Diff contest Aug 9 to Aug?.Prize a black sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. - page 3.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: leowonderful on August 27, 2017, 09:19:41 PM

This will be one spectacular drop if it's even more than 20%. Never thought I'd see the day this happens, difficulty will probably keep increasing as it was once BCH profitability lowers and if EDA is modified but 2X could be yet another alt causing difficulty drops. Don't know about you guys, but if this format continues difficulty contests will be like finding a nail in an even larger haystack than before.

I think I will suspend it this time.

I have a trezor and then 1ltc+a compac for two prizes.

But the work needed to keep track would be a lot.

viabtc.com claims

Network HashRate 7271 P for btc

Network HashRate 615 P for bcc/bch

The math comes to

482293 (Main Chain) 2017-08-28 01:52:08
481824 (Main Chain) 2017-08-24 01:57:37

so 469 blocks in 96 hours

should be 576 blocks in 96 hours

469/576 = 81.4% which is a 18.6% drop so a big shift back to btc.

but so far we know the shift can happen tomorrow and bcc could be at 3700p with btc at 4400p .. I will do a suspension of the contest for one adjustment as I want bitcoinwisdom to work again to help with picking

leowonderful

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1129

Bitcoin FTW!

This will be one spectacular drop if it's even more than 20%. Never thought I'd see the day this happens, difficulty will probably keep increasing as it was once BCH profitability lowers and if EDA is modified but 2X could be yet another alt causing difficulty drops. Don't know about you guys, but if this format continues difficulty contests will be like finding a nail in an even larger haystack than before.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

I am having trouble with exact block the new diff started at.

https://bitcoincharts.com/

this claims block 481824 was first block of new diff

Blocks   481823
Total BTC   16.523M

Difficulty   923233068449
Estimated   887736944047 in 1 blks

Network total   7983858.406 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.25 / 497 s

if true

482085 (Main Chain)   2017-08-26 16:27:59
481824 (Main Chain)   2017-08-24 01:57:37

261 blocks made in 24 + 24 + 14.5 hours

261/60.5 = 4.314 blocks an hour vs 6

4.314/6

71.9 %

or a 28.1% drop at the 261 block number

so we know the hash is at bcc/bch and can shift back

but a 28.1% drop in diff and price of coin over 4100 usd for btc would be a nice gain for miners

Last of the V8s

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 4392

Be a bank

https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/difficulty/5y?t=l
dunno if accurate

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Yeah and on Aug 24th 1:58 am we were at block 2016

So 24 + 24 + 10 = 58 hours

so 257/58 = 4.43 blocks an hour vs 6

or 73.8% that means -26.2%

I need to check the time span better

block 482093 was at 2017 8 - 26 - 16:04

block 481834 was at 2017 8 - 24 - 04:49

that is 24 + 24 + 11 = 59.25 not 58 as I guessed at above

so 257/59.25 = 4.337 blocks an hour vs 6

which is 72.29%

or a 27.71% drop

freaking amazing!

now we are only 257 blocks in.

and the hash is on BCC/BCH it can flip back here at any time.

So the 27.71% drop can move up fast.

I could be off just a bit as I think the new diff started at block 481834 if someone knows this to be wrong or true please let me know.

TheYankeesWin!

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 300

We can do a manual figure .

2016
1757

259 blocks New York Yankee time is 12:15 Pm

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Landy1264 on August 25, 2017, 08:47:08 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 25, 2017, 08:22:24 AM

Quote from: Landy1264 on August 25, 2017, 03:28:09 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 24, 2017, 08:16:00 PM

would be nice to see current diff number

Diff is @ 888,171,856,257.32

So how do I track current diff? any one have a link to a current diff tracker?

Try this: http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

We have this for current numbers we are at block 1757

QuintLeo

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1030

It would be nice if the bitcoinwisdom guy would update his website - he seems to have largely ignored it most of the last year and some, and the "freezeups" are getting irritating.

Seems like quite a few folks have been "bouncing" between BTC and BCC the last few days, since BCC price went up enough to be competative on profitability, per https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days

Unfortunately, that chart doesn't track diff, but https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty does.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Landy1264 on August 25, 2017, 08:47:08 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 25, 2017, 08:22:24 AM

Quote from: Landy1264 on August 25, 2017, 03:28:09 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 24, 2017, 08:16:00 PM

would be nice to see current diff number

Diff is @ 888,171,856,257.32

So how do I track current diff? any one have a link to a current diff tracker?

Try this: http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

good it works and we are looking at a 20% drop in the diff! but switching is easy look at the hash on viabtc

6600p is close to the baseline or a 0% change

at 4300 for btc
at 3800 for bcc/bch

a drop from 6600p to 4300p = more then 33% drop.

if btc goes lower hash then bcc/bch we will no long have alt coins since every coin will be an alt coin. we would just have cryptocoins just definitions as I see it.

Landy1264

member

Activity: 115

Merit: 10

Tip: 1JBSwRgm7iMzc7uyhnJdxH7hSECdJkdMoj

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 25, 2017, 08:22:24 AM

Quote from: Landy1264 on August 25, 2017, 03:28:09 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 24, 2017, 08:16:00 PM

would be nice to see current diff number

Diff is @ 888,171,856,257.32

So how do I track current diff? any one have a link to a current diff tracker?

Try this: http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: Landy1264 on August 25, 2017, 03:28:09 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 24, 2017, 08:16:00 PM

would be nice to see current diff number

Diff is @ 888,171,856,257.32

So how do I track current diff? any one have a link to a current diff tracker?

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Aug 09 2017   923,233,068,449   7.32%   6,608,759,726 GH/s
Jul 27 2017   860,221,984,436   6.92%   6,157,708,817 GH/s
Jul 14 2017   804,525,194,568   13.53%   5,759,015,666 GH/s
Jul 02 2017   708,659,466,230   -0.43%   5,072,782,052 GH/s
Jun 17 2017   711,697,198,174   4.85%   5,094,526,985 GH/s
Jun 04 2017   678,760,110,083   13.90%   4,858,754,124 GH/s

we are back to Jun 4 diff numbers according to viabtc!!

I smell something rotten

look at this below:

Quote from: ?? on ??

There is something going on in the world of btc being done at big levels.

I see btc diff dropping more then 20%

hashrate is about 6,700,000,000 for the current diff of close to 886,000,000,000

I can do longer find current diff numbers live time

and current hash rate according to viabtc is at 4,700,000,000
Why are the live time diff trackers off line?

Landy1264

member

Activity: 115

Merit: 10

Tip: 1JBSwRgm7iMzc7uyhnJdxH7hSECdJkdMoj

Quote from: philipma1957 on August 24, 2017, 08:16:00 PM

would be nice to see current diff number

Diff is @ 888,171,856,257.32

edonkey

legendary

Activity: 1150

Merit: 1004

Quote from: QuintLeo on August 24, 2017, 07:58:32 PM

Nothing new there, just a bit bigger for now ('till BCH attention span dies down to the level of all of the other SHA256 based coins).

Sure there have always been other SHA256 coins, but they've only amounted to a tiny bit of noise on the Bitcoin signal.

You have to admit that the scale here with BCH is unprecedented. Even Garza's Paycoin (everyone here remember that scam?) didn't have this effect on the difficulty of the main chain.

That said, I agree that BCH will wain. It has no value except for speculation and cyclical mining profits (for the moment). IMHO, BCH is just Bitmain enabling the big block true believer bag holders. Guess who wins in that scenario?

If the 2x hard fork actually happens, then we will see the original Bitcoin verses two speculative alts. If BCH hasn't already tanked, it will at least have to share the remaining table scraps with the new 2x alt. Sure, 2x wasn't designed to enable miner manipulation, so Bitmain won't support it. But 2x is sure to to have a speculative following of some sort.

Regardless, competition among the alts that have no real economic reason for being will help dilute them both.

I suspect that come the new year, none of this will matter. Miners will for the most part return to the original Bitcoin, and the forks will flounder. A year from now the forks probably won't even be in the top ten.

leowonderful

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1129

Bitcoin FTW!

Quote from: fr4nkthetank on August 24, 2017, 08:35:58 PM

And bitcoin's price is up, up and away (hopefully). Im confused as to what Bitcoin cash...will do...arent we heading towards a hard fork ? so 3 coins. Where does that leave BCH ?

Well, as of now BCH is just a trader and speculator's toy to mess around with and a miner's dream for more profit. 2X will be another fork like you said and it could have a more drastic effect on BTC's price (and possibly mining if it uses another BCH-like difficulty model). Only time can tell at this point, but from what I can tell 2X won't be too pleasant.

fr4nkthetank

legendary

Activity: 2294

Merit: 1182

Now the money is free, and so the people will be

And bitcoin's price is up, up and away (hopefully). Im confused as to what Bitcoin cash...will do...arent we heading towards a hard fork ? so 3 coins. Where does that leave BCH ?

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: QuintLeo on August 24, 2017, 07:58:32 PM

Nothing new there, just a bit bigger for now ('till BCH attention span dies down to the level of all of the other SHA256 based coins).

https://pool.viabtc.com/

BTC
Network HashRate

5145 P

BCC

Network HashRate

2838 P

btc is down 20%

no one is giving current diff numbers

we only have the numbers above from viabtc.com site

would be nice to see current diff number

QuintLeo

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1030

Nothing new there, just a bit bigger for now ('till BCH attention span dies down to the level of all of the other SHA256 based coins).

edonkey

legendary

Activity: 1150

Merit: 1004

Ack! I (or rather our cats) thought this was hard before BCH. Now we have to also predict the swing of the hash rate pendulum.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4172

Merit: 8075

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: VRobb on August 23, 2017, 11:29:35 PM

Sheesh, looks like bitcoin "wisdom" is stuck again. 1.6 hours and counting...! Tongue

Bitcoin Difficulty:923,233,068,449
Estimated Next Difficulty:886,978,918,154 (-3.93%)
Adjust time:After 1 Blocks, About 10.3 minutes
Hashrate(?):5,658,924,901 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):

1 block: 10.3 minutes

3 blocks: 30.9 minutes

6 blocks: 1.0 hours

Updated:18:55 (1.6 hours ago)

I guess the -3.93% is correct though?

Yes for 1 block left it was correct .

We hit the next block about 10 minutes later so. Somewhere between -3.8 and - 4.1

Since the closest pick to that was -3.0 I think there was no winner.

VRobb

hero member

Activity: 1610

Merit: 538

I'm in BTC XTC

Sheesh, looks like bitcoin "wisdom" is stuck again. 1.6 hours and counting...! Tongue

Bitcoin Difficulty:923,233,068,449
Estimated Next Difficulty:886,978,918,154 (-3.93%)
Adjust time:After 1 Blocks, About 10.3 minutes
Hashrate(?):5,658,924,901 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):

1 block: 10.3 minutes

3 blocks: 30.9 minutes

6 blocks: 1.0 hours

Updated:18:55 (1.6 hours ago)

I guess the -3.93% is correct though?

Topic: Diff contest Aug 9 to Aug?.Prize a black sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed. - page 3. (Read 7268 times)