It's weird that latest messages are a bit more like spam, it's a shame that spam is getting more and more common. However, back to talking about the pattern, that is definitely true and it will be exactly the same again if you ask me. I mean I have no proof, that's just my thought, I think that's what we will have, maybe I am right and maybe I am wrong I can't really say what's going to happen but I do believe that it could be quite good. I think it should be something that will benefit everyone. So, we should definitely look into it as important deal and could be considering the benefit as high as possible.
I believe that the best thing to do would be just hold our coins for now, if we can hold for now, for another 2 years or so, I believe that it will be way beyond ATH and make us a lot of profit. I think later stages of 2025 will be about 100k+ and then during 2026 we are going to have a major crash, it's good to have a pattern for ups, but always remember the downs too.
Topic: Did anyone notice this pattern? (Read 531 times)
Who's still not aware with such pattern?
There are so many influencers out there already create videos about Bitcoin ATH will happen in 2025, it's not mean I trust their words, but it's a sign such pattern is obvious. What if the bull run happen next 2 years after? no one know, but the highest possibility is a year after halving.
What those influencers out there, what they are saying is just a something that will make investors to go into the market and invest more funds and the more investors are coming into the market it's more bitcoin price is getting more promising or increasing in the market, so if altcoins influencers state positively about bitcoin especially the next bullrun, some people do because of social media predictions of bitcoin and get involved in purchasing more of bitcoin against the bullrun because they know that if market get positive above the price they purchased their coins they will make profit, so as I said before that social media influencers deceived many people to get into the market, secondly we are not supposed to depend on the information of social media influencers because I know quite well that social media information is like predictions of bitcoin.There are so many influencers out there already create videos about Bitcoin ATH will happen in 2025, it's not mean I trust their words, but it's a sign such pattern is obvious. What if the bull run happen next 2 years after? no one know, but the highest possibility is a year after halving.
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
New all time highs in the past usually occur 1 year or a little bit longer after a halving because halving is a stimulation for Bitcoin to appear more on media. It helps Bitcoin to be expose to more people and bring them as well as their capital to Bitcoin market.2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
It won't be seen after one night because people need time to research, have belief on something they hear of a first time, and surely need time for consideration before spending money to invest in Bitcoin. 1 year or 1.5 years, it is not too long but because you can not know where is the top, new all time high and even when it occurs, you can use past halving cycles and time needed to reach a new all time high for your plan to take profit in 2024 and 2025 bull run.
I paid $100 using Binance pay to a writer after checking the content it appeared AI generated. Is there a methods to claim a refund?
Sources:
https://pay.binance.com/en
https://easyaichecker.com/
Who's still not aware with such pattern?
There are so many influencers out there already create videos about Bitcoin ATH will happen in 2025, it's not mean I trust their words, but it's a sign such pattern is obvious. What if the bull run happen next 2 years after? no one know, but the highest possibility is a year after halving.
What those influencers out there, what they are saying is just a something that will make investors to go into the market and invest more funds and the more investors are coming into the market it's more bitcoin price is getting more promising or increasing in the market, so if altcoins influencers state positively about bitcoin especially the next bullrun, some people do because of social media predictions of bitcoin and get involved in purchasing more of bitcoin against the bullrun because they know that if market get positive above the price they purchased their coins they will make profit, so as I said before that social media influencers deceived many people to get into the market, secondly we are not supposed to depend on the information of social media influencers because I know quite well that social media information is like predictions of bitcoin. There are so many influencers out there already create videos about Bitcoin ATH will happen in 2025, it's not mean I trust their words, but it's a sign such pattern is obvious. What if the bull run happen next 2 years after? no one know, but the highest possibility is a year after halving.
There's a clear pattern behind bitcoin's rise and it always comes after a halving, and a massive news/desirable trend or update about bitcoin. First it was ICOs, and then DeFi, last 2020 NFTs took the stage, and in 2024 if we're to expect another ATH it's possible that we're going to experience another trend in the cryptocurrency world that will most definitely die off in the next couple of years, to be superceded by another more valuable trend in the future bull run. It's always been like that for cryptocurrencies, not that it's a bad thing mind you.
I don't expect bitcoin to right away shoot up in value after the halving comes, there has to be a new trend that would come around and it may even take the whole year before a massive change in bitcoin's price to even arrive.
I don't expect bitcoin to right away shoot up in value after the halving comes, there has to be a new trend that would come around and it may even take the whole year before a massive change in bitcoin's price to even arrive.
I think anyone noticing about the pattern the bull season of Bitcoin would be crazy since miner will get half portion of today reward and the newly minted coin will join circulation but not like previous year from now bitcoin will be scarce to get. Its like you mining gold but your pit is slowly not producing more gold.
I do believe this trend/pattern will continue until all bitcoin has been mined
Tho we still early guys - https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
I've seen the same rainbow chart but it has broken down the lines so I guess this is a new one but with a different range.I do believe this trend/pattern will continue until all bitcoin has been mined
Tho we still early guys - https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
The cycle has been always been followed and have been there every four years. But we don't know if the same trend and period of time when the bull run will enter.
It could be even earlier this time but we will about to see that next year.
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
Indeed for the last 3 halvings as you said all have relatively the same time and some people including some influencers also say that 2025 is most likely the next ATH but again, these are just some predictions that occur by looking at some pre-existing data but in the end we also cannot rely on this as a form of confidence that 2025 or mid-2026 could be ATH because it is only hope not certainty.
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
Indeed for the last 3 halvings as you said all have relatively the same time and some people including some influencers also say that 2025 is most likely the next ATH but again, these are just some predictions that occur by looking at some pre-existing data but in the end we also cannot rely on this as a form of confidence that 2025 or mid-2026 could be ATH because it is only hope not certainty.
You are kinda wrong about the 2020 halving.
If I remember this correctly, the Bitcoin price went up to 35K USD in the beginning of 2021, which is several months after the halving. 35K USD was the ATH price back then, but the price broke the record and increased to levels above 59K USD in the spring of 2021, which was the biggest ATH in the history of Bitcoin. You are counting only the highest ATH after the 2020 halving, not the ATH that was before it.
Yes, many people think that Bitcoin is moving in cycle and that there's a price pattern, but this pattern won't continue forever and we shouldn't rely on such predictions all the time. I also believe in a 2025 ATH, but there's no guarantee that it will happen.
That is the only thing people have at their hands and that's why they are doing something like this. There is no argument that they won't be able to do it, we should consider that as a possibility and should be making as much profit as we possibly could from whatever we can predict.If I remember this correctly, the Bitcoin price went up to 35K USD in the beginning of 2021, which is several months after the halving. 35K USD was the ATH price back then, but the price broke the record and increased to levels above 59K USD in the spring of 2021, which was the biggest ATH in the history of Bitcoin. You are counting only the highest ATH after the 2020 halving, not the ATH that was before it.
Yes, many people think that Bitcoin is moving in cycle and that there's a price pattern, but this pattern won't continue forever and we shouldn't rely on such predictions all the time. I also believe in a 2025 ATH, but there's no guarantee that it will happen.
I am not saying that all those predictions are right, but what is the other possibility, not trading at all? Just making up stuff? Sell or buy according whatever you feel like that day? None of that works, having a data historically is still better way to do than all those methods and that means we are going to end up with something that will profit people on the long term as well. If we are right, this is a good way to invest based on the past.
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I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
(...)
For me, even if we say yes, it's still not guaranteed especially since we can't identify or difficult to predict when it will happen, when we will experience that all-time high again. I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
(...)
There are a lot of things to consider now and basis, like volume we have now versus before, there are a lot of players right now versus before. There are a lot of people who have already been introduced to Bitcoin versus before.
So all-time high could be here very soon or maybe more time in the future, we don't know now.
Very well said unto this. Because first, anything can happen in the market. Yes from where is the price right now which is the starting point, and then the ATH which is the other end of the point. The uncertainty is in the middle which is how can we get there. Is there any deep retracement first before going higher? Is it going higher directly? We don't know exactly. That's the law of uncertainty in trading.
The good news is, as long as you have faith with your initial investment and the projects you are supporting then all the wait and that uncertainty will be worth it.
And one interesting aspect is that once traders are aware of that pattern now they can influence it, so if a lot of buying pressure is generated this could become a self-fulling prophecy, however if the buying pressure is not there it is possible many traders will take a position against it and the expected ATH may not happen at that date.
Now with that being said, at worst there could be a delay on the appearance of the ATH, but it will still appear, as I do not think the growth on the price of bitcoin can be contained for long.
Now with that being said, at worst there could be a delay on the appearance of the ATH, but it will still appear, as I do not think the growth on the price of bitcoin can be contained for long.
Well, in context I'm not sure if are you quoting my narrative point of ETF or OP's point of the pattern. But I think in both scenarios, traders are not dumb, they really carefully analyze the market according to sentiments and major developments as well as the FA & TA. As far as it is concerned the buying pressure on the hype of ETF.
The buying pressure is not gonna created by the experienced trades as till that time most likely they would have filled up their bags and done with accumulation before, this pressure will be created by the Institutional investment capital and the new comers are gonna be all in on FOMO. That is really interesting how far this narrative is gonna support Bitcoin in reaching the ATH, Hmm also be ready to expect of unexpected
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2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
This pattern cannot be disputed, but what is more interesting here is that, before the halving, you will have the option to purchase bitcoin at a price that is lower. It is more likely that it will not go beyond the price it was at the time of the halving. It may take a year or more for bitcoin to reach its new all-time high after halving, but if you can acquire it at a cheaper price, bitcoin achieving its new all-time high in one or more years will be in your advantage of a profitable outcome. This should not deter anyone who intends to accumulate bitcoin ahead of the halving and subsequently hitting the new ATH.
I have also read somewhere that this will be the highest halving in the recent time, which I consider as purely speculative.
The pattern noted by Op is verifiable and for it to happen in the past 3 halving, there is high tendency it will repeat this time around and that is the optimism of every bitcoiner.
Now, while your observations are fascinating, the dataset is dangerously small. You have three distinct instances and you're attempting to draw a consistent pattern from them? Thats supposition, not analysis. And believe me, in the world of crypto, speculation can be as dangerous as misinformation.
With so little information, your faith in the "law of averages" could easily mislead you and anyone else who reads into it. But there is an exception: if enough people buy into this idea and act on it, it could very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Simply because a lot of traders anticipate a response, the market might act approprpiately. Therefore, even though your hypothesis is unproven, if enough individuals accept it, it has the potential to influence market behavior. But keep in mind that this is still dangerous. Dont get too comfortable.
With so little information, your faith in the "law of averages" could easily mislead you and anyone else who reads into it. But there is an exception: if enough people buy into this idea and act on it, it could very well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Simply because a lot of traders anticipate a response, the market might act approprpiately. Therefore, even though your hypothesis is unproven, if enough individuals accept it, it has the potential to influence market behavior. But keep in mind that this is still dangerous. Dont get too comfortable.
there are rational reasons
many large mining farms do not audit thier costs/profit daily. instead they buy allotments of asics and electric contracts to last 2+ years. meaning they calculate cost vs earnings every 1-2 years(for tax and upgrade purposes).
many large mining farms do not audit thier costs/profit daily. instead they buy allotments of asics and electric contracts to last 2+ years. meaning they calculate cost vs earnings every 1-2 years(for tax and upgrade purposes).
Oh yeah, the large mining farms and ASIC owners of 2010 and 2014!
Definitely!
the other factor is that when halvings occur there is a rush of asic purchases. which is where people double up+ their hashrate to cling onto a comparable yield of rewards. this increase of hashrate and hardware also puts pressure on prices. again there is a delay
So, if:
John Alice and Dicky each have 10TH/s and they see the halving coming they each buy new gear in order to double...yelds...what???
Wait a minute!
If John had 10th/s which earned him 5$ at a cost of 2.$ , if he doubles the hashrate at the same cost as electricity isn't going to change in price he is going to make again 5$ but a ta cost of 4$, so how are this comparable yields?
Let's re-write this:
John Alice and Dicky had 30TH/s earning them 10$ at 3$ cost, now they are only earning 5$ at 3$ cost, they double their hashrate for a situation where they will have 60TH/s earning them 10$ but costing them 6$, so the only thing that comes clean out of this is that 10 years later and yous till don't know how mining works and it's again proof you've never run a business in your life!
Furthermore, in 2020 at the halving the hashrate was 115.27 EH/s, it took two years and five months till October 2020 for it to double at an average of 254.80 EH/s for the first time passing 230EH/s.
Write this down and repeat it every single time you have the opportunity, difficulty follows the price with a delay, the price never follows the difficulty!
You are kinda wrong about the 2020 halving.
If I remember this correctly, the Bitcoin price went up to 35K USD in the beginning of 2021, which is several months after the halving. 35K USD was the ATH price back then, but the price broke the record and increased to levels above 59K USD in the spring of 2021, which was the biggest ATH in the history of Bitcoin. You are counting only the highest ATH after the 2020 halving, not the ATH that was before it.
Yes, many people think that Bitcoin is moving in cycle and that there's a price pattern, but this pattern won't continue forever and we shouldn't rely on such predictions all the time. I also believe in a 2025 ATH, but there's no guarantee that it will happen.
If I remember this correctly, the Bitcoin price went up to 35K USD in the beginning of 2021, which is several months after the halving. 35K USD was the ATH price back then, but the price broke the record and increased to levels above 59K USD in the spring of 2021, which was the biggest ATH in the history of Bitcoin. You are counting only the highest ATH after the 2020 halving, not the ATH that was before it.
Yes, many people think that Bitcoin is moving in cycle and that there's a price pattern, but this pattern won't continue forever and we shouldn't rely on such predictions all the time. I also believe in a 2025 ATH, but there's no guarantee that it will happen.
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
This pattern is what everyone in crypto space are looking forward to. Majority of the people here knew it's going to be the post-halving where a new ATH will happen with an unprecedented range. I dont know if the law of averages can be applied in this kind of even, but it's more likely the market sentiments that's making a great impact to create this pattern. Pre-halving until the halving takes place is like an accumulation phase, then moving forward a few months the accumulation continues creating a gradual upward price movements, then a year after is where the bullrun officially starts.
This is what everybody is thinking and it’s what makes me question whether or not it will happen. Everyone expects bitcoin to make a new ATH shortly after the halving.
However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.
However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.
Everyone here is waiting for the Bitcoin bull season, and almost all bitcoin investors know the Bitcoin halving after which the price of Bitcoin often starts to rise. If everyone is expecting Bitcoin to hit an all-time high right after the halving,I don't think it can happen immediately. Anything can happen in the crypto currency market, but it has not happened before.If you look at the history of Bitcoin,and if you look at the graph he made, Bitcoin never reached its peak immediately after the halving, but rather later.
Although everyone is expecting Bitcoin to reach an all-time high before the halving, it is unlikely in my opinion. As the majority of experts are predicting a 2024/2025 bull season, it seems impossible for Bitcoin to do so before the halving. It takes a year after halving, but chances of more years are low, so we should wait patiently. We often make assumptions based on our analysis, but our assessments are not necessarily correct every time, but history should not be ignored.
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However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.
However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.
This hypothesis is also being discussed quite a bit on my local social networks. Many people think that when everyone knows and is waiting for the price to increase after halving to make a profit, who will buy bitcoin at a high price so we can take profit? I don't think the game will get easier and people will get rich so easily. But it's all just speculation and no one knows anything.
Personally, I still believe that history will repeat itself until we create new history. However, I always prepare myself for a historical scenario that will not repeat itself so that no matter what happens, I will not be surprised.
I think anyone noticing about the pattern the bull season of Bitcoin would be crazy since miner will get half portion of today reward and the newly minted coin will join circulation but not like previous year from now bitcoin will be scarce to get. Its like you mining gold but your pit is slowly not producing more gold.
I do believe this trend/pattern will continue until all bitcoin has been mined
Tho we still early guys - https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
I do believe this trend/pattern will continue until all bitcoin has been mined
Tho we still early guys - https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/
As per the replies, most of you guys did agree with the pattern. Does that mean we would see a bull run after approximately 1.3 years from halving? The current situation of Bitcoin ETFs and Elon Musk's tweet about Bitcoin might act as a catalyst to the bull run. I suspect that if it had to start it would have been now. What I firmly believe is that a bull run after the next halving would take place after 2 years. The current global economic situation does not make that ecosystem, to see Bitcoin breaking a new ATH in just 1 year or 1.3 years time after the halving. Do you guys agree with my point of view? If not then I would know the reason.
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
Bull season and ATH always appear 1 year or more after halving. That means we will have a sideways market after the halving but what I see people expecting more is that people are expecting bitcoin to increase in price immediately when the halving happens. Many people even think that when the halving is approaching, bitcoin will not be able to decrease any further and people will buy more, so the bitcoin price will soon recover and increase in price as soon as the halving takes place. This is the wrong thinking that many people are making. The future is unpredictable, but if we look to the past, we can see that bull season is still quite far away.
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