Diff thread sept 17th. to sept 30th Picks are closed!! - page 3.

cakir

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★ BitClave ICO: 15/09/17 ★

Quote from: notlist3d on September 28, 2015, 07:40:14 PM

Quote from: Mikestang on September 28, 2015, 07:11:11 PM

Quote from: notlist3d on September 28, 2015, 06:33:43 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on September 28, 2015, 06:24:37 PM

so far today in 22 hours and 20 min which should be 134 blocks

we made 376576 - 376445 = 132 blocks not that bad

https://blockchain.info/blocks

I always love your updates thank you for doing them. I have wondered how do you get the number we should be at? Is it a website your going to or are you doing some math by hand?

1 block every 10 mins is 6 blocks an hour is 144 a day, so start at midnight being 0 blocks for the day and depending what time of day it is you can easily figure out how many blocks "should have been" solved already. At least I'm guessing that's how he does it.

I really enjoy this thread and the updates, too. Watching the diff is just part of the fun of bitcoin. /popcorn

This may be a horribly stupid question but how do you get the 144 number that it should have been? It seems like it would change which each difficulty change. I'm not clicking on how you get the "should be" number.

And thank you for taking time to help me understand it, I'm just wanting to be able to calculate it myself.

For 24 hours @Mikestang gave the calculation. 10 minutes is average of the block time between blocks.

Quote

so far today in 22 hours and 20 min which should be 134 blocks
we made 376576 - 376445 = 132 blocks not that bad

Check the date of block 376445; it's 2015-09-28 00:03:37 (First block of the day)
https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000000c91485e60e4bbf4143c7993c7d53c6e36493dde7b1b99ca

Check the date of block 376576; it's 2015-09-28 22:19:20 (Last block at the given time)
https://blockchain.info/block/00000000000000000b304a89e75f6174f2aeb551fee3338416f020e6fff9e096

Approximately 22 hours and 20 minutes passed between those blocks.

Now; Multiply the hours by 6 and divide the minutes by 10 then calculate the sum: 22*6 + 20/10 = 134 blocks should be found. (That's average, proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto)

But; Check the block count by calculating the difference between block heights: 376576 - 376445 = 132

That shows 2 blocks away from the average.

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Mikestang on September 28, 2015, 07:11:11 PM

Quote from: notlist3d on September 28, 2015, 06:33:43 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on September 28, 2015, 06:24:37 PM

so far today in 22 hours and 20 min which should be 134 blocks

we made 376576 - 376445 = 132 blocks not that bad

https://blockchain.info/blocks

I always love your updates thank you for doing them. I have wondered how do you get the number we should be at? Is it a website your going to or are you doing some math by hand?

1 block every 10 mins is 6 blocks an hour is 144 a day, so start at midnight being 0 blocks for the day and depending what time of day it is you can easily figure out how many blocks "should have been" solved already. At least I'm guessing that's how he does it.

I really enjoy this thread and the updates, too. Watching the diff is just part of the fun of bitcoin. /popcorn

This may be a horribly stupid question but how do you get the 144 number that it should have been? It seems like it would change which each difficulty change. I'm not clicking on how you get the "should be" number.

And thank you for taking time to help me understand it, I'm just wanting to be able to calculate it myself.

Mikestang

legendary

Activity: 1274

Merit: 1000

Quote from: notlist3d on September 28, 2015, 06:33:43 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on September 28, 2015, 06:24:37 PM

so far today in 22 hours and 20 min which should be 134 blocks

we made 376576 - 376445 = 132 blocks not that bad

https://blockchain.info/blocks

I always love your updates thank you for doing them. I have wondered how do you get the number we should be at? Is it a website your going to or are you doing some math by hand?

1 block every 10 mins is 6 blocks an hour is 144 a day, so start at midnight being 0 blocks for the day and depending what time of day it is you can easily figure out how many blocks "should have been" solved already. At least I'm guessing that's how he does it.

I really enjoy this thread and the updates, too. Watching the diff is just part of the fun of bitcoin. /popcorn

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: philipma1957 on September 28, 2015, 06:24:37 PM

so far today in 22 hours and 20 min which should be 134 blocks

we made 376576 - 376445 = 132 blocks not that bad

https://blockchain.info/blocks

I always love your updates thank you for doing them. I have wondered how do you get the number we should be at? Is it a website your going to or are you doing some math by hand?

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

so far today in 22 hours and 20 min which should be 134 blocks

we made 376576 - 376445 = 132 blocks not that bad

https://blockchain.info/blocks

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Mikestang on September 28, 2015, 04:29:25 PM

Price had a nice weekend, picked up almost $10. Currently closing in on $240, if price can keep climbing and diff stays flat this will be a good adjustment period. But the tidal wave is coming, I can feel all those S7s getting unboxed out there...

The last 24 hours has been good on price no doubt about it. I hope it continues but I am happy with slow and no big drops.

I think a decent amount of them have hit their homes at this point on S7's. I do wonder how long till they make another batch. I still think a internal use for something such as hashnest or a data center upgrading from A1's (or other old gear) could add to our hash rate fast. I wonder if no batch open for sale as sales mentioned before, or if they are truly just out of inventory.

Mikestang

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Price had a nice weekend, picked up almost $10. Currently closing in on $240, if price can keep climbing and diff stays flat this will be a good adjustment period. But the tidal wave is coming, I can feel all those S7s getting unboxed out there...

VirosaGITS

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Activity: 1302

Merit: 1068

Quote from: notlist3d on September 27, 2015, 11:45:45 PM

I like it better then the previous weeks. I am hoping we can get a few weeks of 2-3. But that is kinda a wish I think that will be hit and miss depending on batches of S7 in near future.

In far future I have no idea what SP50's will do to it once they start pumping those out.

Its Monday fairly globally now so shipping will resume. We'll possible see a preview of whats to come, with what the remainder of Batch 1 S7 will do to the difficulty.

Meanwhile we can hope the manufacturing power of SP50 won't be world shattering, if the difficulty only increase at a small pace, the BTC price might keep up and only miners that were already mining very tight on the margin will be offlined, but allowed to smoothly fade out.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,512,073,538 (+1.98%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

green going down a bit, maybe the rest will follow

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

I like it better then the previous weeks. I am hoping we can get a few weeks of 2-3. But that is kinda a wish I think that will be hit and miss depending on batches of S7 in near future.

In far future I have no idea what SP50's will do to it once they start pumping those out.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Sept 17 143

Sept 18 147 So very close to 1%

Sept 19 127 and as of now we are negative for the real time number. - 15 blocks which is close to -4% !!!

Sept 20 124 so we are - 35 blocks as of last night.

Sept 21 130 so we are -49

Sept 22 162 and that is plus 18 so we are at -31

Sept 23 155 plus 11 brings us to -20

Sept 24 137 minus 7 brings us to -27 as of 10 pm last night

Sept 25. 167 plus 23 brings us to -4 as of 10 pm Friday

Sept 26 152 plus 8 brings us to plus 4 as of 10 pm sat

Sept 27 144 even we are plus 4 blocks as of 1130 pm sun

Sept 28 140 -4 and how about that a big fat 0 - or +

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is at (+1.79%)

we made 1632 blocks and have 384 left.

This is about 2.5 days. .

that 1.79% is off the real time number of 1632 blocks made vs 1632 = +0.000%

So how can this be?

well no one is build much gear at the moment or variance or bitmaintech turned the gear off dropping the rates as much as 5%

and most of the gear has now arrived bringing us back to 0.

this is a strong indication that no one else
bitfury
knc
avalon
21
the a2 chip builder
sfards is adding a shit ton of gear this jump.

As always time will tell and we could burn those 384 blocks up in days flat = big jump.

Kind of fun to guess though.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: notlist3d on September 26, 2015, 11:55:08 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on September 26, 2015, 10:44:10 PM

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Sept 17 143

Sept 18 147 So very close to 1%

Sept 19 127 and as of now we are negative for the real time number. - 15 blocks which is close to -4% !!!

Sept 20 124 so we are - 35 blocks as of last night.

Sept 21 130 so we are -49

Sept 22 162 and that is plus 18 so we are at -31

Sept 23 155 plus 11 brings us to -20

Sept 24 137 minus 7 brings us to -27 as of 10 pm last night

Sept 25. 167 plus 23 brings us to -4 as of 10 pm Friday

Sept 26 152 plus 8 brings us to plus 4 as of 10 pm sat

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is at (+2.31%)

we made 1340 blocks and have 676 left.

This is about 4.5 days. .

that 2.31 is off real time number of 1340 vs 1336 = +0.299%

for us to reach 2.31% is possible if we do the next 4 days over 150 average.

To not get the 5 percent would be nice. I'm would like a change under 2 again, but I dont think that will happen.

At least hopefully not another +5 week... hopefully

plus 5 this time would be very hard to do. we would need to do those 676 blocks in 4 days or 169 blocks 4 days in a row.

https://blockchain.info/blocks

so far we did 118 today in 19 hours which is a 149 block day or just about 3.5% this pace will move us from 0.3% to 2.3%

now 141 in 22 hours and 40 min we should be at 136 so we are still at that 149 pace for the day

VirosaGITS

legendary

Activity: 1302

Merit: 1068

Quote from: notlist3d on September 27, 2015, 12:48:27 AM

Quote from: mavericklm on September 27, 2015, 12:34:25 AM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,896,634,893 (+2.63%) Damn!

Will we ever see again +25% jumps?!?! .....

We have grown to the point +25 most likely will never happen again. If some how all the companies came up with a new NM at once and pumped out a ton..... guess there is a way it could happen but it wont.

I think 5 is seen as a big jump now. The day's we got 15-25's we also were having 3 month ROI in many cases. Roi is longer and percent rising is slower aswell.

The 504 block is still at 440~ PH after a few days and with 4.2 days left, we're still looking at quite a bit higher than 2.6%~

With the long ROI, I guess the big winners in North America are the electric companies lol.

notlist3d

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Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: mavericklm on September 27, 2015, 12:34:25 AM

Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,896,634,893 (+2.63%) Damn!

Will we ever see again +25% jumps?!?! .....

We have grown to the point +25 most likely will never happen again. If some how all the companies came up with a new NM at once and pumped out a ton..... guess there is a way it could happen but it wont.

I think 5 is seen as a big jump now. The day's we got 15-25's we also were having 3 month ROI in many cases. Roi is longer and percent rising is slower aswell.

mavericklm

hero member

Activity: 742

Merit: 500

Estimated Next Difficulty: 60,896,634,893 (+2.63%) Damn!

Will we ever see again +25% jumps?!?! .....

notlist3d

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1000

Quote from: philipma1957 on September 26, 2015, 10:44:10 PM

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Sept 17 143

Sept 18 147 So very close to 1%

Sept 19 127 and as of now we are negative for the real time number. - 15 blocks which is close to -4% !!!

Sept 20 124 so we are - 35 blocks as of last night.

Sept 21 130 so we are -49

Sept 22 162 and that is plus 18 so we are at -31

Sept 23 155 plus 11 brings us to -20

Sept 24 137 minus 7 brings us to -27 as of 10 pm last night

Sept 25. 167 plus 23 brings us to -4 as of 10 pm Friday

Sept 26 152 plus 8 brings us to plus 4 as of 10 pm sat

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is at (+2.31%)

we made 1340 blocks and have 676 left.

This is about 4.5 days. .

that 2.31 is off real time number of 1340 vs 1336 = +0.299%

for us to reach 2.31% is possible if we do the next 4 days over 150 average.

To not get the 5 percent would be nice. I'm would like a change under 2 again, but I dont think that will happen.

At least hopefully not another +5 week... hopefully

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Sept 17 143

Sept 18 147 So very close to 1%

Sept 19 127 and as of now we are negative for the real time number. - 15 blocks which is close to -4% !!!

Sept 20 124 so we are - 35 blocks as of last night.

Sept 21 130 so we are -49

Sept 22 162 and that is plus 18 so we are at -31

Sept 23 155 plus 11 brings us to -20

Sept 24 137 minus 7 brings us to -27 as of 10 pm last night

Sept 25. 167 plus 23 brings us to -4 as of 10 pm Friday

Sept 26 152 plus 8 brings us to plus 4 as of 10 pm sat

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is at (+2.31%)

we made 1340 blocks and have 676 left.

This is about 4.5 days. .

that 2.31 is off real time number of 1340 vs 1336 = +0.299%

for us to reach 2.31% is possible if we do the next 4 days over 150 average.

DanielRo

hero member

Activity: 689

Merit: 501

Quote from: mavericklm on September 25, 2015, 11:59:22 PM

Bitcoin Difficulty:    59,335,351,234
Estimated Next Difficulty:    59,905,746,706 (+0.96%)
Adjust time:    After 815 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?):    453,913,113 GH/s

with the remaining time it can reach even and maybe 3%?

If few SP50 are plugged in I hope to reach over 5% Grin

.
Right now we are over 2%.

EternalWingsofGod

hero member

Activity: 700

Merit: 500

That was underwhelming looks like it will be end as a stable round.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 59,335,351,234
Estimated Next Difficulty: 59,979,751,285 (+1.09%)
Adjust time: After 781 Blocks, About 5.3 days
Hashrate(?): 455,742,758 GH/s

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4116

Merit: 7849

'The right to privacy matters'

i would like to have 2.22 as my pick

Topic: Diff thread sept 17th. to sept 30th Picks are closed!! - page 3. (Read 7030 times)