Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner - page 28.

rpietila

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Quote from: wachtwoord on November 24, 2013, 11:39:24 AM

If there really are only 11.5M unique addresses I would estimate the number of users to be 1M at the absolute maximum.

Note that I don't consider people without at least a single Bitcoin address (so only held via 3rd parties) to be Bitcoin users. Some people will probably disagree with this assumption.

Yes you are right they are not users, but I would classify them as "owners" still, with the disputed definition of ownership.

wachtwoord

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If there really are only 11.5M unique addresses I would estimate the number of users to be 1M at the absolute maximum.

Note that I don't consider people without at least a single Bitcoin address (so only held via 3rd parties) to be Bitcoin users. Some people will probably disagree with this assumption.

niothor

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in defi we trust

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 11:26:30 AM

Quote from: Rampion on November 24, 2013, 11:21:23 AM

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

I use at least 100 addresses per year, and i don't consider myself a heavy user. Just imagine how many addresses do Bitcoin businesses use.

Another thing that speaks against the millions-of-users hypothesis is bitcoin price. The market cap is $10 billion. Most of the users have bought in before this month. Even if their average investment is only $1000, this means that number of users is only 2 million. But many have bought last year or so, making their stash worth much more than $1000, even after heavy selling.

With 20 mils transactions in the blockchain I find it hard to believe.

rpietila

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Quote from: Rampion on November 24, 2013, 11:21:23 AM

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

I use at least 100 addresses per year, and i don't consider myself a heavy user. Just imagine how many addresses do Bitcoin businesses use.

Another thing that speaks against the millions-of-users hypothesis is bitcoin price. The market cap is $10 billion. Most of the users have bought in before this month. Even if their average investment is only $1000, this means that number of users is only 2 million. But many have bought last year or so, making their stash worth much more than $1000, even after heavy selling.

Rampion

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Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

I use at least 100 addresses per year, and i don't consider myself a heavy user. Just imagine how many addresses do Bitcoin businesses use.

niothor

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Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 11:10:07 AM

Quote from: niothor on November 24, 2013, 11:03:03 AM

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address
Total 11,462,007
10mils really don't matter so ......

The addresses above 0.001 threshold could almost directly be mapped to holders 1:1. But I know that holders use several addresses so that has to be accounted for.

What are the 10 million dust addresses anyway? Nobody buys with $0.10 Huh

I know I'm gonna regret for saying this but..
People who heard about bitcoin , downloaded bitcoin-qt, tried to earn some satoshi with faucets and gave up.

rpietila

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Quote from: niothor on November 24, 2013, 11:03:03 AM

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address
Total 11,462,007
10mils really don't matter so ......

The addresses above 0.001 threshold could almost directly be mapped to holders 1:1. But I know that holders use several addresses so that has to be accounted for.

What are the 10 million dust addresses anyway? Nobody buys with $0.10 Huh

wachtwoord

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Quote from: niothor on November 24, 2013, 11:03:03 AM

Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address
Total 11,462,007
10mils really don't matter so ......

Wow, I would have guessed a number a few orders of magnitude above 11.5 M ...

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

It may be that many people are holding their coins on MtGox. Perhaps because they don't feel comfortable holding them themselves.

Here's the magazine where I saw the interview:

niothor

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Quote from: rpietila on November 24, 2013, 10:58:10 AM

Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address
Total 11,462,007
10mils really don't matter so ......

niothor

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Activity: 826

Merit: 501

in defi we trust

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: cr1776 on November 22, 2013, 04:11:22 PM

I had mentioned this elsewhere, but it is apropos for here (you may have to follow the trail after this too):
https://blockchain.info/block-index/441990

https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

Whose money is it?

over in the speculation wall observer thread i saw it mentioned that this was likely bitstamps money. no idea how accurate that is.

Bitstamp preparing to do arbitrage at gox. =))))
I would really LMAO if those bitcoins hit gox addresses.

rpietila

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Quote from: Zangelbert Bingledack on November 24, 2013, 10:48:32 AM

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

I heard that only about 3 million bitcoin addresses are used. I would say that the number of addresses > number of users.

Myself, I have used dozens of addresses, and don't consider to be a heavy user of addresses.

Zangelbert Bingledack

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Quote from: rpietila on November 22, 2013, 03:01:18 AM

- My gut feeling is that number of bitcoin holders was estimated a little too small last time - an analysis of Bitcoin client and wallet software userbases, (Rassah!

) plus Coinbase users, Bittiraha.fi users and Localbitcoins activity, and new user count in exchanges, is what we need to find more reliable figures.

In Japan, 週刊新潮 (Shukan Shincho, a weekly news magazine/tabloid) published a section on Bitcoin this week featuring an interview with a MtGox rep. The rep said that they have 720,000 users, of which 400,000 are active/frequent, and that 20% of their users are Chinese, up from 4% in April.

It looks from this like several million will be the correct figure.

User705

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First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: wachtwoord on November 22, 2013, 04:20:16 AM

I'll leave this here http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealth

Nothing to do with the current situation, but likely the model it's evolving towards.

Thank you. Very good reading. (It is just sorry that the matter seemingly cannot be discussed without envying the top of the pyramid and labeling being wealthy as being greedy and/or a powermonger and/or a sociopath.)

Yes but to really get to the top it's almost a must to both be power hungry and a sociopath not in a bad connotation but clearly you'd be very different as compared to the rest of society.

Rampion

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: cr1776 on November 22, 2013, 04:11:22 PM

I had mentioned this elsewhere, but it is apropos for here (you may have to follow the trail after this too):
https://blockchain.info/block-index/441990

https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

Whose money is it?

over in the speculation wall observer thread i saw it mentioned that this was likely bitstamps money. no idea how accurate that is.

fyi: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/11/23/heres-who-probably-did-that-massive-150000000-bitcoin-transaction/

cr1776

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I had mentioned this elsewhere, but it is apropos for here (you may have to follow the trail after this too):
https://blockchain.info/block-index/441990

https://blockchain.info/tx/1c12443203a48f42cdf7b1acee5b4b1c1fedc144cb909a3bf5edbffafb0cd204

:-)

Quote from: rpietila on November 22, 2013, 03:01:18 AM

Let's start working on the December 1 update of the list!

- A more careful analysis of the blockchain is in my todo-list. What I have in mind is a relation table of "holder activity profile" -> "number of accounts".

- Please check the TOP-500 Richest list, even though it is feeble what comes to accuracy. Apart from Satoshi, FBI and Loaded, no one has admitted controlling more than BTC100,000. (The BTC111,000 address is DPR's afaik.)

- My gut feeling is that number of bitcoin holders was estimated a little too small last time - an analysis of Bitcoin client and wallet software userbases, (Rassah!

) plus Coinbase users, Bittiraha.fi users and Localbitcoins activity, and new user count in exchanges, is what we need to find more reliable figures.

3, 2, 1, GO! BTC Grin

BTC

wachtwoord

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I'll leave this here http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealth

Nothing to do with the current situation, but likely the model it's evolving towards.

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Let's start working on the December 1 update of the list!

- A more careful analysis of the blockchain is in my todo-list. What I have in mind is a relation table of "holder activity profile" -> "number of accounts".

- Please check the TOP-500 Richest list, even though it is feeble what comes to accuracy. Apart from Satoshi, FBI and Loaded, no one has admitted controlling more than BTC100,000. (The BTC111,000 address is DPR's afaik.)

- My gut feeling is that number of bitcoin holders was estimated a little too small last time - an analysis of Bitcoin client and wallet software userbases, (Rassah!

) plus Coinbase users, Bittiraha.fi users and Localbitcoins activity, and new user count in exchanges, is what we need to find more reliable figures.

3, 2, 1, GO! BTC Grin

BTC

flibbr

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Quote from: molecular on November 03, 2013, 05:22:15 PM

I'm still syncing my bitcoin-abe db (the process takes forever, many times longer than a blockchain download, currently at block 180,000, 3.3 million transactions (it's starting to slow down considerably, I guess satoshi dice is hitting hard around that time). I keep forgetting to resume it, turning it off when I use the machine because it clogs up all my IO), but once that's done I can offer to query pretty much any kind of statistics from the blockchain. Like number of coins that are moved "regularly", number of old coins never moved and such.

.. tell me about it... once you get to 180k it goes so much slower..

Litecoin is 450k blocks... ouch! . . and I also want to do BTC testnet aswell... many many many more days processing to go Undecided

rpietila

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Quote from: Tirapon on November 03, 2013, 05:13:29 PM

@rpietila:

This is an interesting thread, and I think you've done a great job with it. I have been wondering about the effect that 'strong hands' have on the price, and thought that maybe some of the results here could be used to try to make an estimation.

Many people here on the forums probably follow the 'buy and hold' strategy, at least to some extent. I have some BTC in cold storage which I'll be holding 'for the longest time', and I trade with the rest to try to increase my holdings (as well as to make a bit of extra spending money). This removes coins from circulation, leaving less BTC to be chased by the same money.

I wonder therefore, what the total amount of BTC actually in circulation might be? Could we estimate how many BTC are in cold storage, and unlikely to be sold in a panic when price drops X% over the weekend?

My gut feeling is that most of the bitcoins are in strong hands (and the largest holders are definitely strong, otherwise they would not be large). But that is just a gut feeling, molecular is greatly appreciated to perform any kind of analysis on that.

Quote from: ?? on ??

Interesting, and mildly disturbing facts there...

What do you find problematic?

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