcome over many bets should roughly show equal distribution of numbers. It might happen in 1000 bets, 10000 bets, or 100000 bets, but it will happen. But knowing this will happen allows you to change the way you bet in your advantage.

Now if you say there is not equal distribution of numbers, that's even better. You can determine where most of the roll/bets hit and play that to your advantage.

Either way, not looking to the past results to determine the way you play dice is why most call it a luck game.

Yeah I was mostly agreeing with you, but sort of.  I was saying the dice don't know that they rolled 10 heads in a row, so even after the 10 rolls it won't start to go more toward 50/50, from that point on it would be closer to 50/50, but after I suppose 100000 rolls if you had 10 more heads than tails it still would be close to 50/50.  

That's what I was showing. It is unlikely to get 10 heads in a row. But if you do, the next one is still 50/50, AND you will get to 50/50 over the long term without changing the odds.

Stats are a crazy thing.  Looking at things in a short run, getting 10 heads in 10 flips is .5^10.  Not good odds.

However after 10 flips, the odds of flipping the next coin is still 50/50.  In your example after the 10 ones are head, the next 100 rolls are still supposed to be closer to 50 heads 50 tails than anything else. 

This is 1000 percent wrong.

Lets just look at flipping a coin to make things simple. The equal distribution happens from having the correct probability happen over and over and over again over a large sample.

If you flip 10 heads in a row, the odds of the next one being heads is still 50/50. If you keep flipping a coin, eventually your results will get to 50/50, not because tails is more likely on future events, but just because you keep doing it.

If you get 10 heads out of 10 flips you got heads 100% of the time.

If the next 10 are 50/50, you have 15 out of 20, 75% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50, you have 20 out of 30, 66 2/3% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50, you have 25 out of 40, 62.5% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50, you have 30 out of 50,  60% heads.

And so on and so on until you get back down to 50.

If you would run a simulation of bets/rolls (same server seed and client seed) the outcome over many bets should roughly show equal distribution of numbers. It might happen in 1000 bets, 10000 bets, or 100000 bets, but it will happen. But knowing this will happen allows you to change the way you bet in your advantage.

Now if you say there is not equal distribution of numbers, that's even better. You can determine where most of the roll/bets hit and play that to your advantage.

Either way, not looking to the past results to determine the way you play dice is why most call it a luck game.

This is 1000 percent wrong.

Lets just look at flipping a coin to make things simple. The equal distribution happens from having the correct probability happen over and over and over again over a large sample.

If you flip 10 heads in a row, the odds of the next one being heads is still 50/50. If you keep flipping a coin, eventually your results will get to 50/50, not because tails is more likely on future events, but just because you keep doing it.

If you get 10 heads out of 10 flips you got heads 100% of the time.

If the next 10 are 50/50, you have 15 out of 20, 75% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50, you have 20 out of 30, 66 2/3% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50, you have 25 out of 40, 62.5% heads

If the next 10 are 50/50, you have 30 out of 50,  60% heads.

And so on and so on until you get back down to 50.

If you would run a simulation of bets/rolls (same server seed and client seed) the outcome over many bets should roughly show equal distribution of numbers. It might happen in 1000 bets, 10000 bets, or 100000 bets, but it will happen. But knowing this will happen allows you to change the way you bet in your advantage.

Now if you say there is not equal distribution of numbers, that's even better. You can determine where most of the roll/bets hit and play that to your advantage.

Either way, not looking to the past results to determine the way you play dice is why most call it a luck game.

Each bet is not independent of each other. Each bet is determined by a algorithm where a nonce is incremented each bet. Which means each bet is dependent on all previous bets, since the bet with nonce=10 would never exist without the previous 9 nonces.

The algorithms that determine the outcome are pseudo random and not truly random.