I think I interjected a chart showing how transactions are not increasing as fast as price and market cap, thus pointing towards concentration.
Please explain. I do not see why that is necessarily so.
Edit: also I have an error above. Replace market CAP with market PRICE. Then the following makes more sense.
Here is
the chart again.
We can suspect much of the increase may be speculative trading transactions, due to higher price. Although we can't be sure with the small float, on the other hand if one was buying in size they might want to obscure it with many smaller transactions.
I suppose it was recently I read that SatoshiDice was 57% of all transactions.
Although we can't establish a mathematical relationship that says transactions much increase as fast as price to indicate a lowering of concentration, I was instead thinking that when transitioning from a speculative investment to currency, we would expect to see market PRICE growing slower than transactions. Because a stable price relative to commerce is key feature of a currency (especially since Bitcoin doesn't have any other real feature, just delusion* about features it really doesn't have).
So I believe you are correct to call me out. And the statement I would make instead is that it appears that Bitcoin is still in speculative mode and not yet transitioning to currency mode.
And again, the link above contains my (and other respected Austrian economists') thesis that it is impossible for a coin that is primary owned for speculation to shift to a currency without a crash first in price.
I would now like to say this is going to happen to any crypto-currency, because there is no way to grow interest in such without a speculative investment.
Notwithstanding that, I believe it is possible to design an altcoin which has less maniac* speculation and more significant currency adoption along the way, leading to a much less significant collapse in price when it stabilizes to a currency. I think this important, because if Bitcoin reaches the level of bubble I expect, the crash could wipe out so many people that electronic currency might be handed by society to the government to regulate and own, i.e. fiat.
* Bitcoiners, "only 21 million coins, it is going to $1 million, never sell any coin, we will be the new wealthy and rule the world". Etc..
That mania means we will get the reverse mania emotions on the bubble pop. I would prefer to have a more rational speculative rise, based on more sound technical design and a more sound reasons for being a currency. Specially Bitcoin has
absolutely no anonymous future. It has no future whatsoever funded by transaction fees. Etc.. I have covered this in detail in recent posts. Just read my archive.