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Topic: del - page 4. (Read 3829 times)

ndnh

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1005

New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

Well, tbh I have a stupid strategy too. But I am sure it is still negative EV.

But the good thing with my strategy is if the odds are say 1% to roll a >50 and 99% to roll <50 or the other way round, I make a profit. Cashes out on all consecutive same-sided bets but if it keep switching hi and lo, lose lose lose..
Surprisingly I found a few who were following the same thing here. (thought it was just my own one, lol) Cheesy

Quote from: CanIHazBitcoin777 on September 24, 2015, 05:14:07 AM

I put out my strategy simulator I made, you can try it out if you want, I rolled out simulations on easily 200,000- 2,000,000 bets and it does hold up to those wins.

Yeah, coz of variance it could show anywhere from a massive profit to a massive loss.

Quote from: ndnh on September 24, 2015, 05:06:31 AM

Quote from: crytoboost on September 24, 2015, 04:58:34 AM

I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak,

Rule 2 in the book is never chase your losses. Cool

Yes because with any type of recovery strategy, the risk increases faster than the reward and you will end up losing more.

You have to let the losses go in order to stop losing more!

True.

But apply it in this case. With this strategy too the risk is 1.9% more than the reward.

CanIHazBitcoin777

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Quote from: joksim299 on September 24, 2015, 03:47:24 AM

Every bet is independent.

That is true, but it is you who dont understand the gambler's fallacy, it is very misinterpreted.

Individually the bets are random and independent, but collectively they tend to built up a pattern.

Even though if you roll 20 heads in a row, it is more likely that the 21st will be tails. Of course next time it might be 21 heads in a row, but its all random.

It's not just the individual outcome that is random, but the cluster too, so even though if you have 20 heads in a row, it is morel likely that the 21st will be tails, it is not true always.

By betting tails after the 20th, you might win once, but you might lose another time. But it gives a bigger certainty anyway than just naked betting randomly.

Quote from: euripide on September 24, 2015, 05:20:27 AM

you use your strategy to the simulator? Don't use to real gambling site? Your stat are only "simulated" ? Why don't test directly to one dice with 1 satoshi minimum bet?

I use both. The simulator is to configure my strategy, and when I go live then I have a plan.

There are few sites that allow 1 satoshi bets, but 100 satoshi is also affordable because the small inter-bets are not that important.

The key of the strategy relies on the big bet after the consecutives.

euripide

hero member

Activity: 634

Merit: 500

you use your strategy to the simulator? Don't use to real gambling site? Your stat are only "simulated" ? Why don't test directly to one dice with 1 satoshi minimum bet?

CanIHazBitcoin777

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

I put out my strategy simulator I made, you can try it out if you want, I rolled out simulations on easily 200,000- 2,000,000 bets and it does hold up to those wins.

I also think the gambler fallacy is not what it looks like, it is certainly misinterpreted.

Quote from: ndnh on September 24, 2015, 05:06:31 AM

Quote from: crytoboost on September 24, 2015, 04:58:34 AM

I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak,

Rule 2 in the book is never chase your losses. Cool

Yes because with any type of recovery strategy, the risk increases faster than the reward and you will end up losing more.

You have to let the losses go in order to stop losing more!

ndnh

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1005

New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

Quote from: crytoboost on September 24, 2015, 04:58:34 AM

I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak,

Rule 2 in the book is never chase your losses. Cool

crytoboost

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 500

I am interesting to know so how would you get recover when you lost amount at any losing streak, why we go to satoshidice when there are so many dice site available so that method only work with specific dice site.

ndnh

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1005

New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit

Same thing like prerolls. Just wastes extra time. Grin

Edit:

Quote from: CanIHazBitcoin777 on September 24, 2015, 03:57:12 AM

Sorry but I did simulations with 200,000 rolls, and it works. I either end up with -0.01% loss or with 7.7% gain, so I think its a perfect strategy for low risk/ low reward gamblers.

The average consecutive loss/win there is ~ 15-17, so a 20 consecutive trigger is rare, so the risk to bet on that is low.

Gambling is never positive EV. It would be tending towards -1.9% of your wagered amount.

Edit2: Simply understand every single bet is completely independent. Imagine there are 1000 sites, and you make the first 10 bets on 10 different sites, you will understand that the strategy makes no real sense. It only appears to. Cool

Edit3: For 7.7% gain, simply bet 7.7% of the bankroll till you have one win more than the loss. Statistically better chance than the above method, and you can save on time and electricity. Grin

I think SatoshiDice has lower edge on bets with very low chance? Still it is 1.9x standard house edge.

CanIHazBitcoin777

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

Quote from: joksim299 on September 24, 2015, 03:47:24 AM

This is the dumbest strategy to date.

Quote

Now don't lecture me about the Gambler's fallacy problem

Quote from: Echye on September 24, 2015, 03:55:32 AM

This can be done in dice sites with 1%/0.5% house edge, but you will need a bot to stop on win and switch, as with what I know none of the dice sites has this option on their autopilot

Well it is easy with a bot, but you dont necessarly need to switch. I use Satoshidice and they dont have switch, so I just play off the consecutive losses and then increase the bet.

Echye

full member

Activity: 149

Merit: 100

This can be done in dice sites with 1%/0.5% house edge, but you will need a bot to stop on win and switch, as with what I know none of the dice sites has this option on their autopilot

joksim299

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1014

Bitdice is scam scam scammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

This is the dumbest strategy to date.

Quote

Now don't lecture me about the Gambler's fallacy problem

Every bet is independent.

CanIHazBitcoin777

member

Activity: 70

Merit: 10

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