Topic: del - page 3. (Read 3829 times)

So your betting strategy is basically the definition of gamblers fallacy?  How would you expect us not to mention it?  There is no way you studied stats and came up with this, I studied stats for 1 year and I can tell you this is pretty much what you learn on day 1, "Are the events independent on one another or not"

In your case, they are not, so you are doing nothing with stats at all.

I think your strategic is bad and that you don't have any idea of what your are doing. In the long run it is impossible to make profit, because in 100 rolls you lose 51 and win 49, so you are losing money already, after 1000 more loss and in 10000 you will have lost everything you have.

I don't believe in any strategy regarding dice site an lucky person can with any strategy i am always go with 49.50% win with 2x payout and i like to play with that mostly i use for a session not to play for long term and take withdraw after done if i lose never try to recover and come with new deposit for next session other day so that i will advice keep believe in your self never try others strategy for winning on dice site.

But the roulette system is not 50%, its something like 48%, which is not good for this strategy.

I specifically said that this one works best in 50% games to maximize the odds for us.

I am testing a modified version now, and it might be ready soon

Thanks for sharing anyways.

These are nothing new though.... it's the same as the old double bet strategy on Roulette.

Good luck with your gambling

I never said that this method will guarantee you anything. Gambling is a game of luck, we all know that.

It's all based on luck and probabilities, and the probability of losing 30 times in a row is ultra unlikely, I would not expect that to happen even in 50 million bets, so we can say that its unlikely.

I choose then 20 because I was looking at 200,000 bets, but if that is also too much for you then you can lower that.

If you bet manually, say 200 times then you will likely stay below 10 consecutive heads/tails , and if you bet on 20, you might never reach that.

You should configure the strategy to what you use.

This method takes too long to win a little bit of satoshi and every bet is independent of the previous.
In theory, you can lose 30 times in a row and you cannot blame that the gambling site is rigged.

With 500,000 rolls the maximum loss I simulated was about 36%, and I won more times usually. In real life gambling I never even experienced a 10% loss ever since I use this strategy.

I depends on luck too, I dont deny that.




No I was explaining that the official explanation of the fallacy is short sided, its more to it just than the independent outcomes. Because the cluster is randomized too, so weather the odds are set to any amount, the distribution tends to follow the variance.

Or in other words , except a few black swans, the distribution is also contained to a local variance and it can be exploited to control risk better.

Example: if you flip a coin 100 times, the odds of being tails 10 times is 0.09765625%  and yet the 11th roll  is less likely to be tails, but not impossible.So eventually the heads have to come, so we can say that the local probability can vary wehereas the overally probability remains constant. Now this is no way a guarantee, because somehow the 12 consecutive tails have to come too, but then the local probabilities just reshuffle, randomly.

This is a common mathematical phenomena. I think its called local probability distribution:
http://pitt.edu/~druzdzel/psfiles/flairs06.pdf



Hey its random anyway, but you have to understand that based on odds, somebody can come out a net winner even after 100,000 rolls. It all depends on the local distribution , how it gets shuffled.

And those who are losers, at least lose less than they normally would with other strategies.

Guess what? They don't. It is human tendency to connect things that aren't.

Every single thing is distinct and it is impossible to accurately predict the next roll. There is no trend. No such rule that all rolls would be equally distributed either though you might assume they are.


Edit: To give clarity just check how SatoshiDice's provably fair system works. IIRC, they are just adding two random numbers and that is it.