Topic: Diff thread june 20 to july 4 -picks are closed!.... prize = $50 usd - page 8. (Read 6428 times)

It has definitely taken a tumble which are not quite as fun to watch.  In a single day we have went from high 660' to a low of 551.  So a huge drop and a lot of people sold making it continue to drop.  I like charts and there is one of my favorite here - http://www.coindesk.com/price/

We are a little more stable going up to  576 on coinbase.   But it's still very volitale  so hard to say what will happen in next 12-24 hours.  I hope up but who  knows.

Hey all! hard life with 2jobs...
1k?! goes under 600, maybe even 500atm!

Were starting this period with coinbase around 670 currently so it did drop under the 700 mark.  Hopefully we can gain ground back, but not surprising considering how fast we shot up.  I hope to see 700 base again in not to long (hopefully).

And bitwisdom is very early:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    209,453,158,595
Estimated Next Difficulty:    223,292,141,377 (+6.61%)
Adjust time:    After 1957 Blocks, About 13.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,631,725,609 GH/s

Yea that big peak hash power was shut off again, just after the diff adjustment like it has been doing for a while now.  I think we'll see another huge price surge still, I think the coin will be over $1000 at the halving - my prediction and quote me on it if it happens (but feel free to ignore if it doesn't ).

We came up with the limited picking time for a few reasons.  Last minute picks for the obvious reasons.  Picks too early since we did not have winners and rollovers began common.  the range of say 1.2 then 1.3 then point 1.4  was to prevent   snipe picks.

So basically your pick of 1.2  gives you from  +1.20% to + 1.29%

part of the game is to not rush incase of a big % shift but to not wait too long so that all the good picks get taken.


Back to the speculation part of the thread.  Coins are tanking today  we got down to 628  but are back up to 656.

if we settle at 650

I  wonder how the diff moves. 

the s-7 at 650 clears  3.95 usd per day at 10 cent power  and it clears 32 cents after the ½ ing
the s-7 at 600 clears  3.43 usd per day at 10 cent power  and it  clears 7 cents after the ½ ing


so the  600 a coin  pretty much is a near death price for an s-7 in about 3 weeks.

Since I have 2 s-9's soon to be 4 s-9's  I wonder if I want a 600 dollar coin vs an 800 dollar coin?

I have to think the diff would have a nice drop at 600 a coin and not much of a drop at 800 a coin.

I am hoping we can keep BTC in upper 600's going into having.  I think some sold some off before having as lot's of unknowns so I can understand that.   I hope with getting so close to having we manage to get up to 700+ again this period.  But I have a hard time complaining still at high 600's.   

I am also hoping we don't have any bad news.  I have enjoyed playing around with Ether and man did the DAO news drop it.  It has rebounded some but not to the 20 mark which was so nice to see.  So I just hope we can keep news positive about bitcoin going into having as news definitely has a effect on price.

Thanks you Phil

While it's way too early to make a pick, I am expecting another increase in difficulty, and don't mean just 1%. Isay this because BTC is price is higher than most of the current year. Yes it's lower than a week ago, it's still much higher than it was for the first 4 months of the year. That will delay the exit of some less efficient mining hardware until after the halving. You can also be sure that all the S9's, and even S7's that Bitmain ships will get deployed.

To me that all adds up to another noticeable jump in hashrate and hence difficulty. In my opinion, the only thing that would limit the increase is a substantial "collapse" of BTC price, say $400 or less.

While BTC is above $600, I think the plan will be "Mine while the mining is good".

I made a  post with start time and end time above.


I did a new prize structure. 

 $50 usd per jump.
 Not 0.10 btc per jump


 $50 a jump  will Stay in place barring a crash in btc value to under 500 a coin.  If coins drop under 500  I will award .1 btc a jump.
I need to do this do to coin price  volatility.

 When game began about 20 months ago coins were about 200 usd  0.10 btc was about 20 usd. we paid  in .10 btc numbers.  Our first donator to the game  spent over 2.8 coins.  I have been the sole payer for the last 4 months and have paid .9 coins  so 3.7 coins have been awarded for free, nada, nothing  no cost.  I am still able to do this due to my signature fee.  Which I put into payments here.

First rule is I decide all rules since it is a free chance to get some coin.
Second rule is you need to be  a forum member since April 1st of 2016
Third rule is you need to have made 30 posts.  I will read them and decide if you appear to be real.
Fourth rule is if I think you are double dipping your picks won't be allowed
Fifth rule is we open picks at 1116 and end picks at 716   just about 2.5 days to pick.
Sixth rule is  this is for fun so I tend to allow off topic and don't delete very much.
Seventh rule is your pick should look like  -1.2 = philipma1957 or   +1.2 = philipma1957
Eight rule is  if you pick a used pick I will assign a pick to you and you are stuck with the one I assign.
Ninth rule no pick changes
Tenth rule no pre picks via pm's
Eleven rule no late picks.

Anything I missed above feel free to mention.

I'll 2nd his comments.

As I do the math, the CURRENT adjustment period will have all 25BTC blocks, and will complete before the halving. The NEXT adjustment period will have the halving contained within it (and have a mix of 25 and 12.5 BTC blocks).

Thanks for keeping it going, Phil.  Last one before the halving?  Let's do it!

Okay  one needs to be answered since I do not recall you playing before.


Picks start at block 1116 and end at block 716 of each adjustment period.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   209,453,158,595
Estimated Next Difficulty:   223,400,077,522 (+6.66%)


Adjust time:   After 1978 Blocks, About 13.4 days PICKS BEGIN AT 1116  we are at 1978


Hashrate(?):   1,672,941,132 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   7:55 (3.0 minutes ago)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   209,453,158,595
Estimated Next Difficulty:   223,400,077,522 (+6.66%)


Adjust time:   After 1978 Blocks, About 13.4 days PICKS END AT 716  we are at 1978


Hashrate(?):   1,672,941,132 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   7:55 (3.0 minutes ago)

[/quote]

A minor suggestions for Phil:

Maybe the title should say "not yet open" rather than "closed" prior to block 1116. It might be a little more descriptive. Obviously "open" when we pass 1116 remaining and then "closed" when we are down to 716 remaining.

Just a thought.

New game ? So how is it that the picks are closed ?

Picks are only open for the middle of the difficulty period - if you look at some of the previous threads you will see exactly how it works, but in short we all have to wait, observe and speculate for the first few hundred blocks, then Philip will open the competition for 400 blocks, when we make our forecasts guesses and then picks are closed for the last few hundred blocks (to prevent last minute guesses) and we are all on tenterhooks watching ...

Okay new game.