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Topic: Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner - page 21. (Read 153446 times)

donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
December 11, 2013, 09:55:59 AM
Anyone interested in running a similar breakdown for litecoin?  It's probably even more lopsided.

I'm all interested in seeing the distribution for LTC and scamcoins. Because my new article (under construction) will attempt to prove why Bitcoin has something that they don't, and it is related to the dynamics of having owners in different categories. A total refutation of the spirit behind the BI article "it is bad, that there are large and small holders", whereas it is not only good, but absolutely crucial!
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
December 11, 2013, 09:35:35 AM
Quote
Sad thing is that most people don't understand the basics of BTC.

Here comes bitcoin. Bitcoin is nothing of all these.  No creation of money out of thin air. No THEFT!

The air gets pretty thin every 8 or 9 minutes. 

No BTC ever stolen?  Hmmm.
newbie
Activity: 11
Merit: 0
December 10, 2013, 10:02:03 PM
(0.5M bitcoins assumed lost)
Heh, five of those are mine.

Sad
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1006
First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold
December 10, 2013, 08:30:14 PM
Anyone interested in running a similar breakdown for litecoin?  It's probably even more lopsided.
hero member
Activity: 632
Merit: 500
December 10, 2013, 07:54:42 PM

I found that interesting thread because of that article on r/litecoin  Smiley

I have some questions for you guys.
- What are the pros and cons of that situation?
- Is there any similar economic situation in history?
- Can the market be tricked by owning such a vast amount of volume?
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
December 10, 2013, 03:41:14 PM

Yay Risto, boo business insider for making things sound scary.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
December 09, 2013, 06:15:33 PM
satashi and his friends should give their portion away to publics

second that. Once the hoarding chinese and fund managers in new york realize that a few persons hold as much as one third of all the coins, they will surely not trust it anymore.

It depends who you need to trust. In the current system we are forced to "trust" in the banks, which in turn are free to abuse that "trust" in any way they want at taxpayer's expense. Ever since Bitcoin started, Satoshi or anyone has had very little influence on the network's operation. Everybody has power in direct proportion to his willingness to spend the coins that he has. So Satoshi has no power unless he spends his coins, also you have no power if you don't have many or any coins.

The kind of power Satoshi has is not comparable to the kind of power a central bank has. Satoshis power is used up when he spends coins. Central banks have real superpower, it doesn't diminish by use.

Satoshi and friends should give their coins to anyone they choose, not be "forced" to give it to the "public" (wtf), which is not even possible.

It doesn't matter if some huge fund managers decide to get rid of their coins. Bitcoin is money, it changes hands. Someone will spend these early coins at some point (or not, who knows). Satoshi might buy himself a small continent or something and buy services from the population. So what? It's all voluntary, right?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
December 09, 2013, 06:21:55 AM
satashi and his friends should give their portion away to publics

second that. Once the hoarding chinese and fund managers in new york realize that a few persons hold as much as one third of all the coins, they will surely not trust it anymore.

It depends who you need to trust. In the current system we are forced to "trust" in the banks, which in turn are free to abuse that "trust" in any way they want at taxpayer's expense. Ever since Bitcoin started, Satoshi or anyone has had very little influence on the network's operation. Everybody has power in direct proportion to his willingness to spend the coins that he has. So Satoshi has no power unless he spends his coins, also you have no power if you don't have many or any coins.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1000
December 09, 2013, 04:21:41 AM
I have been tracking my bitcoin holding total on http://btc.ondn.net/search for a couple of weeks and I observe that my rank has been moving lower, meaning that there are likely fewer holders with more than BTC me than there were two weeks ago. I think that my rank has improved because I am holding beyond the 100-1000x price increase that tempted other early adopters to sell. Notably my rank improved the most during the crash/correction of December 4-6.

I expect this trend to continue, and will look for it in your updates.

Anyone who follows the SSS should move up in the ranks versus those who don't (except lucky ones who forget or are unusually bold, but those people have to be pretty rare).
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
December 08, 2013, 03:16:00 PM
satashi and his friends should give their portion away to publics

second that. Once the hoarding chinese and fund managers in new york realize that a few persons hold as much as one third of all the coins, they will surely not trust it anymore.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
December 07, 2013, 11:39:47 PM
3. Dec 2013

#People#Bitcoins#TotalBitcoins
47BTC10k+3.5M
880BTC1k-10k2.6M
10kBTC100-1k3.0M
63kBTC10-1001.8M
210kBTC1-100.6M
350kBTC0.1-10.1M
350kBTC0.01-0.10.0M
210kBTC0.001-0.010.0M

Total: 11.6M bitcoins (0.5M bitcoins assumed lost)

1,200,000 people own bitcoins that are valued at more than $1 (BTC0.001 or more)
280,000 people own bitcoins that are valued at more than $1,000 (BTC1 or more), up from 120,000 last month
930 people own bitcoin that are valued at more than $1 million (BTC1,000 or more)
1 person owns bitcoins that are valued at more than $1 billion (Satoshi, estimated to be BTC980,000)

Changes from previous month:
- Bitcoin total number adjusted to account for increase in money supply
- Thoroughly re-engineered the number of bitcoin users from original data of the userbases of several services + blockchain usage. This shows that the last month estimate was probably too small, and perhaps 50% of the growth in number of users can be attributed to correction of a previous underestimate.
- Corrected the highest bracket a little bit (BTC0.6M Smiley ) upwards because it was over-corrected downwards last time. Number of holders in this category went down a little but we have better estimate of the holdings. As this is a base case model, we do not assume large, completely anonymous entities without at least circumstantial evidence of their holdings.
- Number of people in each bracket behaves according to binomial distribution as found in another data with the parameters: total=1.2 million users, highest bracket=fixed, #of_coins=fixed.

As a result:
- Bracket 1,000-10,000 saw the greatest loss -20%, bracket 100-1,000 lost 10%. Sub-BTC10 holdings gained a lot.

I have been tracking my bitcoin holding total on http://btc.ondn.net/search for a couple of weeks and I observe that my rank has been moving lower, meaning that there are likely fewer holders with more than BTC me than there were two weeks ago. I think that my rank has improved because I am holding beyond the 100-1000x price increase that tempted other early adopters to sell. Notably my rank improved the most during the crash/correction of December 4-6.

I expect this trend to continue, and will look for it in your updates.


sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
I am Citizenfive.
December 07, 2013, 09:49:44 PM
So apparently 80% realize and up to 20% are willing to panic.

So this is how the concentration of ownership in Bitcoin possibly increases, as the weak hands pass it to the strong hands.

If everybody could follow the simple advice "invest just what you can afford to lose" we wouldn't have such an insane amount of weak hands and panickers. BTC 's have grown so much that by investing just a modest amount everybody who has stayed in for 12-24 months is looking at huge profits, probably life changing for many.

Making a long story short: investing just what you can afford to lose and holding like a mofo until you hit your "profit taking" targets (or "rake" target as risto call it) has never failed on anybody. Never. Why people should throw money they cannot afford to lose in an experimental beta software which is extremely fragile and volatile, that I cannot understand. I guess the answer is "greed and stupidity"

I think that even people that are investing what they can afford to lose panic too.  People hate feeling like they are losing money, even if it is a very small percentage of their portfolio.  I have a friend that has way more money than I do, with investment properties, plenty of money in the bank etc.  She did not get in soon enough before the last rise.  I advised her to buy right at $200.  She took her time and then finally bought at around $500 up to $700 then stopped, regretting of course not buying sooner.  She can afford to lose the amount she invested but she is totally panicking and calling us and wanting to know what to do.  Our advice was "Hold or buy more because they are cheap now."  I am not sure what she decided yet.  I would not be shocked if she sold off the coins and decided that Bitcoin is not for her.  I explained that the price would most likely drop and that she could be "underwater" for a while and that was just normal stuff with Bitcoin and the true winners just buy in and hold for the long haul, the "long haul" being only a year or two! That does not seem so hard to me but I guess I am more patient then some?

Sorry to rant here but I think that most people are just skittish to quick losses.  Some of us have learned, from experience, not to sweat these drops much and just wait for a little while.

Then she just does not understand that nothing goes ONLY up, and that BTC is extremely volatile and a gamble in itself. Probably she shouldn't be investing in something so experimental and risky.

Advice I gave to my friends that invested this summer? Just consider this money as completely lost. You are choosing to participate in an experiment that might very well fail, just do not get emotional and stick to your plan, which should contemplate a total loss.

Investing in BTC is like flipping a coin. If you cannot stand seeing the coin flipping in the air, then leave BTC alone.

That's what I tell my friends too, especially since they're having me manage their coins with my own in one big fund (we split the profit I make 50/50)... but yet, to-date, knock on wood, the whole portfolio is up 144% since October 15th (if you measure in bitcoins -- down 12% after the crash if you measure in equivalent fiat). Call me crazy, but I bias my trades with the underlying belief that Bitcoin trends upwards vs. USD as you expand the time interval... Besides, it only needs to stabilize above about $840 USD to break even on that metric (disregarding any future movement captures I attempt). I'm pretty sure it can hit that.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
December 07, 2013, 01:49:39 PM
Sad thing is that most people don't understand the basics of BTC. This is not due to one's IQ mark, rather than lack of interest in reading economics and financial rules. Most people simple have lack of knowledge. I had never previously involved with macroeconomics or financial assets. To be honest; I never thought that these kind of stuff had ANYTHING to do with science. I even was in the middle of great debates with "financial analysts", "Marketing & Treasurer managers" and so forth... I called them crooks.  Grin

Economy should be simple math: 1+1=2 that's about it.

Economy is based on "money". Money in Greek is called "Xρήμα" (Chrema) from the word "Xρήζω" (I use). So this is the first thing to know when you want to know what money is. It's called like that because it's for USE. Stashing is almost as useful as burning or burying money under the earth. Circulation is what matters most. Circulation has its disadvantages though. One of the first inflations was through the "worn out" paper money which the banks should recirculate. Greed is embedded to the human DNA. Whenever there's money and a man (or woman) involved there will be inflation; aka:create money out of thin air... or most commonly said: THEFT.

Here comes bitcoin. Bitcoin is nothing of all these. No inflation. No middle men involved. No creation of money out of thin air. No THEFT! Anyone with basic knowledge of the economic system knows that bitcoin is the next big thing. The old one is dead and buried. People tend to compare it with the early year's internet. This may be true... I really don't know. But I know, if we want a better society, we need a better way to pay and get paid. We need bitcoin (or something like that).

Buy and hold!
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
December 07, 2013, 12:54:42 PM
So apparently 80% realize and up to 20% are willing to panic.

So this is how the concentration of ownership in Bitcoin possibly increases, as the weak hands pass it to the strong hands.

If everybody could follow the simple advice "invest just what you can afford to lose" we wouldn't have such an insane amount of weak hands and panickers. BTC 's have grown so much that by investing just a modest amount everybody who has stayed in for 12-24 months is looking at huge profits, probably life changing for many.

Making a long story short: investing just what you can afford to lose and holding like a mofo until you hit your "profit taking" targets (or "rake" target as risto call it) has never failed on anybody. Never. Why people should throw money they cannot afford to lose in an experimental beta software which is extremely fragile and volatile, that I cannot understand. I guess the answer is "greed and stupidity"

I think that even people that are investing what they can afford to lose panic too.  People hate feeling like they are losing money, even if it is a very small percentage of their portfolio.  I have a friend that has way more money than I do, with investment properties, plenty of money in the bank etc.  She did not get in soon enough before the last rise.  I advised her to buy right at $200.  She took her time and then finally bought at around $500 up to $700 then stopped, regretting of course not buying sooner.  She can afford to lose the amount she invested but she is totally panicking and calling us and wanting to know what to do.  Our advice was "Hold or buy more because they are cheap now."  I am not sure what she decided yet.  I would not be shocked if she sold off the coins and decided that Bitcoin is not for her.  I explained that the price would most likely drop and that she could be "underwater" for a while and that was just normal stuff with Bitcoin and the true winners just buy in and hold for the long haul, the "long haul" being only a year or two! That does not seem so hard to me but I guess I am more patient then some?

Sorry to rant here but I think that most people are just skittish to quick losses.  Some of us have learned, from experience, not to sweat these drops much and just wait for a little while.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
December 07, 2013, 10:00:05 AM
So apparently 80% realize and up to 20% are willing to panic.

So this is how the concentration of ownership in Bitcoin possibly increases, as the weak hands pass it to the strong hands.

If everybody could follow the simple advice "invest just what you can afford to lose" we wouldn't have such an insane amount of weak hands and panickers. BTC 's have grown so much that by investing just a modest amount everybody who has stayed in for 12-24 months is looking at huge profits, probably life changing for many.

Making a long story short: investing just what you can afford to lose and holding like a mofo until you hit your "profit taking" targets (or "rake" target as risto call it) has never failed on anybody. Never. Why people should throw money they cannot afford to lose in an experimental beta software which is extremely fragile and volatile, that I cannot understand. I guess the answer is "greed and stupidity"
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
December 07, 2013, 07:15:06 AM
So apparently 80% realize and up to 20% are willing to panic.

So this is how the concentration of ownership in Bitcoin possibly increases, as the weak hands pass it to the strong hands.

Which is *exactly* what happened tonight... Wink
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
December 06, 2013, 07:46:38 PM
Moral of the story that Germany learns was: Inflation causes Hitlers. It's why Germany, and the European Central Bank, are so extremely resistant to inflation, and are willing to let countries collapse or do forced seisures, than inflate the Euro.

Congrats, the bolded part is the most shallow oversimplification I've ever read in this forum.

FYI: Germany just had a period of huge inflation (because of over-liquidity) at the beginning of the '90s because of the reunification and the assimilation at a fixed rate of the DDR Ostmark.

And BTW: Weimars hyperinflation has nothing to do with the the current bundesbank/ecb policy, that's just a stupid and unfounded meme - on the contrary the German experience during the reunification has everything to do with it - current German policies where in fact implemented during and shortly after that reunification.
legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
December 06, 2013, 05:04:36 PM
Erm, they have been inflating like crazy in 2012 at least. Not sure about 2013, do you have any data?

I think all central banks love inflation. It's their foundation.

Lately, yeah. They probably had no choice, but they were fighting it like crazy. If you look at German Deutchmarks, and then the Euro years before the 2008 crazness, you'll see that they are fairly flat.

There is always a choice. No excuses.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
December 06, 2013, 04:39:24 PM
Erm, they have been inflating like crazy in 2012 at least. Not sure about 2013, do you have any data?

I think all central banks love inflation. It's their foundation.

Lately, yeah. They probably had no choice, but they were fighting it like crazy. If you look at German Deutchmarks, and then the Euro years before the 2008 crazness, you'll see that they are fairly flat.
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