Topic: Diff thread Apr 28 to May 12? picks are closed!!.... prize = 0.30 btc - page 7. (Read 6640 times)
May 02, 2016, 07:43:47 AM
Gonna go for -0.5 this time
May 02, 2016, 07:02:39 AM
Picks are now open!
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty: 178,525,027,676 (-0.08%) >>>>>>>> We are at +3.5% this is real time
Adjust time: After 1392 Blocks, About 9.5 days <<<<< they will close at 816
Hashrate(?): 1,388,110,052 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.4 minutes
6 blocks: 58.9 minutes
Updated: 7:55 (5.2 minutes ago)
As usual my pick is:
-1.2 = philipma1957 >>>> if I hit I will roll it back in
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty: 178,525,027,676 (-0.08%) >>>>>>>> We are at +3.5% this is real time
Adjust time: After 1392 Blocks, About 9.5 days <<<<< they will close at 816
Hashrate(?): 1,388,110,052 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.4 minutes
6 blocks: 58.9 minutes
Updated: 7:55 (5.2 minutes ago)
As usual my pick is:
-1.2 = philipma1957 >>>> if I hit I will roll it back in
May 02, 2016, 01:10:29 AM
Yesterday was +7.64% with 155 Blocks, we seem to be settling into a +4% to 5% band at the moment. Picks should be open in a couple of Hours time, good luck to everyone...
Rich
Rich
May 02, 2016, 12:26:21 AM
It seems to have happened time and time again I think it is not that as much as some kind of power deal with short term but high use contracts
If they do employ some sort of contract then they have full control over when and for how long the hash is deployed, it certainly isn't getting turned on and off at random times.Sure screws up the guessing game, though.
May 01, 2016, 11:28:14 PM
So are we seeing some kind of deliberate pattern where say 100PH gets switched on shortly after the adjustment, and left to run for 5-6 days, and then switched off in the hopes that the overall difficulty doesn't rise to much for the next adjustment? During the 5-6 days they get a larger share of the pie, but don't have to pay the price with a higher difficulty later on?
I can't figure out if the math would work for that, or if we are trying to find something that isn't actually there.
Most interesting speculation.
I can't figure out if the math would work for that, or if we are trying to find something that isn't actually there.
Most interesting speculation.
It seems to have happened time and time again I think it is not that as much as some kind of power deal with short term but high use contracts
Say a 1 cent 30 mega watt contract for 2 or 3 or 5 days.
You could have a few farms with all s-5s. Scattered about China .
Cut a deal for a penny and the s-5 makes good money.
We all have seen photos of Chinese ghost cities.
So why not put three or four or five farms in with older gear cut 1 cent power deals here and there to help balance the grid
May 01, 2016, 11:17:43 PM
So are we seeing some kind of deliberate pattern where say 100PH gets switched on shortly after the adjustment, and left to run for 5-6 days, and then switched off in the hopes that the overall difficulty doesn't rise to much for the next adjustment? During the 5-6 days they get a larger share of the pie, but don't have to pay the price with a higher difficulty later on?
I can't figure out if the math would work for that, or if we are trying to find something that isn't actually there.
Most interesting speculation.
I can't figure out if the math would work for that, or if we are trying to find something that isn't actually there.
Most interesting speculation.
May 01, 2016, 10:44:17 PM
PICKS OPEN IN ABOUT 28 BLOCKS
Some help to pick
So we are close to to +2.7%
If you told me pick right now I would pick higher then +1 % lower then +5%
we have time to pick do not feel rushed.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty: 177,120,609,112 (-0.86%)
Adjust time: After 1444 Blocks, About 10.0 days >> start at 1416
Hashrate(?): 1,358,440,621 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.6 minutes
Updated: 23:35 (4.6 minutes ago)
https://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks 409820
Total BTC 15.496M
Difficulty 178659257773
Estimated 180088929694 in 1444 blks
Network total 1426028.503 Thash/s
Blocks/hour 6.69 / 538 s
so above is real time 1801/1786 = 0.8%
Frankly we are higher then both estimates at the moment.
May 01, 2016, 11:32:38 AM
Yesterday was +1.39% and 146 Blocks. We seem to be settling into a band between Zero and +5% with the Period Run Rate 6 Hours in Today at +4%. Let's see where we go from here?
Rich
Rich
PICKS OPEN IN ABOUT 100 BLOCKS
Some help to pick
real time 2.7% bitcoinwisdom estimate -1.83% bitcoincharts + 2.71 % with an up tick
So we are close to -1.83 to +2.7%
If you told me pick right now I would pick higher then +1 % lower then +5%
we have time to pick do not feel rushed.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty: 178,659,257,773
Estimated Next Difficulty: 175,392,881,262(-1.83%) <
Hashrate(?): 1,335,014,458 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 10.1 minutes
3 blocks: 30.3 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated: 12:25 (2.8 minutes ago)
https://bitcoincharts.com/
Blocks 409747
Total BTC 15.494M
Difficulty 178659257773
Estimated 179107715717 in 1517 blks <<<<< here is real time about +2.7%
Network total 1525602.780 Thash/s
Blocks/hour 7.16 / 503 s
look at the chart below
May 01, 2016, 01:54:10 AM
Yesterday was +1.39% and 146 Blocks. We seem to be settling into a band between Zero and +5% with the Period Run Rate 6 Hours in Today at +4%. Let's see where we go from here?
Rich
Rich
May 01, 2016, 12:52:41 AM
Reserved .
Reserved for what? So you can speculate later after it has already happened? lol, I don't understand.Hehe sorry for bothering you guys i just posted reserved to get notified about this topic i don't know why when i click on notify button it don't work for me so i just posted . I read every single comment in this topic.
May 01, 2016, 12:14:53 AM
Okay prize is bigger so I have had some pm's trying to get a number.
No NO NO!
I can not allow anyone to do this. Gives an edge to them.
also I will be watching for more maneuvers. No sure what the reserve is for but since it is early and before pick time.
It will not be able to list a pick that counts.
No NO NO!
I can not allow anyone to do this. Gives an edge to them.
also I will be watching for more maneuvers. No sure what the reserve is for but since it is early and before pick time.
It will not be able to list a pick that counts.
April 30, 2016, 05:11:46 PM
Reserved .
Reserved for what? So you can speculate later after it has already happened? lol, I don't understand.Lol I don't get it either that is genius though. Reserve a first pick then after go I speculated price and difficulty perfect! Would be funny but edit would be obvious. I have a feeling it's someone trying to save spot on guessing... which will not happen. And I could be wrong I'm just guessing.
Coinbase is down like 2 dollars around 455, so hard to be to mad but not getting that fast upward motion we were for a bit.
April 30, 2016, 04:37:34 PM
Reserved .
Reserved for what? So you can speculate later after it has already happened? lol, I don't understand. April 30, 2016, 01:55:59 PM
Reserved .
April 30, 2016, 02:55:35 AM
First full Day of the new period and we had +9.2% with 158 Blocks. 7 Hours in Today we are sitting at a period Run rate of +1.83% so I would say well within normal variance for no change to the overall network Hash since the adjustment.
Rich
Rich
April 29, 2016, 03:56:42 PM
Yep, adjustment is done and they've fired up the farm(s) again, look at that hash spike back up!
I still think we'll be over 200G by the time the halving comes, but I would love to be wrong.
can not say you are wrong. I am hoping for six to seven days up to 5% then slowing back down to the 0-1% range.
I would love to see this for two more jumps. I am in the middle of firing up a third and final eth miner and i will mine eth for the next 2 months in house as the power requirements are low.
Eth has the nice thing of currrently requiring GPU's. It still scares me a little on if someone makes a asic chip and keeps it to themself, kinda like x11 was handled.
Good news is we broke 450 again, so no big sell walls at this point with going up and down there. Coinbase has us at around 457 so were off to a nice start on value this period.
April 29, 2016, 12:28:58 PM
Yep, adjustment is done and they've fired up the farm(s) again, look at that hash spike back up!
I still think we'll be over 200G by the time the halving comes, but I would love to be wrong.
April 29, 2016, 09:42:13 AM
Yeah someone restarted the engine !
April 29, 2016, 08:41:03 AM
Okay I go for
+1.4
+1.4
April 29, 2016, 08:37:03 AM
So the hashrate is still off as I speak. I don't know what to think anymore 
I was ready for "back to the sky" movement.
I was ready for "back to the sky" movement.
I think the big players are waiting for the halving to turn their new-generation hashers on. If they'd do it right now, they would have an effect on the difficulty and they don't want that right now (well they did a few weeks ago when we saw 20% increase). They are ready for the halving. And when it comes...
...all the small hashers will turn off their gear.
But the big ones will turn on their new machines. Difficulty would double, but since the small ones turn the switch off, the difficulty should be ok for them. And they won't lose that much in the halving. They are ready.
Meanwhile, they control the difficulty (by turning on and off machines; it's a game: "Hey let's try to get the diff to EXACTLY 0.00% this time!"), of course by colluding between the big ones in China.
Also depends on Bitcoin price. It'll be interesting to see how it changes over the next 2-3 months. Whether or not people jump on the bit train.
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