Topic: Did anyone notice this pattern? - page 3. (Read 582 times)

I agree with your stated points, Yes if this had occurred more than 3 times it would have been a reason to try to rely on this fact that the OP has pinpointed out on the thread,  however, on the other hand, I tend to agree with the OP because Bitcoin tends to follow some historical patterns in the past and likely we might see or get this scenario play out, but let's keep it on a watchlist.

You are correct in being cautious when it comes to predicting future price of Bitcoin or its all time high (ATH) as well as market trend. The idea that ATH tends to occur in a year following a Bitcoin halving event may appear probable based on historical trends, but there is no guarantee as Bitcoin always surprises us with unpredicted moves, which is its inherent nature.

I believe the condition of the global economy in 2024  will play crucial role in determining the timing of Bitcoin's all time high (ATH) event.

That pattern ain't a secret anymore. That's why we've got the so-called '4-year cycle' and from that cycle, that's how the market turns into a bull run after coming from a terrible bear market. But if there's another halving and bull run that's to be expected, 2021 was different from the past bull runs and that's why we might also see another different bull run approximately on 2025.

We're all speculating and you know what's the beauty of this market? Every law or theory that we believe that's gonna work to Bitcoin can be applied depending on the situation.

This pattern cannot be disputed, but what is more interesting here is that, before the halving, you will have the option to purchase bitcoin at a price that is lower.  It is more likely that it will not go beyond the price it was at the time of the halving. It may take a year or more for bitcoin to reach its new all-time high after halving, but if you can acquire it at a cheaper price, bitcoin achieving its new all-time high in one or more years will be in your advantage of a profitable outcome. This should not deter anyone who intends to accumulate bitcoin ahead of the halving and subsequently hitting the new ATH.

Reaching ATH is basically speculation, and your calculations are only about anything more specific than price.
I also noticed that pattern as a conclusion to my predictions, but that again would not contain any accuracy because ATH is not a cycle. Several major scenarios can further influence future pattern changes.

I suppose one could argue that with 2020 halving, a new ATH was reached earlier than 1.5 years after the event if you consider the time of peaking above the previous ATH point and not the eventual total peak before the bear market. But it's possible to look at it from your point of view and see this pattern as well. Of course, just 3 times isn't enough to say it's a regularity, but since we've got nothing left apart from a pretty short Bitcoin history, it makes sense to try to base our guesses on that data. But if the new ATH is reached around a year and a half after halving, that doesn't mean that Bitcoin won't recover earlier because it can reach a bit over the previous ATH significantly earlier even based on historical data, as it did only 7 months after halving of 2020.

Who's still not aware with such pattern?

There are so many influencers out there already create videos about Bitcoin ATH will happen in 2025, it's not mean I trust their words, but it's a sign such pattern is obvious. What if the bull run happen next 2 years after? no one know, but the highest possibility is a year after halving.

New all time highs in the past usually occur 1 year or a little bit longer after a halving because halving is a stimulation for Bitcoin to appear more on media. It helps Bitcoin to be expose to more people and bring them as well as their capital to Bitcoin market.

It won't be seen after one night because people need time to research, have belief on something they hear of a first time, and surely need time for consideration before spending money to invest in Bitcoin. 1 year or 1.5 years, it is not too long but because you can not know where is the top, new all time high and even when it occurs, you can use past halving cycles and time needed to reach a new all time high for your plan to take profit in 2024 and 2025 bull run.

I was trying to find a certain date for the actual halving event as a stupid fool. I noticed that the date changes, as it all depends on the blocks. At the moment it is due in the month of March, earlier it was in the month of May next year. The next thing I did was to check the ROI of Bitcoin after every halving. The ROI, if anyone had bought Bitcoin before 2011 was 100x approximately from 2012 to 2016. if you bought Bitcoin in 2015 it would be 7X approximately in November of 2021. My math can be wrong and I am open to criticism about it.

Continuing with what I discovered, I saw a pattern while trying to find my actual objective. It is a pattern that might determine when Bitcoin will get a new ATH.

This might sound unreal but Bitcoin takes approximately 1.3 years to get to a new ATH. if we consider the halving dates and then check the new ATH, as an average it concludes. I am not speculating anything as it is a simple calculation of the average. just take a look:

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?