This is what everybody is thinking and it’s what makes me question whether or not it will happen. Everyone expects bitcoin to make a new ATH shortly after the halving.
However since everybody is expecting this then there is a greater chance that it will just either go to ATH before halving or don’t reach ATH for many years after. This pattern is just becoming way too common.
Topic: Did anyone notice this pattern? - page 2. (Read 531 times)
Let's talk about differences.
2013 brought us 2 all time highs in one year with something like 8 months between them and then the biggest exchange went bankrupt and crashed the price.
2017 was cut short by bitcoin futures opening and speculators betting against bitcoin to crash it.
2020 faced Chinese mining ban which reduced the price of bitcoin by 50% from 60 to 30k.
Bitcoin works like a sophisticated mechanism so people think it's repeating pattern of blocks and halvings will make the price act the same way every time, but it doesn't.
Every time something different happens but this event stops Bitcoin from pushing higher and staying in the FOMO phase for too long. Usually it's just weeks and then somebody does something to stop it.
2013 brought us 2 all time highs in one year with something like 8 months between them and then the biggest exchange went bankrupt and crashed the price.
2017 was cut short by bitcoin futures opening and speculators betting against bitcoin to crash it.
2020 faced Chinese mining ban which reduced the price of bitcoin by 50% from 60 to 30k.
Bitcoin works like a sophisticated mechanism so people think it's repeating pattern of blocks and halvings will make the price act the same way every time, but it doesn't.
Every time something different happens but this event stops Bitcoin from pushing higher and staying in the FOMO phase for too long. Usually it's just weeks and then somebody does something to stop it.
Although I don't discount the possibility that regular halving events have more or less significant effects on the price, it could indeed be true that the price is actually just moving up and down according to certain factors which are mostly external.
If we remove halving, how would the charts look like? It is possible that they would look almost exactly the same. The price rises, falls, consolidates, recovers, reaches an ATH, corrects, and so on and so forth with or without the halving. We put the halving schedules there and so it seems they play a significant role.
But what if 3 years after the halving next year, the US suddenly announces that Bitcoin is certified as a legal tender? Would it not create an ATH and break the pattern? Or what if months before the next halving, the SEC approves all Bitcoin spot ETF applications? Would it not be an external factor big enough to create an ATH and, again, surprise everybody who put too much weight on such pattern? Or what if 1-2 years after the halving, the US declared Bitcoin as illegal and everybody who is found using it shall be penalized? Would there still be a new ATH?
That is also what we are speculating for as again history repeats itself. That is why we are accumulating bitcoin right now because we do hope that the new ATH will happen again.
It is not guaranteed that it will happen again because what if it doesn't happen after halving which is the first time in history that it won't reach its price? But because of the adoption of the country right now we can really see that it will happen sooner.
It is not guaranteed that it will happen again because what if it doesn't happen after halving which is the first time in history that it won't reach its price? But because of the adoption of the country right now we can really see that it will happen sooner.
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You are basically doing TA without using charts. The problem with TA is that it may never replicate the past events. It is like playing coin flipping. Just because you got tails 99 times in a row, doesn’t mean that it will be tails again in the 100th game. On the other hand we also know that history doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. Maybe this time there will be another ATH but it won’t happen in 1.5 years… maybe this time it will take 3 years… The real question is, what will you do if there isn’t a new ath for the next 3 years? Will you give up and sell or will you hodl? TA is like writing a story book and then actually believing that it is real.
It is as you say. I'm sick and tired of seeing past analyses of this style that break down at the next event. Even in this cycle ATH's predictions were much higher based on a repetition of price behaviour in past cycles. And all the predictions failed. Now as in this cycle the ATH has been much lower than in the previous cycle we have to intrude that variable and expect a more moderate return for the next one.
Regarding the halvings, as you say, the same thing. The OP takes an average of only 3 data. If the next cycle the ATH occurs 6 months after the halving or after 2 years or not at all, it will break the 1.3 year average to get a new ATH.
I suppose one could argue that with 2020 halving, a new ATH was reached earlier than 1.5 years after the event if you consider the time of peaking above the previous ATH point and not the eventual total peak before the bear market. But it's possible to look at it from your point of view and see this pattern as well. Of course, just 3 times isn't enough to say it's a regularity, but since we've got nothing left apart from a pretty short Bitcoin history, it makes sense to try to base our guesses on that data. But if the new ATH is reached around a year and a half after halving, that doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't recover earlier because it can reach a bit over the previous ATH significantly earlier even based on historical data, as it did only 7 months after halving of 2020.
And china tore the heart out of the 2021 April move by shutting down 50% of the worlds hash.
So I would argue like you may 2020 to April 2021 is 11 months and that the cycle was broken by outside forces (China).
BTC seems to get ½ ing price shock in about 4 year cycle based on the ½ ing
So I would say
dec 2012 ½ ing
nov 2013 ath
may 2016 ½ ing
dec 2017 ath
may 2020 ½ ing
April 2021 ath
which does not match the op but does match reality closer
OP I think most of us are really familiar with such patterns as we used to observe such sorts of seasonal posts on social media, But what's so eye-catching in it is it cant really change the current market sentiments except for bringing a bit of motivation to the newbies (for that as well I'm not sure will it work or not). The time cant be predicted exactly but we can judge the season according to the sentiments.
Even these stats are not evident in their consistency, such patterns are just used to shape the timeline for the exact speculation we cant just realize on the, even the efficient speculation for ATH is not possible all goes with the hype & sentiments (Latest developments that time), mostly narratives provide the base to every ATH cycle currently the most promising narrative close to me is ETF approvals but it may really change with the passage of time, or may not.
And one interesting aspect is that once traders are aware of that pattern now they can influence it, so if a lot of buying pressure is generated this could become a self-fulling prophecy, however if the buying pressure is not there it is possible many traders will take a position against it and the expected ATH may not happen at that date.Even these stats are not evident in their consistency, such patterns are just used to shape the timeline for the exact speculation we cant just realize on the, even the efficient speculation for ATH is not possible all goes with the hype & sentiments (Latest developments that time), mostly narratives provide the base to every ATH cycle currently the most promising narrative close to me is ETF approvals but it may really change with the passage of time, or may not.
Now with that being said, at worst there could be a delay on the appearance of the ATH, but it will still appear, as I do not think the growth on the price of bitcoin can be contained for long.
I am excited with OP discussing and seems will be true for upcoming halving time, its not instant progress raising all new high time for several kinds altcoin or Bitcoin its self and need time almost one year above for making new ATH. Since last three halving Bitcoin edition looks correct and possibility upcoming halving few months later will the same happening last halving edition or not? How possibility for new all time high price of bitcoin will raise up one year later or keep going without waiting longer time after halving bitcoin is coming.
Not only with tradition of halving only but also we have check with pattern and other potential from inside or outside to make Bitcoin will raise higher price or keep going down during have coming time with halving.
Not only with tradition of halving only but also we have check with pattern and other potential from inside or outside to make Bitcoin will raise higher price or keep going down during have coming time with halving.
(....)
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
(...)
For me, even if we say yes, it's still not guaranteed especially since we can't identify or difficult to predict when it will happen, when we will experience that all-time high again. I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
(...)
There are a lot of things to consider now and basis, like volume we have now versus before, there are a lot of players right now versus before. There are a lot of people who have already been introduced to Bitcoin versus before.
So all-time high could be here very soon or maybe more time in the future, we don't know now.
If this cycle indeed materializes, it would pose a significant challenge to market manipulators. A pump to all-time high (ATH) prices should ideally occur without any follow-through momentum. In other words, the more speculation that arises, the stronger the opposing force will be to thwart their expectations and minimize losses caused by manipulators.
When the market genuinely gravitates towards the majority of speculators, it becomes a massive giveaway for Bitcoin holders. However, if the market doesn't align with the speculators, the likelihood of alternative plans being devised by insiders is a distinct possibility.
When the market genuinely gravitates towards the majority of speculators, it becomes a massive giveaway for Bitcoin holders. However, if the market doesn't align with the speculators, the likelihood of alternative plans being devised by insiders is a distinct possibility.
The pattern detected in the timing for the new ATH is a mathematical logic which is relating various sets of data one to the other, while the number of years needed for the new ATH is proportional to many other factors. For example, the trend of 1 to 1.5 years may have been marked by the market Cap and other factors like new adoptions. I see a pattern has frequent repetition of an element in a set of data as a response to the changing factors in the system in which the pattern is observed. Absolutely, there is a repeating pattern here with respect to the new ATH, but the timing will always depend on the factors that controls the pattern. And that is predictable if one is able to apply an algorithm that can consider majority of the factors in order to make a forecast. The pattern will still be correct when we have mass adoption and the price become stable, I mean when the speculation is gone and bitcoin got the mass adoption.
So based on the patterns you just identified the new Bitcoin ATH would potentially occur around April 2014 plus 1.2 to 1.5 years, which would place it in the third or fourth quarter of 2025. However, it's important to know that while this prediction is possible, it's also couldn't happen because we cannot accurately predict the future of Bitcoin.
The law of averages could indeed come into play as expected but there's always the possibility of unexpected market events during this time frame that could disrupt these patterns.
The law of averages could indeed come into play as expected but there's always the possibility of unexpected market events during this time frame that could disrupt these patterns.
This might sound unreal but Bitcoin takes approximately 1.3 years to get to a new ATH. if we consider the halving dates and then check the new ATH, as an average it concludes. I am not speculating anything as it is a simple calculation of the average. just take a look:
Your approximation is correct when we see the past ATH's but we not yet aware about the coming ATH and it could take place after halving for sure but still we can't determine an exact date for that event. I'm sure that after the halving event Bitcoin's price will continue to gain some momentum and it will continue to grow to good levels within short duration, but still it's next ATH is expected around 2024's last quarter to 2025's last quarter.
Yes, we can't say that the ATH will happen in 2025's first quarter because that predication will most probably be inaccurate. But, surely it will happen within 2 years after halving and once we see next ATH then once again we may see another bear market. The simplest reason that why Bitcoin reaches its ATH is when new people learn about it and they invest in it and when media or influencers promote it. Those type of promotions will be common after the halving event and people will once again invest a lot of money in whole crypto market to gain profits.
This might sound unreal but Bitcoin takes approximately 1.3 years to get to a new ATH. if we consider the halving dates and then check the new ATH, as an average it concludes. I am not speculating anything as it is a simple calculation of the average. just take a look:
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
there are rational reasons
many large mining farms do not audit thier costs/profit daily. instead they buy allotments of asics and electric contracts to last 2+ years. meaning they calculate cost vs earnings every 1-2 years(for tax and upgrade purposes). thus even though a halving changes the reward earned. the asic farms are not adjusting their price/value until their year-end audit when its time to file for taxes or upgrade hardware reaching its end-of-life.. thus they wont raise their prices until a year later when its time to shuffle funds about
the other factor is that when halvings occur there is a rush of asic purchases. which is where people double up+ their hashrate to cling onto a comparable yield of rewards. this increase of hashrate and hardware also puts pressure on prices. again there is a delay
but yes in short the pattern has real reasons.
however
now many are aware of the pattern, speculative traders are preparing for such occurrences and so by knowing a trading pattern can cause speculators to trade against the pattern to cause the pattern to change
Let's talk about differences.
2013 brought us 2 all time highs in one year with something like 8 months between them and then the biggest exchange went bankrupt and crashed the price.
2017 was cut short by bitcoin futures opening and speculators betting against bitcoin to crash it.
2020 faced Chinese mining ban which reduced the price of bitcoin by 50% from 60 to 30k.
Bitcoin works like a sophisticated mechanism so people think it's repeating pattern of blocks and halvings will make the price act the same way every time, but it doesn't.
Every time something different happens but this event stops Bitcoin from pushing higher and staying in the FOMO phase for too long. Usually it's just weeks and then somebody does something to stop it.
2013 brought us 2 all time highs in one year with something like 8 months between them and then the biggest exchange went bankrupt and crashed the price.
2017 was cut short by bitcoin futures opening and speculators betting against bitcoin to crash it.
2020 faced Chinese mining ban which reduced the price of bitcoin by 50% from 60 to 30k.
Bitcoin works like a sophisticated mechanism so people think it's repeating pattern of blocks and halvings will make the price act the same way every time, but it doesn't.
Every time something different happens but this event stops Bitcoin from pushing higher and staying in the FOMO phase for too long. Usually it's just weeks and then somebody does something to stop it.
I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?
I understand your excitement, but yes, I was aware of this pattern, even though I have used this information to reply to many questions here on BTT. If you would use the ninjastic tool then you will find them. The thing is, we can not use the law of average here, because ATH of BTC is not fixed and depends on many factors. As we all know BTC is decentralized and open source and is not pegged or backed by any assets. That's why it only depends on the demand and supply factors. Of course, it depends on many other factors too but the main factor is D and S. I hope you will understand my point here.
I also got excited when I came to know about this information, which I did due to some topics here on BTT. And from then whenever I have to say something about Halving, I try to mention the dates of ATH too. But to be honest, I thought that, the ATH after first halving took around 6 to 8 months. But according to your information, it did not take 6 to 8 months.
The ROI, if anyone had bought Bitcoin before 2011 was 100x approximately from 2012 to 2016. if you bought Bitcoin in 2015 it would be 7X approximately in November of 2021. My math can be wrong and I am open to criticism about it.
in 2011 you were buying for something like 2 dollars so your 100x is 200 dollars. You could have that in Spring of 2013. Later that year the price reached 1000 (500x)
2015 was about 700 dollars. 7x would be close to 5000 so that's your 7x ROI reached in 2017.
Yes your math is off by a lot.
Quote
2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
This doesn't mean anything.
This pattern could repeat but doesn't have to because what changes is the number of bitcoin users who learn from their mistakes. Knowing the halving brings ATH they will surely start investing much sooner this time and that could either lead to the longest bull run ever or to a short one that starts early and finishes early.
OP I think most of us are really familiar with such patterns as we used to observe such sorts of seasonal posts on social media, But what's so eye-catching in it is it cant really change the current market sentiments except for bringing a bit of motivation to the newbies (for that as well I'm not sure will it work or not). The time cant be predicted exactly but we can judge the season according to the sentiments.
Even these stats are not evident in their consistency, such patterns are just used to shape the timeline for the exact speculation we cant just realize on the, even the efficient speculation for ATH is not possible all goes with the hype & sentiments (Latest developments that time), mostly narratives provide the base to every ATH cycle currently the most promising narrative close to me is ETF approvals but it may really change with the passage of time, or may not.
Even these stats are not evident in their consistency, such patterns are just used to shape the timeline for the exact speculation we cant just realize on the, even the efficient speculation for ATH is not possible all goes with the hype & sentiments (Latest developments that time), mostly narratives provide the base to every ATH cycle currently the most promising narrative close to me is ETF approvals but it may really change with the passage of time, or may not.
You are basically doing TA without using charts. The problem with TA is that it may never replicate the past events. It is like playing coin flipping. Just because you got tails 99 times in a row, doesn’t mean that it will be tails again in the 100th game. On the other hand we also know that history doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. Maybe this time there will be another ATH but it won’t happen in 1.5 years… maybe this time it will take 3 years… The real question is, what will you do if there isn’t a new ath for the next 3 years? Will you give up and sell or will you hodl? TA is like writing a story book and then actually believing that it is real.
Already observing that pattern that always concludes a lot after halving then bitcoin will ATH in the range of 1-1.5 years this guess is not just one but many have been issued by several influential people, so although my speculation is a little bit leading to it but not too concerned with this pattern now.
I just need to focus on filling the bag before the preparation starts, maybe that's a better step than thinking about this pattern because it has no meaning for now.
Some are definitely waiting for the halving to happen and waiting for a while, they believe more in the end of 2024 or 2025 I'm not sure, with that pattern I guess there are still those who think the same.
I just need to focus on filling the bag before the preparation starts, maybe that's a better step than thinking about this pattern because it has no meaning for now.
Some are definitely waiting for the halving to happen and waiting for a while, they believe more in the end of 2024 or 2025 I'm not sure, with that pattern I guess there are still those who think the same.
Slow to the station, OP. Talked about often in these parts, hence the rubbishing by some (yours truly included) that this year or even next is the rally and ensuing bull run. Hey, plenty of time to fill those bags.
Completely arbitrary perhaps but I always feel that the halving effects are only realised later, even with pricing in, perhaps game theory dawns a bit after the fact, and the usual sheeple media piping it on months after it happens.
Completely arbitrary perhaps but I always feel that the halving effects are only realised later, even with pricing in, perhaps game theory dawns a bit after the fact, and the usual sheeple media piping it on months after it happens.
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