Topic: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner - page 19. (Read 153396 times)

this is the logical conclusion can you give insight on how?

Bitcoin is about to be contested.

In a big way.

I just skimmed the IXC page (from 2011). You're either the most misguided self-declared "economist" I've ever met or a terrible troll.

IXC is described on its own page as an exact clone of BTC, but with a linear mining rate terminating in 2015 with all 21M coins. (In choosing a 1WC from the existing cryptos, if we ignore the conspiracy side, why would they have to choose one which had finished being mined?)

Hilariously, this was chosen to "beat Bitcoin" and they describe Bitcoin as having an also-constant 50/block release ending in 2033 with 21M. This is of course incorrect, as Bitcoin release is not linear but an inverse exponential stairstep, ending nominally in 2140 with only a few satoshis per block. Since they had to fork BTC and recode the release formula in it, it is almost unfathomable that this could have been anything other than a deliberate and malicious misstatement of facts in an attempt at deception. It's a scumcoin (useless clone with no improvements), and probably was also the first scamcoin, though only a mildly deceptive one.

Do not reply to this thread again. (1), it's moderated by rpietila who will prune the whole thing, rightfully; this nonsense is shitting it up long enough already. But because you may simply be misguided: if you wish to speak further you may PM me. If you have legitimate curiosities I will be happy to assist. Because (2), regardless of any ad hominems you may choose to effluviate after this post, I will not reply, out of respect for #1.

—J

LTC is an improvement on BTC in many ways (though the symmetry of scrypt in validating the chain is its primary downfall, long-term). But the improvements are too trivial to make it a successor. It's a good silver, though, which is really all it ever claimed to be. You can't just be "sorta better in a few ways" to oust an incumbent technology, when we're dealing with network-effect propagation. IXC even more so. We don't care about LTC, per se.

And Ethereum is still in development. This forum, in 2010, when Satoshi frequented still, would have been in love. Maybe not then, because it takes the evolution of knowledge over these few years, but the participants, back in the glory days where the average forum IQ was probably 165, are all either involved or awaiting it with silent optimism. Satoshi included, if he's alive. But we'll see. The real Bitcoin devotees aren't religious about the brand name. We're religious about the underlying tech, where the first killer app was a p2p cryptocurrency that avoided the double-spend problem. There's a lot more coming.

Your reflexive response, and display of a lack of knowkedge, and an interest in only the brand all but guarantees that you're just going to be along for the ride. You're in the right place so you'll have a nice seat for the show, but your so-called opinions are too simple to be useful.

It will disappear because the end game is one global currency but it will be a multi year battle before Bitcoin gives up its soul and lies with Napster and MyFace. lol.

Of course you need techies, this is a tech currency but when  evaluating and analyzing which currency will become global, you need economists for that, not techies.  The hard part of the tech has been done, all these silly features are a non-event as they can be copy and pasted to any coin [open source].

Bankers will largely ignore that which all these techies place as the number 1 priority and they will instead look at security and ease of mass adoption [time and energy required to fool all the idiots on the planet to switch from worthless paper to worthless virtual].

And when you look at this game from that perspective, 99%+ of the coins ever created all of a sudden become a worthless impossibility. 

They don't stand a chance, not even the most popular and especially not coins like Litecoin.

And yes, the dollar, yen, euro, etc will be dead or near death by September 2015.  I even chose an exact date and made a shirt to wear for the celebration party:  9/1415.  That date is right on many different levels but I do realize that choosing an exact date for an economic collapse 28 months in advance is a nearly impossible feat, but it should be fun to see if it actually happens or if I'm at least close.

Because it's not a question of if, but rather when.

You need the techies, but you also need the marketing guys and the financiers, mtgox should have use more techies and more financiers..

Bitcoin will become huge when the dollar will crash and when the Yen, € and £ will also drop in value sharply; it shouldn't be too far away, 6months? One year? Maybe two years? Bitcoin also need to become user friendly and safe, having a tech giant getting involve in Bitcoin and a few big institutions creating easy wallets could obviously help a lot

If a Hong Kong bank was to create an Alt coin backed by gold it could get a lot of traction but it doesn't mean Bitcoin will disappear

No, he's just rightfully short with those who all-to-commonly ask for a large amount of free analysis and expertise ("can you do this with iXcoin?") without even doing the requisite work of reviewing all the existing work, and then having the strange (and seemingly contradictory, as you just requested the same work be done for IXC) nerve to challenge the existing work (that you haven't read) of being flawed, and requesting a summary of why it is not… implying strongly that in your brain, you're so much more brilliant than the last thousand participants and their comments that the burden of proof lies with rpietela.

I could go on but now I'm getting irritated writing this, because this illogical behavior is 99% of the forum, and you're too old to be doing this sort of garbage.

Also, the only thing that exists that may become the "new" Bitcoin is Ethereum, if it achieves its lofty goal. Everything else, even PPC, is just a clone with some tweaked numbers, some more heavily than others, but still undeniably the same genus of money, if different species. And this is coming from someone who firmly be believes that at least a couple alts are necessary for arbitrage and competition, and is impressed with the ongoing improvements made by Charlie Lee in LTC.

That is why the thread is so long because we do research, not just copypaste numbers.


No thanks. Don't you have a community of your own? 

How can you possible know the number of people in any category since lots of people can easily have more than 1 wallet? 

But I agree with the trend showing more and more Bitcoins being amassed by the top group as they have the money to reinvest in mining equipment and to actively trade, which further raises their stake and wealth in Bitcoin.  The exact wealth effect as any other fiat.

I am very curious about iXcoin, which is merge mined with bitcon.  Is there any way you can do the same analysis on IXC?

I think it's the most evenly distributed coin out there.  My theory is based on the fact that IXC has been merge mined, and thus hard to get, for over 2 years.  And it also had very low interest from the public as it had a bad rap over a measly 2.5% premine so most people thought the coin was either a scam or that it died.

But now, since thousands of people merge mine and since 80% of the total 21 million coins have been mined, it's too late for anyone to really get a huge chunk, like a 10%. 

So my theory is that iXcoin has yet one more huge benefit over Bitcoin, in that it is incredibly evenly distributed so when it goes up, many many people will benefit from it, unlike the few hundred that did well when BTC shot up for the very first time.

So I'd appreciate it if you could do a similar distribution Analysis for iXcoin.  And you should buy a few thousand IXC because a massive relaunch is planned within a month. 

Thanks and good luck!

Yes you are right. My estimate 10(+54 zeros) was based on just hypothetic asumption that when all currency declines we will still have technological/labour value that will add a value to a bitcoin. 10(+54 zeros) is just a perspective that can be phrased right now considering FUTURE value of dollar (when inflatory monetary system devaluates value of dollar in 2040).

By the way I daytrade on forex on GPB/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/USD and what can i say is that:
- Bitcoin value change is compleetly non-technical, bitcoin market and all altcoins markets behave compleetly different than any other fiat currency exchange,
- There are NO elliot waves that are the baseline of all forex exchange in value behavior of bitcoin,
- Bitcoin/altcoin value is a complete anomaly and does not posess any significant random walk behavior like other fiat currencies does,
- Its an ideal fractal in long perspective due to non-existence of random walk,
- Its constantly in UP-trend in long perspective (all other traded altcoins also),
- Its idiotic to bet on value loss of a bitcoin because it has be constantly been since its birth in an UPTREND, i would not bet a single dollar that it will decrease in value in long perspective (always look at long time period: the thing i learned from the forex daytrading)

B.R.
R3qUi3M

$1,000,000 / BTC = $21 trillion total. This is around 1/4 global GDP, or roughly equivalent to the current monetary base of the entire world.
That should provide some context for estimates.

It is basically a nice round number.

The saturation point (value when everybody uses BTC and dollar is no more) is about 5-10 million (of today's) USD

Each cryptocurrency raises once a half a year by approx 10x. Untill all BTC is mined the time elapsed will be approx. 27 yrs from now that is 27*2=54 price jump events. It means that after first jump you will have 10 times more value and after second jump you will have 100 more. It means that if you buy bitcoin now for say 1000$, in 2040 you will have 1000(+54 zeros)$ Idk what number is that ^^

PS. Use that knowledge for your own discretion and risk. I dont take any responsibility if you actualy loose money

1000x = c. $1 million / BTC. What is this guess based on?
Genuine question. Is this based on any economic model or data, or is it finger-in-the-wind stuff?
It's a topic I plan to research myself in the coming fortnight and will post the results back here, but I'd be interested what your starting point/methodology is.

When a newbie buys his first coins on fox, no new Bitcoin address is generated.

Thanks for the reply.  So are you saying that it is common for exchanges to pool funds with multiple users onto a smaller number of addresses.  I can't check bitstamp and I confess I don't understand how Gox operates, they seem to give you a different address each time.  My Cryptsy account and localbitcoin account just have one bitcoin address which show up on the blockchain with a small amounts.  Intuitively you would think that the number of addresses with small amounts would be much larger than the number of users.  That's all I am trying to get my head around.

It is quite customary to start with bitcoin by buying in an exchange and letting the coins stay there.

Thank you for all your analysis.  I have only just discovered this post and am working my way through it.  I am sure this has been answered, but I can't see it.  Why, in your calculations, are there so many more users holding <10 bitcoins than there are actual addresses.  How can you hold this amount without an address? Sorry if this is stupid.

The price will still go up by at least 1000x. It is not realistic to assume that you buy now and do not cash out any single coin until the price is $1 million per coin (or higher). To enable a balanced cashout schedule, you will probably need 10 times (minimum 3 times) the number of coins now, than you intend to hold when it gets really high.

So if you want to be really rich then (2 bitcoins), buy at least 6 bitcoins now so that you can sell some when needed on the way.

Hi, I'm kinda new here and just made an account to ask a question. What does the bit I highlighted in bold refer to? Why would anyone investing in Bitcoin need to sell at least 70%? Sorry if I'm missing something obvious. Even a link to previous discussions would be great. Thank you.