[Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2020 - page 5.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

Surprisingly (to me), Lithuania is now the top favourite for winning the ESC Shocked

As I said before, it's a good song and I like it, but not good enough to win. And Lithuania isn't a country that tends be very successful at ESC. The introduction of a jury voting in combination with the televoting made things fairer, but you still need friendly votes to win and Lithuania is lacking a bit in that department imo. Since 2000 Lithuania has....

.....missed the final 7 out of 18 times (39%)
.....been ranked outside Top10 9 out of 18 times (50%)
.....only two Top10 finishes (11%)

Maybe @LTU_btc could give some insight, If there is some huge hype in Lithuania about this song ?

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

Quote from: Saint-loup on February 19, 2020, 09:51:22 AM

Live performance of Dotter : https://twitter.com/CarlosRivasFdez/status/1226244263438143488

of Anna Bergendahl : https://twitter.com/CarlosRivasFdez/status/1226240898901725192

Thanks for these. I think Anna Bergendahl has/had too many people on stage, for ESC there is only five allowed iirc. But anyway, both these songs don't need a big performance. The song from Dotter is not meeting my personal taste, but I can see it doing very well, so probably rightfully #1 for Melodifestivalen by the bookmakers.

Does anyone remember the winner from 2006 ? -> Lordi - Hard Rock Hallelujah

I remember the odds being around 30-ish before the start. In a betting forum I frequently visited at that time, people were jumping like crazy on Finland to win. I thought they were insane, because never in this world I would have thought, that such a song could be successful at ESC (back then), let alone win it. But the performance was just awesome and the crowd was well surprised with such a unique entry. Everyone liked it, although most people might not hear this sort of music normally.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 18, 2020, 09:17:26 PM

I was wondering why Sweden is priced so low without any artist or song announced yet. Same with Bulgaria, but they have at least their artist announced. Now Sweden always has very good entries, Top10 is nearly a lock every year. They are probably the most successful country in the history of ESC (don't have any stats to back that up though).

Their yearly Melodifestivalen is a huge thing and the final will be held in Friends Arena in Stockholm with 30,000 capacity for that event Shocked

They are still busy with semifinals, but six finalists out of 12 are already known and I looked them up:

Robin Bengtsson - Take A Chance
Mohombi - Winners
Anna Bergendahl – Kingdom come
Dotter – Bulletproof
Mariette – Shout It Out

The Mamas with "Move" I couldn't find unfortunately.

These are all very good entries, impressive. I like the one from Anna Bergendahl best so far, but there is one issue: Sweden only failed once to reach the final and it was in 2010 when Anna Bergendahl was their artist Cheesy

Regarding the quality of the songs so far, I think it might be worth a little punt in the dark on Sweden already. Pretty sure those odds will go down and have good value at a later point.

Thank you for sharing these links, my favorite songs are Dotter first and Robin Bengtsson in second. Dotter is also the favorite of bookmakers so it could be a good sign

The second one is Anna Bergendahl for them, as for now.
https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/melodifestivalen

Live performance of Dotter : https://twitter.com/CarlosRivasFdez/status/1226244263438143488

of Anna Bergendahl : https://twitter.com/CarlosRivasFdez/status/1226240898901725192

swogerino

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I agree with bookmakers so if I were to bet here I would bet on Italy.In the national Italian festival that just finished a few days ago the singer Diodato performed very well and I think it was the winner.I think the song was beautiful and I think it will be a winner in the Eurovision also.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

I was wondering why Sweden is priced so low without any artist or song announced yet. Same with Bulgaria, but they have at least their artist announced. Now Sweden always has very good entries, Top10 is nearly a lock every year. They are probably the most successful country in the history of ESC (don't have any stats to back that up though).

Their yearly Melodifestivalen is a huge thing and the final will be held in Friends Arena in Stockholm with 30,000 capacity for that event Shocked

They are still busy with semifinals, but six finalists out of 12 are already known and I looked them up:

Robin Bengtsson - Take A Chance
Mohombi - Winners
Anna Bergendahl – Kingdom come
Dotter – Bulletproof
Mariette – Shout It Out

The Mamas with "Move" I couldn't find unfortunately.

These are all very good entries, impressive. I like the one from Anna Bergendahl best so far, but there is one issue: Sweden only failed once to reach the final and it was in 2010 when Anna Bergendahl was their artist Cheesy

Regarding the quality of the songs so far, I think it might be worth a little punt in the dark on Sweden already. Pretty sure those odds will go down and have good value at a later point.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: mu_enrico on February 18, 2020, 08:58:24 AM

I couldn't open Fai Rumore, anyone experiencing this issue? Anyway, I found this video just in case the previous one stops working
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPv9ZPXmFWU

After listening to the updated songs list, I'd still pick these two songs:

Quote from: mu_enrico on February 10, 2020, 02:19:38 PM

My current basket, "Fai rumore & Shaj."

Here is the live performance for Shaj's lovers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CznVbKqA1Q

Very beautiful songs, I hope one of them would win. I couldn't understand a word, and yet I felt the songs resonated with my heart. lmao

It seems the owner has changed the access rights to private. Thank you for the new link but as you say for "Shaj" (Albania) watching the live performance is better to get an accurate judgment. For Diodato I think his performance is more spectacular on stage because of the strength of his voice and interpretation.

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 18, 2020, 09:12:32 AM

Yes, the links to the Youtube videos in the first post might have some geo restrictions. Eurovision didn't upload most of the songs on their channel yet, but I will keep an eye on that and put the correct links in once available on their channel.

Yes I hope they will upload them soon to be able to compare the number of views, likes and dislikes of the videos (even if they are influenced by the odds like a vicious circle) on the official Eurovision channel.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

Quote from: mu_enrico on February 18, 2020, 08:58:24 AM

I couldn't open Fai Rumore, anyone experiencing this issue?

Yes, the links to the Youtube videos in the first post might have some geo restrictions. Eurovision didn't upload most of the songs on their channel yet, but I will keep an eye on that and put the correct links in once available on their channel.

As of now, in a very young and illiquid market, the favourites are:

Italy @7-8
Russia @11-12
Sweden @12-13
Lituania @12-13
Bulgaria @14-15

Quote from: mu_enrico on February 18, 2020, 08:58:24 AM

Here is the live performance for Shaj's lovers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CznVbKqA1Q

Very beautiful songs, I hope one of them would win. I couldn't understand a word, and yet I felt the songs resonated with my heart. lmao

Albania is around 200-ish, so very unlikely to win (as it stands for now Wink

)

mu_enrico

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I couldn't open Fai Rumore, anyone experiencing this issue? Anyway, I found this video just in case the previous one stops working
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPv9ZPXmFWU

After listening to the updated songs list, I'd still pick these two songs:

Quote from: mu_enrico on February 10, 2020, 02:19:38 PM

My current basket, "Fai rumore & Shaj."

Here is the live performance for Shaj's lovers https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CznVbKqA1Q

Very beautiful songs, I hope one of them would win. I couldn't understand a word, and yet I felt the songs resonated with my heart. lmao

buwaytress

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 17, 2020, 08:35:24 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on February 10, 2020, 04:01:05 PM

P.S. I happen to have my all-time fav Euro band representing Belgium (Hooverphonic). I've been listening to them ever since their cover of This Strange Effect hit my eardrums in the 1990s. So I actually have a band I support in this edition. If anyone wonders what 1990s triphop sounded like, without mentioning Massive Attack and Portishead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu2nSWSgFa8

They finally released their song (and video) and it is named, ta-da, "Release Me". It's a very pure and sad song, but quite nice, though I don't think it's winner material. Such songs tend to land somewhere in the 5-10 range. Odds went from 25ish yesterday to 60+ now. Belgium often has trouble getting past the semifinal, but the times they did in recent years, they had good placements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAqjksxc4iA

Pretty typical of their latter singles, yeah, and I'm already liking it, but sadly, I agree with most people here and the commenters on YouTube that this is not going to win Eurovision... or even qualify for the finals. The type of music actually might not matter as much (judging from last year's winner, that even features some of the same lyrics as this!) but as commenters point out, the staging is a huge, huge problem.

Love Hooverphonic to bits and I'll still root for them but impossible to see them win this one. Thanks for the notify, Ty;)

babygun

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Quote from: Saint-loup on February 17, 2020, 09:38:22 AM

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 17, 2020, 08:35:24 AM

They finally released their song (and video) and it is named, ta-da, "Release Me". It's a very pure and sad song, but quite nice, though I don't think it's winner material. Such songs tend to land somewhere in the 5-10 range. Odds went from 25ish yesterday to 60+ now. Belgium often has trouble getting past the semifinal, but the times they did in recent years, they had good placements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAqjksxc4iA

Not very Eurovision formatted, but it's a nice song I think. I don't find it really belgian nonetheless (no french neither dutch in the song Embarrassed

). I hope Belgium will qualify but I wouldn't bet on a top 10 finishing. It looks like Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down) a little bit I think.

I heard this song a couple of times on the radio today. It's a nice song, but nothing more than that. All the analysts are quite negative about this song and say it is not a song for Eurovision.
Reaching the final will already be a success.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 17, 2020, 08:35:24 AM

They finally released their song (and video) and it is named, ta-da, "Release Me". It's a very pure and sad song, but quite nice, though I don't think it's winner material. Such songs tend to land somewhere in the 5-10 range. Odds went from 25ish yesterday to 60+ now. Belgium often has trouble getting past the semifinal, but the times they did in recent years, they had good placements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAqjksxc4iA

Not very Eurovision formatted, but it's a nice song I think. I don't find it really belgian nonetheless (no french neither dutch in the song Embarrassed

). I hope Belgium will qualify but I wouldn't bet on a top 10 finishing. It looks like Bang Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down) a little bit I think.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

Quote from: buwaytress on February 10, 2020, 04:01:05 PM

P.S. I happen to have my all-time fav Euro band representing Belgium (Hooverphonic). I've been listening to them ever since their cover of This Strange Effect hit my eardrums in the 1990s. So I actually have a band I support in this edition. If anyone wonders what 1990s triphop sounded like, without mentioning Massive Attack and Portishead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu2nSWSgFa8

They finally released their song (and video) and it is named, ta-da, "Release Me". It's a very pure and sad song, but quite nice, though I don't think it's winner material. Such songs tend to land somewhere in the 5-10 range. Odds went from 25ish yesterday to 60+ now. Belgium often has trouble getting past the semifinal, but the times they did in recent years, they had good placements.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAqjksxc4iA

Stalker22

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Quote from: Saint-loup on February 17, 2020, 03:12:48 AM

BTW I had only heard the sound versions of Armenia and Albania from your links. But after watching their video versions I think Armenia is my 5th favorite song now, the country has great chances to qualify to the final with this song IMHO.

Athena (Armenia) may be a good singer, I just can’t tell by this song. This is a bit Beyonce-ish and rather disappointing for me.
Not my cup of tits! Grin

alani123

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For me, the most fun is to be able o bet during the final.
During the last two years I've had good winnings in bookies that allowed voting to take place while voting. From some decently high odds you could win big with even small bets, and it's super exciting when the voting takes some of the least favorite songs to the top, while the bookie still syncs odds.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 16, 2020, 07:15:00 PM

Quote from: Saint-loup on February 16, 2020, 11:51:02 AM

The french song will be released this evening(20h50 CET) but it has already been leaked on social networks.
The song has been written by the (swedish) authors of Euphoria (winner 2012).
Tom Leeb -The best in me
https://twitter.com/archive_de/status/1229005840172056576

In the twitter link he starts english and switches to french afterwards. In the youtube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-1WR2Vd7Qk) he starts with french and then switches to english, weird. I like that song, especially the switching from englisch/french, but odds have gone up for France during the evening, so looks like the market doesn't like it Grin

I still couldn't find the song from North Macedonia (Vasil Garvanliev "You"), so if anybody has a link to it, please post.

Yes it seems the beginning of the song has been cut in the version of my link.
I'm not surprised of what you are saying about the odds, reactions have been very bad on social medias in France. Mainly because of the lack of originality of the song and because of the singer voice during his live performance yesterday.
BTW I had only heard the sound versions of Armenia and Albania from your links. But after watching their video versions I think Armenia is my 5th favorite song now, the country has great chances to qualify to the final with this song IMHO.
Armenia : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hxh311X0umg
Albania : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGlDU5ktmIU

LTU_btc

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Slava Ukraini!

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 16, 2020, 07:15:00 PM

I still couldn't find the song from North Macedonia (Vasil Garvanliev "You"), so if anybody has a link to it, please post.

As I understand, this song still isn't publicly released, this is why it's impossible to find it anywhere. It's kinda strange practice from North Macedonia.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

Quote from: Saint-loup on February 16, 2020, 11:51:02 AM

The french song will be released this evening(20h50 CET) but it has already been leaked on social networks.
The song has been written by the (swedish) authors of Euphoria (winner 2012).
Tom Leeb -The best in me
https://twitter.com/archive_de/status/1229005840172056576

In the twitter link he starts english and switches to french afterwards. In the youtube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-1WR2Vd7Qk) he starts with french and then switches to english, weird. I like that song, especially the switching from englisch/french, but odds have gone up for France during the evening, so looks like the market doesn't like it Grin

I still couldn't find the song from North Macedonia (Vasil Garvanliev "You"), so if anybody has a link to it, please post.

Saint-loup

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Quote from: Saint-loup on February 14, 2020, 12:26:37 AM

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 13, 2020, 06:04:29 PM

Germany and UK (and Spain and France) always perform very poor ranking wise.

I agree with you for France, and this year it's even worse than the previous years, it's a totally unknown folk/blues singer(in fact his father is a famous humorist) singing in english. If I can bet France not reaching the top 10, I will do it Roll Eyes

The french song will be released this evening(20h50 CET) but it has already been leaked on social networks.
The song has been written by the (swedish) authors of Euphoria (winner 2012).
Tom Leeb -The best in me
https://twitter.com/archive_de/status/1229005840172056576

TopTort777

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Another year, another political contest. Neighbors gives high scores to neighbor countries, jury’s can be bribed, but in overall freak/transgender/transvestite/crippled/someone with incurable decease wins.

This contest is far away from music. I usually turn off the show when it comes to scoring.

Btw, I’ve noticed that usually wins that country, which bookmakers marked as a winner. Most of the years bookies are correct. Want a 100% win, make a bet on someone with lowest odd

Saint-loup

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on February 16, 2020, 06:53:32 AM

You should start placing some bets on Spain then

The odds for the countries that have announced their entries until now (taken from Orbit Exchange).

Well it's just my personal taste, not my prediction for the moment but I'm pretty happy to see that 3 of them are already in the top 4 of the bookmakers.

For Spain yes I think those odds are underrated IMO. The reactions from the "Eurovision Hub" have been pretty good overall
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsLifG6nMk

Topic: [Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2020 - page 5. (Read 1786 times)