Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner - page 30.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: conspirosphere.tk on October 30, 2013, 11:34:09 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on October 30, 2013, 11:30:32 AM

What's the Y-axis?

"increase in one month in BTC", that is how much wallets grow (Y) according the wallet size (X). That's what I get from it at least

Maybe it's because it's almost dinner time, but I have no idea what you meant by that. How do they know how much people's holdings grow over time and why is this relevant here?

conspirosphere.tk

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Bitcoin is antisemitic

Quote from: wachtwoord on October 30, 2013, 11:30:32 AM

What's the Y-axis?

"increase in one month in BTC", that is how much wallets grow in 1 month (Y) according to the wallet balance (X). That's what I get from it at least

wachtwoord

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What's the Y-axis?

conspirosphere.tk

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Bitcoin is antisemitic

check out this:
Rich-Get-Richer Effect Observed in BitCoin Digital Currency Network, August 22, 2013

Econophysicists studying the way people accumulate a new form of digital currency say they have observed the famous rich-get-richer effect for the first time.

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/518541/rich-get-richer-effect-observed-in-bitcoin-digital-currency-network/

[edit]: maybe if it gets too concentrated it may implode due to a shrinking users base

gaston909

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I believe Max has about 20,000 or at least he did, he may have moved 1/2k into Bitcoin based investments.

calian

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Another data point is Max Keiser said on his show "it feels good to be a bitcoin millionaire" back when doing so would have taken about 15k BTC.

wachtwoord

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Quote from: BitChick on October 29, 2013, 07:33:51 PM

Well, here is another big holder with about 15,000 BTC: http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/29/chamath-palihapitiya-owns-5-million-in-bitcoins-wants-to-own-10-15-million/

I kind of figured he was a big holder. He is always bullish about Bitcoin in all the interviews and has enough capital to purchase a good amount.

Not a bad ally to have and now he has the financial incentive too.

BitChick

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Well, here is another big holder with about 15,000 BTC: http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/29/chamath-palihapitiya-owns-5-million-in-bitcoins-wants-to-own-10-15-million/

I kind of figured he was a big holder. He is always bullish about Bitcoin in all the interviews and has enough capital to purchase a good amount.

impulse

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Quote from: 600watt on October 29, 2013, 05:04:34 PM

compare this to the actual numbers of fiat-millionaires in the world:

Quote

A record-breaking 12 million people around the world were millionaires last year, with the US experiencing the biggest jump in super-rich residents.

bitcoin is strong but very very tiny. imagine it being strong and big/mainstream. every single bitcoin owner will have a blast.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/10158420/A-record-breaking-number-of-millionaires-in-the-world.html

What's more is that there are more billionaires in the world then there are likely people with more than 1000 bitcoins.

600watt

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Quote from: rpietila on October 22, 2013, 01:30:06 PM

TL;DR: At present only 120,000 people in the world (1 in every 20,000 people with the capability to do so) have a bitcoin holding valued at least $1,000.

The intent of this thread is to find out and update the statistic on how bitcoins as investment/holdings are distributed according to the size of actual holding (note that this differs from the largest addresses -list).

The intent is not to try to identify individual holders or the size of their holdings.

Assumptions and conventions:
- Bitcoins are overwhelmingly controlled by individuals (ie. no significant corporate/public sector holdings exist); if bitcoins are held by an institution, they are credited to the beneficial owner(s)
- The brackets are logarithmic; the highest bracket is BTC10,000+, second highest is 1,000-10,000, etc.

The consensus is as follows:

26. Oct 2013

#People	#Bitcoins	#TotalBitcoins
50	BTC10k+	2.9M
1100	BTC1k-10k	3.1M
12k	BTC100-1k	3.3M
58k	BTC10-100	1.8M
110k	BTC1-10	0.4M
110k	BTC0.1-1	0.1M
57k	BTC0-0.1	0.0M

Total: 11.5M bitcoins, 350k owners
120,000 people own bitcoins that are valued at more than $1,000 (BTC5 or more).

compare this to the actual numbers of fiat-millionaires in the world:

Quote

A record-breaking 12 million people around the world were millionaires last year, with the US experiencing the biggest jump in super-rich residents.

bitcoin is strong but very very tiny. imagine it being strong and big/mainstream. every single bitcoin owner will have a blast.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/expat-money/10158420/A-record-breaking-number-of-millionaires-in-the-world.html

wachtwoord

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: rpietila on October 29, 2013, 12:50:50 PM

The Pizza happened in 22.5.2010. It is good to read the whole history.

I would be tempted to use 0.0025 (set by the pizza) as the exchange rate throughout 2009-2010 until end of June. In July Mt.Gox opened, and after that the volume-weighted price of Mt.Gox. At some point of time in mid-2013 a switch to Bitstamp.

Bitcoin has been operational for 1760 days, and in this period the price has risen by a factor of 80,000. This is 10.39x per year, or +21.5% per month.

The OTC Bitcoin exchange rate was actually a bit higher than but the one offering the pizza wanted to make sure someone would take him up on it.

Where can I find the time-series on the OTC rate?

Sorry, I have no accurate data. I remember when I joined the forum a year after the fact that in discussion threads this came forward. I don't know if anyone mentioned actual values. So my information is qualitative and anecdotal at best. Sorry I should have included this in my comment.

rpietila

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The Pizza happened in 22.5.2010. It is good to read the whole history.

I would be tempted to use 0.0025 (set by the pizza) as the exchange rate throughout 2009-2010 until end of June. In July Mt.Gox opened, and after that the volume-weighted price of Mt.Gox. At some point of time in mid-2013 a switch to Bitstamp.

Bitcoin has been operational for 1760 days, and in this period the price has risen by a factor of 80,000. This is 10.39x per year, or +21.5% per month.

BitchicksHusband

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Quote from: rpietila on October 29, 2013, 11:54:59 AM

Quote from: Zephir on October 29, 2013, 09:58:59 AM

You can find similarities to the distribution of wealth even in the investments of just-dice: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AipZG8vQw9AXdFdzZzVsc1BVSlQydWRhYnhDSllfbmc#gid=0

A guy just posted this: Zipf´s Law

btw nice thread.

I applied the standard analysis to the Just-Dice data, trying to post it here.

Findings:
- Somewhat small total number of investors causes random variance.
- 95% of investments belong to 20% of investors, trumping Pareto distribution of 80/20, and giving credence to consensus (OP) estimate of 95/20.
- Mean investment is BTC82 but median is only BTC2.6!
- 55% invest less than what I think is sensible to invest (BTC5) - given that investing inevitably brings overhead and time is money
- The second derivative test shows values between 0.25-0.58 which is fairly good considering random factors, but in addition there is a clear outlier in 0.01-0.1, which bracket sees more investors than there should be (the most popular bracket by number of investors is 1-10, by investment 100-1000)

Interesting on the Pareto distribution. So are we saying that early adoption tends to be closer to 95/20 and then evens out over time to 80/20 once it become popular and universal?

rpietila

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Quote from: Zephir on October 29, 2013, 09:58:59 AM

You can find similarities to the distribution of wealth even in the investments of just-dice: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AipZG8vQw9AXdFdzZzVsc1BVSlQydWRhYnhDSllfbmc#gid=0

A guy just posted this: Zipf´s Law

btw nice thread.

I applied the standard analysis to the Just-Dice data, trying to post it here.

Findings:
- Somewhat small total number of investors causes random variance.
- 95% of investments belong to 20% of investors, trumping Pareto distribution of 80/20, and giving credence to consensus (OP) estimate of 95/20.
- Mean investment is BTC82 but median is only BTC2.6!
- 55% invest less than what I think is sensible to invest (BTC5) - given that investing inevitably brings overhead and time is money
- The second derivative test shows values between 0.25-0.58 which is fairly good considering random factors, but in addition there is a clear outlier in 0.01-0.1, which bracket sees more investors than there should be (the most popular bracket by number of investors is 1-10, by investment 100-1000)

rpietila

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Some points of interest should be researched :
- the time when difficulty reached a level where solo mining on CPU could no longer get you a block reward
- and the time when the "generate coins" was removed from the bitcoin client GUI
(probably around the same time - unfortunately I was not here)
Before this date we can imagine than a number of downloads ended up with wallets containing n x 50 BTC.
Probably a lot of these wallets are lost or almost lost (except for this norvegian guy who just bought a house)

Sourceforge shows 1,000 Bitcoin downloads in 2009, compared to 16,000 in 1-6/2010.

The first difficulty adjustment was in the turn of 2009-2010. By 6/2010, it had already risen to 20.

Then Mt.Gox was opened and coins immediately received much larger value than before.

I would think that there is a ratio of (successful installations:downloads).

Rassah

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Quote from: rpietila on October 29, 2013, 10:56:18 AM

Quote from: Rassah on October 29, 2013, 10:49:14 AM

So I would estimate the current number of bitcoin users at 1,500,000 at the bare minimum, and more likely closer to 2.9 to 3.25 mil.

That was also my original estimate, but it is unrealistic because then most of the accounts would need to be too small to be bothered.

None who reads this has a small bitcoin balance, but do you even know of people who have, say, less than BTC1?

I knew at least 4 who have just BTC1. Some of them wanted to see what it was and just bought BTC1 to play around with, others got BTC1 on a paper wallet as a gift and still have it. Not sure about those who have less than 1BTC. I suspect there may be a few newbies with that amount, if they were only comfortable putting about $100 into it to start.

rpietila

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Quote from: Rassah on October 29, 2013, 10:49:14 AM

So I would estimate the current number of bitcoin users at 1,500,000 at the bare minimum, and more likely closer to 2.9 to 3.25 mil.

That was also my original estimate, but it is unrealistic because then most of the accounts would need to be too small to be bothered.

None who reads this has a small bitcoin balance, but do you even know of people who have, say, less than BTC1?

Edit: thanks for the info. I need to process it carefully.

Rassah

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Quote from: rpietila on October 29, 2013, 10:34:14 AM

Quote from: Rassah on October 25, 2013, 12:18:39 PM

Minimum number of all users, or minimum number of users in the top brackets? Because we know we've had over 100,000 bitcoin users since Summer of 2011.

Sorry to bring up this question repeatedly:
What do we know concerning number of users (now or at any time in history)?
- Blockchain activity?
- Downloads of Bitcoin client and wallet software
- Forum accounts
- Number of users in exchanges
- Number of users in other services
- Other ways of receiving this info

We knew there were about 65,000 users on MtGox as far back as Summer of 2011. MtGox also claimed to have 25,000 new applications every month this past winter, and 50,000 new applications in March and April. Blockchain.info also recently mentioned reaching 300,000 wallets. The defunct instawaller boasted about having over 1 mil wallets, though many of those may have been throwaways. We also have a list of Bitcoin-QT downloads that shows that this wallet has been downloaded 2.9mil times already (http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2009-01-01+to+2013-04-30). Even if some of those were downloaded and abandoned, there are tons of users who used other services, like blockchain, electrum, multibit, or android wallets instead. So I would estimate the current number of bitcoin users at 1,500,000 at the bare minimum, and more likely closer to 2.9 to 3.25 mil.

rpietila

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Quote from: Rassah on October 25, 2013, 12:18:39 PM

Minimum number of all users, or minimum number of users in the top brackets? Because we know we've had over 100,000 bitcoin users since Summer of 2011.

Sorry to bring up this question repeatedly:
What do we know concerning number of users (now or at any time in history)?
- Blockchain activity?
- Downloads of Bitcoin client and wallet software
- Forum accounts
- Number of users in exchanges
- Number of users in other services
- Other ways of receiving this info

Zephir

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You can find similarities to the distribution of wealth even in the investments of just-dice: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AipZG8vQw9AXdFdzZzVsc1BVSlQydWRhYnhDSllfbmc#gid=0

A guy just posted this: Zipf´s Law

btw nice thread.

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